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Increasing Size During Drawdown
- Thread starter oldtime
- Start date
how many times do I have to tell you? The coin has no memory whether it just came up heads or tails, but the bettors do.Quote from Swan Noir:
Yes, of course, scaling into a position is a valid way to enter but thinking the market has a memory (I know he says he does not believe that but that is what he describes) is an entirely different proposition.
In the context of his comments it is doubling down on his full shot.
My job is not to bet on heads or tails
My job is to bet on how much they are going to bet on heads or tails
If I have a strong conviction on the trade and I believe my timing is just off I increase size regularly. If I have to second guess myself then no. Sizing up is a necessary tool but you to know when to use it and when not to use it.
Quote from oldtime:
I'm not talking about averaging down or scaling in or out. I'm talking about a stable strategy that occasionaly has an unusual string of losses. I have faith that if I stay with same size I will pull out of it and eventually go back profitable.
Just wondering if anybody has thought it through.
The idea is to just trade the same strategy but with an increased size, especially since I am already a little undersized to begin with.
Also, like I said, there are times when every trade is a winner no losses. I can either keep doing what I'm doing or just reduce size knowing this can't go on forever.
So it's basically changing size based on how things are going. Not saying I would do it, just asking if any one has run the numbers.
Quote from oldtime:
how many times do I have to tell you? The coin has no memory whether it just came up heads or tails, but the bettors do.
My job is not to bet on heads or tails
My job is to bet on how much they are going to bet on heads or tails
You are totally right, oldtimer. The traditional wisdom of not doubling down is nonsense. Martigaling both ways is a powerful strategy, as long as it stays within your risk parameters. Its a hoot seeing these trading book smart readers argue with you. BY not scaling or martingaling in, the "not so bright" traders are claiming to be able to time exactly, which is complete and utter nonsense. Scaling in either way, allows your entry to be off yet still profit.
surf
well, there's a time and a place for everythingQuote from marketsurfer:
You are totally right, oldtimer. The traditional wisdom of not doubling down is nonsense. Martigaling both ways is a powerful strategy, as long as it stays within your risk parameters. Its a hoot seeing these trading book smart readers argue with you. BY not scaling or martingaling in, the "not so bright" traders are claiming to be able to time exactly, which is complete and utter nonsense. Scaling in either way, allows your entry to be off yet still profit.
surf
I'm just a janitor.
My job is to put everything back in it's proper place, and clean up the mess.
market does have memoryQuote from Swan Noir:
Yes, of course, scaling into a position is a valid way to enter but thinking the market has a memory (I know he says he does not believe that but that is what he describes) is an entirely different proposition.
In the context of his comments it is doubling down on his full shot.
Attachments
Don't be fooled by his change of tune. It is his MO once he has made an ass of himself. He was never talking about scaling into a trade.
Here is what he said:
oh for crying out loud, some of you couldn't think outside a paper bag let alone a box
system buys 100 shrs
hit rate about 50%
winners pay 4 to 1
now after 20 straight losers do you move to 200 shrs? Not asking the mkt to have a memory about how bad it treated me, just asking it to go back and do what it always did and give me back my 50% rate.
Here is what he said:
oh for crying out loud, some of you couldn't think outside a paper bag let alone a box
system buys 100 shrs
hit rate about 50%
winners pay 4 to 1
now after 20 straight losers do you move to 200 shrs? Not asking the mkt to have a memory about how bad it treated me, just asking it to go back and do what it always did and give me back my 50% rate.
ammo, I have read your posts for years and respect what you say. But if you look at the context he is talking trades/setups and you are talking levels and Market Profile. In your context you are correct in his he is absurd.
He wants to believe that the simple act of posting losing trades changes his expectation of a win his next time out of the gate.
He wants to believe that the simple act of posting losing trades changes his expectation of a win his next time out of the gate.
Quote from ammo:
market does have memory
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you me everyone on et,is or should be trying to learn the game that never stops evolving, was just pointing out to him,i guess rudely to you,sorry bout that,that it does,oldtime is trying to get back in a game that has changed drastically in the last 2 decades,oltime,you are going to have to pick one thing ,learn it, then the next, then the next,takes time, no way around it,but it's profitable, the reason you're here