Sure you can do it , in demo , and you'll make money too.
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Increasing Size During Drawdown
- Thread starter oldtime
- Start date
Only a fool would consider this as a viable money management option.
Crazy A
Crazy A
might be psychological, if you are right 70% of the time or higher, there is a mental high ,you feel invincible, aside from the fact that it's really hard to know when the other 30% is happening, it's harder to see because of your belief, you should trade small til your swelled head goes down, if this is the case,only a guess from experience,....... on the other topic of increasing size on drawdowns, one better hope it causes a sustainable loss so one doesn't make a habit of it ,the object is to contain risk and let profits run,if increasing at better prices was part of your original plan and it is within your planned alloted risk, that's another storyQuote from jo0477:
Interesting topic, I was feeling unbeatable for the first half of this year but the past few months have been an absolute bloodbath! I'm in one of those times when every trade seems to move way against me no matter how confident I am in my setup... now I'm feeling like I want to size up because I've finally caught a few good trend legs. But... I'm still making some bad trades and I know this isn't a smart thing to do. Soy plan is to just take some time and sit out these volatile markets for awhile and not try to grab a big move. Hurts when I miss one but not nearly as bad as when I see how wrong was.... too fucked for me right now
oh for crying out loud, some of you couldn't think outside a paper bag let alone a box
system buys 100 shrs
hit rate about 50%
winners pay 4 to 1
now after 20 straight losers do you move to 200 shrs? Not asking the mkt to have a memory about how bad it treated me, just asking it to go back and do what it always did and give me back my 50% rate.
system buys 100 shrs
hit rate about 50%
winners pay 4 to 1
now after 20 straight losers do you move to 200 shrs? Not asking the mkt to have a memory about how bad it treated me, just asking it to go back and do what it always did and give me back my 50% rate.
so it's been about a year now
one thing I know, it's hard to make money in forex if you don't average down
you can average down by price
or you can stick to your classical principles (put it on with a stop)
and average down with size
it all started when I had some usd.jpy on I was monitering
I fell asleep
and when I woke up it had a fantastic profit
I keep a computer by my bed, and I just rolled over and closed it out, and that paid for the whole month
but it could have gone the other way
at first I thought I was making all this money because I wasn't using stops
but after that, I got to thinking how sick I would have felt if that profit was a loss
so I am experimenting with classical trading again (put it on with a stop) and adjusting everything with size
one thing I know, it's hard to make money in forex if you don't average down
you can average down by price
or you can stick to your classical principles (put it on with a stop)
and average down with size
it all started when I had some usd.jpy on I was monitering
I fell asleep
and when I woke up it had a fantastic profit
I keep a computer by my bed, and I just rolled over and closed it out, and that paid for the whole month
but it could have gone the other way
at first I thought I was making all this money because I wasn't using stops
but after that, I got to thinking how sick I would have felt if that profit was a loss
so I am experimenting with classical trading again (put it on with a stop) and adjusting everything with size
Why isn't that asking the market to have a memory? You are increasing size because of the recent departure from the norm ... you remember that and believe that makes it more likely to go back to what you consider normal behavior.
The reality is that inherent in the law of large numbers is the reality that what you have observed in the losing streak is normal behavior WITHIN the methodology that you describe. Taking a subset of 20 losing trade as predictive of the next subset of 10, 20 or 100 trades is exactly the same as thinking if you see the ball fall into red a number of times black become a good bet of the wheel.
Not the case.
The reality is that inherent in the law of large numbers is the reality that what you have observed in the losing streak is normal behavior WITHIN the methodology that you describe. Taking a subset of 20 losing trade as predictive of the next subset of 10, 20 or 100 trades is exactly the same as thinking if you see the ball fall into red a number of times black become a good bet of the wheel.
Not the case.
Quote from oldtime:
oh for crying out loud, some of you couldn't think outside a paper bag let alone a box
system buys 100 shrs
hit rate about 50%
winners pay 4 to 1
now after 20 straight losers do you move to 200 shrs? Not asking the mkt to have a memory about how bad it treated me, just asking it to go back and do what it always did and give me back my 50% rate.
good answerQuote from Swan Noir:
Why isn't that asking the market to have a memory? You are increasing size because of the recent departure from the norm ... you remember that and believe that makes it more likely to go back to what you consider normal behavior.
The reality is that inherent in the law of large numbers is the reality that what you have observed in the losing streak is normal behavior WITHIN the methodology that you describe. Taking a subset of 20 losing trade as predictive of the next subset of 10, 20 or 100 trades is exactly the same as thinking if you see the ball fall into red a number of times black become a good bet of the wheel.
Not the case.
now see?
That's the kind of stuff I was looking for
I use to know all this
if the coin comes up 40 heads in a row, what's the best bet?