Quote from Jack Hershey:
07-06-09 07:19 PM
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Quote from Lucrum:
In his essay On Bullshit philosopher Harry Frankfurt of Princeton University characterizes..
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I take Frankfurt at his word. My post was a contribution; let me further the conversation with an additional level of information. I will build on three prior posts: Spydertrader's where he explains theorder of events in volume terms; "Charts' chart of the volatility/volume matrix; and my post which you characterize as bullshit.
The order of events on volume was depicted by color (Spydertrader) and each color notation represented a traverse of a channel. A short channel was depicted. Below see the complete cycle of traverses required to complete a short then a long trend to comprise a whole cycle:
R2R,_2B, _2R, _2B, B2B. _2R, _2B, _2R, R2R.......
Now as the 8 elements relate to a channel and the traverses contained in the channel.
Channel overlap is shown in the first part of the R2R and the B2B. Specifically it is the time from the old channel not making new head way into S or R, respectively. The treaverse is a test of S or R, respectively, where price ultimately moves away from the S or R and comes to the RTL (Right Trend Line) on diminishing volume. See Thunderdog's failure to understand volume as he protrays his failure. This is one of the things that he did not come to understand.
Thr R of R2R continues as the new trend ends it overlap and an inceasing volume through the second R persists. A dominant traverse follows as _2R. By now you see the the triads are ovrlapped symbolically. Thus, I ommitted the first letter to minimize misunderstandings. I also prolonged the trend a couple of traverses beyond the minimum.
This is the part of R2R that is a dominant traverse from point 1 (the very beginning of R2R) going to point 2. The _2B is the nondominant traverse back to the new RTL and point 3 of the RTL often called simply the trend line.
B2B represents the long new tend overlapping the old completed short trend. The long trend ensues in a symmetric manner to that which was explained for the first short trend.
The end of overlap and the BO of a TL or RTL s what fools most traders who do not use volume as a leading indicator of price. This is the R2R or B2B time where at the 2 moment the volume trough is formed. In a short trend the trough is also formed on the _2R, where the full symbol is B2R. This is the non dominantt black traverse against the tend and then the dominant traverse resuming in concert with the trend.
The hypothesis set first mentioned in my originl post is composed of two parts expressed in the "like kind" requirement of Keynes. One part deals with the time when traverses are "continuing"; the other part deals with the "end effects" of traverses.
Since the parametric measure of the "IF" of the hypothesis, is the time rate of change of volume (increasing or decreasing) expressed in NOW as a binary vector, there is no need for "prediction". The Present tells you all you need to "know that you know". This means Thomas Bayes is out of the picture and Carnap's "logic theory" takes the place of both Bayesian probability and "frequentists" arguments again Bayes.
So volume is a series of hills and valleys that ensue and each climb and descent represents a profit segment EXCEPT during the channel overlap and the BO of price into the first domant of the new trend
One additional safegueard is provided by volume. It is common for the majority of traders to change or "jump " fractals if they are the entry/exit type trader. Most traders who are good handle this in one of two ways. they do annotation or they create logic with output panes to express two aspects of the market operation: its status and its signals.
Obviously status relates to which hypothesis is applicable. Signals relate to the timing of the "end effect" hypothesis. To stay on the correct fractal, volume does the controlling of both status and signals.
thus over 1600 bars, ten decils were developed to divide the pace of the market into 6 zones. One decils for each tail and pairs of decils for the paces nearest the mean, median and mode of volume. Hence the inverted sunset shading of charts posted illustration. The six paces are rightmost on the illustration.
It is important to not allow sentiment change to influence trading at times: volume does that during dominant or non domant "internal" price patterns. After all, less than adequate volume during momentum is what causes internals.
Not trading during the parts of traverse that are away from "end effects" is very important; volume pace status takes care of that as well.status
As you saw the volatility for each volume pace is a Gaussian distribution. A similar table (not yet posted) shows the Gaussian distribution by each pace for over lap. All of this is used on panes for both status and signals. Volume is what shows the Gaussian shifts as to what is in effect at any given volume pace.
Volume pace, in effect, is like reading the time of day in terms of measuring market activity. Look up tables are adjusted according to the non stationarity of the markets. By rolling the 1600 bars that make up the tables, seasonal adjustments are automatic and all are tied to volume pace. Pace is what is used to discern market status and signals. Said another way, pace determines the character of the market at any given time.
the above is gems to some and bullshit to others. It is gems for those who have been able to build their minds and computer ATS's to be differentiating and discerning. To those who cannot do this, then the above still appears to be the bullshit that they want to ignore in their ignorance.
So to lucrum we feel sad for you but your post makes us chuckle.
