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increasing, decreasing, continuing and changing
- Thread starter esjockey
- Start date
H1N1 , lethally, visited Tucson yesterday and more is to come. Even not during the regular flu season, weakened people of any age are at risk.
Now,now.Enough of these scare tactics to convince people the Guru (you) may be taken away before the 'truth' is capable of being dissembled and so your alure is increased.It's enough that you use retired persons to write a glossary of terms when they should be enjoying their hard-earned free time with their spouses.I don't think men use psychological techniques to control people.I wonder if you are man enough to re-post the submission including the phrase: 'those I control' you briefly posted and then removed a few years ago.Do that and I'll regard you as a man.
Now,now.Enough of these scare tactics to convince people the Guru (you) may be taken away before the 'truth' is capable of being dissembled and so your alure is increased.It's enough that you use retired persons to write a glossary of terms when they should be enjoying their hard-earned free time with their spouses.I don't think men use psychological techniques to control people.I wonder if you are man enough to re-post the submission including the phrase: 'those I control' you briefly posted and then removed a few years ago.Do that and I'll regard you as a man.
Quote from jack hershey:
I did not do my usual annual forcast in late December (2008) for the next year (2009). I usually state the locus of the price legs for the year in terms of price and time along with the volume gaussians which drive the legs.
A lot of people will not have jobs, homes, retirement, healthcare, transportation and much clothing, food or good living conditions. This is not new to the world but it will become much more far reaching as people here get serious about making money and helping others out.
Historically, the EOP has entered into the difficulties of others to form a third party. Kennedy did it with labor and business and we have the current fallout of our larger businesses. Today Obama has done it with respect to banking and people's credit; there will be serious fallout in the future. The third "3 way" will happen also; it will include an EOP thrust into people and their quality of life. EOP means Executive Office of the President (202-456-1414).
I was hoping you would elaborate on the legs of the year, the future trends regarding living standards, and the fall out you were referring too in respect to banking and people's credit. Last years legs were spot on.
These are fascinating and scary times with lots of uncertainty. I would love to hear about the macro and fundamental viewpoint.
The last push up in the indexes to new highs last week was on decreasing volume.....lets see what kind of volume and direction price goes next week. This leg has gone for a while and wonder what the next leg has in store for us. A slow summer leg or something out of the ordinary...maybe another ugly fall if we have the summer lull.
Quote from tradingbug:
I was hoping you would elaborate on the legs of the year, the future trends regarding living standards, and the fall out you were referring too in respect to banking and people's credit. Last years legs were spot on.
These are fascinating and scary times with lots of uncertainty. I would love to hear about the macro and fundamental viewpoint.
The last push up in the indexes to new highs last week was on decreasing volume.....lets see what kind of volume and direction price goes next week. This leg has gone for a while and wonder what the next leg has in store for us. A slow summer leg or something out of the ordinary...maybe another ugly fall if we have the summer lull.
We are in the Perfect Storm horse race. I have been doing the new funny math to replace the prior adopted (with no integrity qualmes at all) funny cupula funny maths.
The construct has to do better than the meteorologists who just merged three elements to get their "perfect storm". As I registered the end of the quants around JUN06, I was toting up the ingredients for the macro going on out a ways.
Through 2008 it was easy to juggle the balls then in the air. Now we have gone past the solid balls and the cue ball that will break the 9 balls on the table hasn't shown up, so the order of the 9 elements being holed after the "break" is undetrmined and that makes the timing and the order of events clouded for most.
Obviously, it is in the interest of those who has money, power and information to keep the lid on the stew.
What is very clear (many great expository write ups are in the mill) is that there is no fix possible by those who control money, power and information. The fix is going to come from the "outside". So there is the OPPORTUNITY in the space.
The "storm will be pleu perfect and very subjunctive.
As you see the pros with integrity are missing the huge plays that some "outsiders" picked off (Tutor Jones, et al). Consider Bass for 30 seconds.
This is not about the 60 billion dollar man in the slammer. Integrity went away for the whole crowd controlling money, power and information. Gone, gone, gone.
On 60 minutes we saw the producers not get the script to the talking head and Bernake said that he asked the banks to come up worth 67 billion and he had another trillion too. No one subtracted the difference to come up with a peep in terms of a question. The difference is 933 billion.
The funny maths that will appear from outside will not het any attention. The solutions of the nine dilemmas will not address the dilemmas directly but will be quite amazing workarounds that deal with OPPORTUNITY. That is the nature of the dilemma.
To nail the OPPORTUNITY, is going to be fun. Records were made to be broken. They will be and by "outsiders" who do not need provisions except for operational information.
To explain how to handle the right side of 9 problems by not participating in the dilemmas is has to do with the funny maths expression that handles (not quantifies).
We just have a major, psychologically based, muli faceted problem. A simple way to describe handling the PTSD, the common result of the storm coming up, is to say that a discharged sniper is better for intervention of an IED caused soldier PTSD, than a VA based psychologist.
Outsiders who operate like Bass did or guys who talk like Wilmott did, won't hack it for this as they didn't hack it with the mainstream.
This is an outside deal where the means will be obtained without the knowledge of those who are controlling (money, power and information).
This is going to be fun.
Thanks for the reply. I have read it numerous times and I'm sure it will make more sense with time.
Quote from jack hershey:
...
Back to the plate. Are you coming off a RTL on a dominant traverse with a dominant tape and is that tape going to have an FTT as the traverse is going to have and FTT as the channel is going to have an FTT? Is that hike on volume coming to the top of a peak. You have 12 seconds to check that PRV and see if it is off peak. Is it? YESSSSS then swing the bat and go have lunch take a walk or call a friend or go shop for groceries we don't even need you to run the bases.
...
Does "12 seconds" refer to MADA cycle time?
Thanks
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from jack hershey:
...
Back to the plate. Are you coming off a RTL on a dominant traverse with a dominant tape and is that tape going to have an FTT as the traverse is going to have and FTT as the channel is going to have an FTT? Is that hike on volume coming to the top of a peak. You have 12 seconds to check that PRV and see if it is off peak. Is it? YESSSSS then swing the bat and go have lunch take a walk or call a friend or go shop for groceries we don't even need you to run the bases.
...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Does "12 seconds" refer to MADA cycle time?
Thanks
When monitoring (M) there is a time in the forming bar when an answer is revealed regarding volume, the leading indicator of price.
To trade well, a portion of the time while the bar is forming, is spent doing some of the Analysis (A) of the MADA routine. For advanced traders, a lot of MADA cycles may be done in the period of one bar.
On the other hand, often there is nothing to do in terms of behavioral action, for several bars. Take the case of the first three levels of trading (B, AB, BI); only 4 to 7 trades are done a day. Usually a "W" or "M" day prevails. Sometimes there is trending all day which reduces trading turns, also.
All MADA routines do have closure at the end by the Action usually it is "Holding" which has no outward behavioral component.
The 12 seconds was determined to be the first time that the PRV "bouncing ball" could be reliable for comparing the end point of volume on the forming bar to the prior bar. The PRV is the measure that allows the hypothesis set to be tested using the parametric measure of the Hypothesis set.
If the volume answer is "increasing", you use the first hypothesis; if the answer is "decreasing" you use the second hypothesis.
As a matter of fact, as the bar forms and you are monitoring three fractal on the chart, the volume answer is helpful in suggesting what additional elements will be making up the data set for using MADA to get to a behavioral decision, were one to be required.
For example, suppose you are a more accomplished trader and are trading traverses or tapes within the channel. Here you could get to doing a trade every two or three bars during the day.
Under these conditions you do not want to give up the bar volatility on a turn so you trade intrabar and at the extreme ends of bars to make the volatility on the end of the segment and the beginning of the next segment. At intermediate level this is 15 popints a day alone (2 ticks minumum taken twice).
One of the many scripts and snippets available for this level of trader is the "pepe" script which places the DOM stalaltites just to the right of the forming bar.
The DOM often does not shown the whole future length of time for the forming bar. It does not need too. What it shows is the extreme value of the turn however. It may be showing right at the start of the bar or not.
At 12 seconds in to the bar you know if the bar is a bar that will or will not contain a turn. In the case where it will then the DOM is handy to have showing because it gives you the correct tick for the turn.
In my last few posts I have expressed that the Holy Grail path has a stopping off point for a person on the path. It is the TRC (time rate of change) stopping off point. The path is long but the TRC glade comes up very soon on the path.
By "reading the DOM you first see the tick value of the turning point and then you watch the TRC of the tick pair leading to the turn (at the Wall on the DOM).
This approaxh to M of MADA makes time just about stand still in terms of having time to reason through your MADA routine.
Here I have spoken about Analysis using information from visual sensing. Your mind's inference brings up the first recourse of your mind to add the 90% to the 10% of sensing. The 100% is called perception.
The data set of elements is filled with about 7 perceptions one with regard to each element. This analysis set has one and only one Decision element associated with it. Likewise the Decision element is in one to one corespondence to the Action element.
So MADA is automatic as a routine where you always know that you know and you know what must come next.
Obviously, the Holy Grail of trading is to hold through each profit segment from one end to the other. Segment happen to overlap so you have plenty of time to carve each turn properly.
One of the nicest aspects of this is to have it work automatically. A lot of the people who trade SCT work in teams by using electronic connections of some sort.
We have set up trading platforms that do a lot of the work automatically by adding scripts to the commercial platforms. This removes the guesswork and establishes a good automatic mind building process.
I have always used the crayola test and drill for allowing a person to see how the market works. By measuring the segments of the crayola zig zags you get to see how each level od trading does its turns, how many there are and how much the market is offering to each level. In terms of ATR, it ranges from 3X to 6x the daily ATR.
Obviously the definition of a full time trader is a humorous answer. No one really has to trade full time to be very wealthy. If you have to trade full time, you do not know how to trade as yet in terms of the Holy Grail path. this paragraph may have a little satire. I need to look up the word. Some of the air heads on ET are using the word.
Good luck.
Quote from jack hershey:
...
Back to the plate. Are you coming off a RTL on a dominant traverse with a dominant tape and is that tape going to have an FTT as the traverse is going to have and FTT as the channel is going to have an FTT? Is that hike on volume coming to the top of a peak. You have 12 seconds to check that PRV and see if it is off peak. Is it? YESSSSS then swing the bat and go have lunch take a walk or call a friend or go shop for groceries we don't even need you to run the bases.
...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Does "12 seconds" refer to MADA cycle time?
Thanks
When monitoring (M) there is a time in the forming bar when an answer is revealed regarding volume, the leading indicator of price.
To trade well, a portion of the time while the bar is forming, is spent doing some of the Analysis (A) of the MADA routine. For advanced traders, a lot of MADA cycles may be done in the period of one bar.
On the other hand, often there is nothing to do in terms of behavioral action, for several bars. Take the case of the first three levels of trading (B, AB, BI); only 4 to 7 trades are done a day. Usually a "W" or "M" day prevails. Sometimes there is trending all day which reduces trading turns, also.
All MADA routines do have closure at the end by the Action usually it is "Holding" which has no outward behavioral component.
The 12 seconds was determined to be the first time that the PRV "bouncing ball" could be reliable for comparing the end point of volume on the forming bar to the prior bar. The PRV is the measure that allows the hypothesis set to be tested using the parametric measure of the Hypothesis set.
If the volume answer is "increasing", you use the first hypothesis; if the answer is "decreasing" you use the second hypothesis.
As a matter of fact, as the bar forms and you are monitoring three fractal on the chart, the volume answer is helpful in suggesting what additional elements will be making up the data set for using MADA to get to a behavioral decision, were one to be required.
For example, suppose you are a more accomplished trader and are trading traverses or tapes within the channel. Here you could get to doing a trade every two or three bars during the day.
Under these conditions you do not want to give up the bar volatility on a turn so you trade intrabar and at the extreme ends of bars to make the volatility on the end of the segment and the beginning of the next segment. At intermediate level this is 15 popints a day alone (2 ticks minumum taken twice).
One of the many scripts and snippets available for this level of trader is the "pepe" script which places the DOM stalaltites just to the right of the forming bar.
The DOM often does not shown the whole future length of time for the forming bar. It does not need too. What it shows is the extreme value of the turn however. It may be showing right at the start of the bar or not.
At 12 seconds in to the bar you know if the bar is a bar that will or will not contain a turn. In the case where it will then the DOM is handy to have showing because it gives you the correct tick for the turn.
In my last few posts I have expressed that the Holy Grail path has a stopping off point for a person on the path. It is the TRC (time rate of change) stopping off point. The path is long but the TRC glade comes up very soon on the path.
By "reading the DOM you first see the tick value of the turning point and then you watch the TRC of the tick pair leading to the turn (at the Wall on the DOM).
This approaxh to M of MADA makes time just about stand still in terms of having time to reason through your MADA routine.
Here I have spoken about Analysis using information from visual sensing. Your mind's inference brings up the first recourse of your mind to add the 90% to the 10% of sensing. The 100% is called perception.
The data set of elements is filled with about 7 perceptions one with regard to each element. This analysis set has one and only one Decision element associated with it. Likewise the Decision element is in one to one corespondence to the Action element.
So MADA is automatic as a routine where you always know that you know and you know what must come next.
Obviously, the Holy Grail of trading is to hold through each profit segment from one end to the other. Segment happen to overlap so you have plenty of time to carve each turn properly.
One of the nicest aspects of this is to have it work automatically. A lot of the people who trade SCT work in teams by using electronic connections of some sort.
We have set up trading platforms that do a lot of the work automatically by adding scripts to the commercial platforms. This removes the guesswork and establishes a good automatic mind building process.
I have always used the crayola test and drill for allowing a person to see how the market works. By measuring the segments of the crayola zig zags you get to see how each level od trading does its turns, how many there are and how much the market is offering to each level. In terms of ATR, it ranges from 3X to 6x the daily ATR.
Obviously the definition of a full time trader is a humorous answer. No one really has to trade full time to be very wealthy. If you have to trade full time, you do not know how to trade as yet in terms of the Holy Grail path. this paragraph may have a little satire. I need to look up the word. Some of the air heads on ET are using the word.
Good luck.
Quote from tradingbug:
Thanks for the reply. I have read it numerous times and I'm sure it will make more sense with time.
YVW. The 11JUN WSJ article mentioning ten items doesn't scratch the surface but it does point out that the order of events is indeterminant.
I really do not want to express my detailed views on this since the situation and its cure are going to be so punishing to most people and they cannot prepare anyway.
Now is a good time to be equipped and to know how to check out whether your trading IB's and brokers are going to give you forewarnings of collapsing and causing you to forfeit your capital.
Making money will have a very high money velocity but keeping it without forfeiture is a major strategic consideration.
Thanks for the explanation.Quote from jack hershey:...
I don't know why I find writing a log so difficult. I find my attention monopolized by the chart, and MADA remains unstructured and ineffective. The log variations I've seen and tried feel awkward and unnatural. What's missing may be just self discipline.