Increases in CO2 - Causes Cooling

Ninety-seven percent of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activities,1and most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position. The following is a partial list of these organizations, along with links to their published statements and a selection of related resources.


AMERICAN SCIENTIFIC SOCIETIES

  • Statement on climate change from 18 scientific associations
    "Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver." (2009)2

  • AAAS-emblem-with-canvas-border.jpg

    American Association for the Advancement of Science
    "The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society." (2006)3

  • ACS-emblem-with-canvass-border.jpg

    American Chemical Society
    "Comprehensive scientific assessments of our current and potential future climates clearly indicate that climate change is real, largely attributable to emissions from human activities, and potentially a very serious problem." (2004)4

  • AGU-emblem-with-canvas-border.jpg

    American Geophysical Union
    "Human‐induced climate change requires urgent action. Humanity is the major influence on the global climate change observed over the past 50 years. Rapid societal responses can significantly lessen negative outcomes." (Adopted 2003, revised and reaffirmed 2007, 2012, 2013)5

  • AMA-emblem-with-canvas-border.jpg

    American Medical Association
    "Our AMA ... supports the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s fourth assessment report and concurs with the scientific consensus that the Earth is undergoing adverse global climate change and that anthropogenic contributions are significant." (2013)6

  • AMS-emblem-with-canvass-border_133x75.jpg

    American Meteorological Society
    "It is clear from extensive scientific evidence that the dominant cause of the rapid change in climate of the past half century is human-induced increases in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2), chlorofluorocarbons, methane, and nitrous oxide." (2012)7

  • APS-emblem-with-canvass-border.jpg

    American Physical Society
    "The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth’s physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now." (2007)8

  • GSA-emblem-with-canvass-border.jpg

    The Geological Society of America
    "The Geological Society of America (GSA) concurs with assessments by the National Academies of Science (2005), the National Research Council (2006), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) that global climate has warmed and that human activities (mainly greenhouse‐gas emissions) account for most of the warming since the middle 1900s." (2006; revised 2010)9


SCIENCE ACADEMIES

  • International academies: Joint statement
    "Climate change is real. There will always be uncertainty in understanding a system as complex as the world’s climate. However there is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring. The evidence comes from direct measurements of rising surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures and from phenomena such as increases in average global sea levels, retreating glaciers, and changes to many physical and biological systems. It is likely that most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities (IPCC 2001)." (2005, 11 international science academies)10

  • USNAS-emblem-with-canvass-border_133x75.jpg

    U.S. National Academy of Sciences
    "The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify taking steps to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere." (2005)11


U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES

  • USGCRP-emblem-with-canvas-border.jpg

    U.S. Global Change Research Program
    "The global warming of the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced increases in heat-trapping gases. Human 'fingerprints' also have been identified in many other aspects of the climate system, including changes in ocean heat content, precipitation, atmospheric moisture, and Arctic sea ice." (2009, 13 U.S. government departments and agencies)12


INTERGOVERNMENTAL BODIES

  • IPCC-emblem-with-canvass-and-border.jpg

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
    “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.”13

    “Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely* due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”14

    *IPCC defines ‘very likely’ as greater than 90 percent probability of occurrence.
 
warming outside of natural varibility.
even the rate of change is withing natural variablity.

Here is an anlaysis of the Moberg data... relied upon in the hockey stick graph.



http://theinconvenientskeptic.com/2011/04/2000-years-of-rate-of-temperature-change/


Even though there is an alignment difference between the instrumental and the reconstruction, the 50 year rates of warming are very well matched. The Moberg peak rate in 19001-1902 of 0.0091 °C/yr is comparable to the instrumental peak rate of 0.0094 °C/yr in 1928. It is also worth noting that the peaks in 1928 and 1985 are also matched in the instrumental record. Neither one of them matches the peak rate of warming in the past 2,000 years.

I also show the same data, but for only the past 1,000 years so the resolution is better.

- See more at: http://theinconvenientskeptic.com/2...e-of-temperature-change/#sthash.9SXnrebr.dpuf











Ten times in the past 1,000 years the rate of warming has been significant for at least a 50 year period.

The most extended period of warming was during the 1700′s when warming happened for almost the entire 100 year period.

Since 1600, the rate of cooling has never been below -0.005 °C/yr. In effect, the strong cooling took place prior to 1600 AD.

The strongest cooling was in 1440 when the 50 yr rate was -0.0141 °C/yr.

So in the past 400 years the rates of cooling been lower than average, but such periods have happened before. The net result is that the modern warm temperatures have been 400 years in the making, not 40 years. Absolutely nothing in the past 100 years is abnormal in the rate of temperature change.

This result shows that the temperature of the Earth is always going through a cycle of warming and cooling. Both the warm periods and the cool periods are constrained and show no signs of being unbounded. The 20 year peak rate of warming in the instrumental period happened in 1994 and the subsequent 6 years showed that the rate of warming has decreased. In a few more years the decreasing rate of warming will be evident in the 50 year data.

There is no evidence in the Moberg reconstruction of the past 2,000 years that the current rate of warming is unusual in any way. The rate of the recent warming is comparable to each of the warming peaks in the past 1,000 years and substantially less than the peak warming over the past 2,000 years.

- See more at: http://theinconvenientskeptic.com/2...e-of-temperature-change/#sthash.wterumqD.dpuf

moberg-2000-rate.png
 
National and international science academies and scientific societies have assessed current scientific opinion on global warming. These assessments are generally consistent with the conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report summarized:

  • Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as evidenced by increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, the widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.[5]
  • Most of the global warming since the mid-20th century is very likely due to human activities.[6]
  • Benefits and costs of climate change for [human] society will vary widely by location and scale.[7] Some of the effects intemperate and polar regions will be positive and others elsewhere will be negative.[7] Overall, net effects are more likely to be strongly negative with larger or more rapid warming.[7]
  • The range of published evidence indicates that the net damage costs of climate change are likely to be significant and to increase over time.[8]
  • The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded this century by an unprecedented combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g.flooding, drought, wildfire, insects, ocean acidification) and other global change drivers (e.g. land-use change, pollution, fragmentation of natural systems, over-exploitation of resources).[9]
No scientific body of national or international standing maintains a formal opinion dissenting from any of these main points. The last national or international scientific body to drop dissent was the American Association of Petroleum Geologists,[10] which in 2007[11] updated its statement to its current non-committal position.[12] Some other organizations, primarily those focusing on geology, also hold non-committal positions.
 
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