Surveying Biscoe's western ridgeline, where gentoo numbers had risen by about a hundred since the last breeding season, Fraser looked like a person watching his block mutate into a slum.
"Man, oh, man, this is absolutely unbelievable," said Fraser, who works out of Palmer Station, a U.S. research base. "This whole area used to be Adélie colonies. Now the gentoos are using the same nesting sites. I think Biscoe will soon be Adélie free. These birds are doomed."
Just behind us, the Marr Ice Piedmont calved with a thunderous rumble, sending a wall of blue ice cascading into the ocean. This continual booming, I was beginning to understand, was the soundtrack accompanying the disappearance of Bill Fraser's Adélies.
"A century ago this was basically a polar environment," he said. "The area embodied Antarctica. Now we have this subantarctic system impinging. I've watched the confrontation over the past 30 years, and the polar system has really disintegrated at Palmer. I'm in awe that it has taken such a short time to happen. Lesson number one for me has been the realization that ecology and ecosystems can change"âhe snapped his fingersâ"like that. In geologic time it's a nanosecond."
The western Antarctic Peninsula has warmed so drastically because of a combination of rising global temperatures and regional shifts in ocean and air currents. Worldwide, temperatures have warmed far more slowlyâan average of one degree Fahrenheit (0.56 degrees Celsius) over the past centuryâyet even that relatively small change is rippling through the natural world. Fraser's painstaking studies on the Antarctic Peninsula provide clues to how rising temperatures can profoundly affect ecosystems all over the planet, where animals, plants, and insects are already adapting to moderate climate change by shifting their ranges, advancing migration dates, and altering times of mating and flowering.
http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/eco-signs/