Increases in CO2 - Causes Cooling

you have never once shown us with anything other than a false perspective chart that temps lead co2.
no scientist makes your claim...

and I have never ever seen a published paper or any scientist make that claim.
the very best nutter argument is that speculation that first temps go up and then co2 amplifies... the warming trend... but that is unproven speculation.

The reality is far more likely to be... as we come out of the ice age the sun warms... the ocean tides change... the ocean warms and the released co2... then after we get a ton of warming and then a ton of co2... we have so much co2 and water vapor... it cuts off some of the sun and we start to cool.


futurecurrents said:
Jem, how many times do we have go over this? CO2 lead temps AND temps lead CO2 . Your stubborn stupidity has now reached absurd levels. You're attempting to lecture us and you don't understand the most basic science involved.

You lying sack of shit.
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these graphs are made with nutter approved data.
co2 trails change in ocean temps.

I will make your best argument for you...
You could argue that is one cycle in the data... but there must be others....
Unfortunately... even with the billions and billions that go into nutter research every year... no one has found another cycle and lead lag relationships showing change in co2 leads temps....
If they did... you would be producing that paper cause those guys would have nobel prizes.
The closet you have gotten is a paper which speculated that once antartica warmed then co2 amplified the warming effect.


jem said:
Science shows CO2 lags change in ocean temps.. see the peer reviewed paper below.

"The maximum positive correlation between CO2 and temperature is found for CO2 lagging 11–12 months in relation to global sea surface temperature, 9.5-10 months to global surface air temperature, and about 9 months to global lower troposphere temperature. The correlation between changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric CO2 is high, but do not explain all observed changes."

See: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.08.008

1-s2.0-S0921818112001658-gr5.jpg
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jem said:
you have never once shown us with anything other than a false perspective chart that temps lead co2.
no scientist makes your claim...

and I have never ever seen a published paper or any scientist make that claim.
the very best nutter argument is that speculation that first temps go up and then co2 amplifies... the warming trend... but that is unproven speculation.

The reality is far more likely to be... as we come out of the ice age the sun warms... the ocean tides change... the ocean warms and the released co2... then after we get a ton of warming and then a ton of co2... we have so much co2 and water vapor... it cuts off some of the sun and we start to cool.
More...

Who cares what you think? You are a lying sack of shit.
 
An enhanced greenhouse effect from CO2 has been confirmed by multiple lines of empirical evidence. Satellite measurements of infrared spectra over the past 40 years observe less energy escaping to space at the wavelengths associated with CO2. Surface measurements find more downward infrared radiation warming the planet's surface. This provides a direct, empirical causal link between CO2 and global warming.
 
In 1970, NASA launched the IRIS satellite that measured infrared spectra between 400 cm-1 to 1600 cm-1. In 1996, the Japanese Space Agency launched the IMG satellite which recorded similar observations. Both sets of data were compared to discern any changes in outgoing radiation over the 26 year period (Harries 2001). The resultant change in outgoing radiation was as follows:


Figure 1: Change in spectrum from 1970 to 1996 due to trace gases. 'Brightness temperature' indicates equivalent blackbody temperature (Harries 2001).

What they found was a drop in outgoing radiation at the wavelength bands that greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) absorb energy. The change in outgoing radiation is consistent with theoretical expectations. Thus the paper found "direct experimental evidence for a significant increase in the Earth's greenhouse effect".

This result has been confirmed by subsequent papers using more recent satellite data. The 1970 and 1997 spectra were compared with additional satellite data from the NASA AIRS satellite launched in 2003 (Griggs 2004). This analysis was extended to 2006 using data from the AURA satellite launched in 2004 (Chen 2007). Both papers found the observed differences in CO2 bands matching the expected changes from rising carbon dioxide levels. Thus we have empirical evidence that increased CO2 is causing an enhanced greenhouse effect.
 
Surface measurements of downward longwave radiation
A compilation of surface measurements of downward longwave radiation from 1973 to 2008 find an increasing trend of more longwave radiation returning to earth, attributed to increases in air temperature, humidity and atmospheric carbon dioxide (Wang 2009). More regional studies such as an examination of downward longwave radiation over the central Alps find that downward longwave radiation is increasing due to an enhanced greenhouse effect (Philipona 2004).

Taking this a step further, an analysis of high resolution spectral data allows scientists to quantitatively attribute the increase in downward radiation to each of several greenhouse gases (Evans 2006). The results lead the authors to conclude that "this experimental data should effectively end the argument by skeptics that no experimental evidence exists for the connection between greenhouse gas increases in the atmosphere and global warming."
 
Conservation of Energy
Huber and Knutti (2011) published a paper in Nature Geoscience, Anthropogenic and natural warming inferred from changes in Earth’s energy balance. They take an approach in this study which utilizes the principle of conservation of energy for the global energy budget using the measurements discussed above, and summarize their methodology:

"We use a massive ensemble of the Bern2.5D climate model of intermediate complexity, driven by bottom-up estimates of historic radiative forcing F, and constrained by a set of observations of the surface warming T since 1850 and heat uptake Q since the 1950s....Between 1850 and 2010, the climate system accumulated a total net forcing energy of 140 x 1022 J with a 5-95% uncertainty range of 95-197 x 1022 J, corresponding to an average net radiative forcing of roughly 0.54 (0.36-0.76)Wm-2."

Essentially, Huber and Knutti take the estimated global heat content increase since 1850, calculate how much of the increase is due to various estimated radiative forcings, and partition the increase between increasing ocean heat content and outgoing longwave radiation. The authors note that more than 85% of the global heat uptake (Q) has gone into the oceans, including increasing the heat content of the deeper oceans, although their model only accounts for the upper 700 meters.
 
Conclusion
There are multiple lines of empirical evidence that increasing carbon dioxide causes an enhanced greenhouse effect. Laboratory tests show carbon dioxide absorbs longwave radiation. Satellite measurements confirm less longwave radiation is escaping to space at carbon dioxide absorptive wavelengths. Surface measurements find more longwave radiation returning back to Earth at these same wavelengths. The result of this energy imbalance is the accumulation of heat over the last 40 years.
 
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