el nino brings warmer temps. it well study.
many papers have been written about the sun and the tides being responsible for some or all of the warming.
we have been cooling since the turn of the century.
we hope we have a strong el nino to break the drought here in the western U.S.
if you have been paying attention -- el nino's frequently bring storms and a lot of snow.
so far this year... the el nino had been forming... but there is a concern it is fizzling out.
----
http://www.mercurynews.com/science/ci_26292169/california-drought-strong-el-nino-which-could-bring
A powerful El Niño that had been emerging in the Pacific Ocean is fizzling out, evaporating hopes it will deliver a knockout punch to California's three-year drought.
A new report from scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration decreases the probability of an El Niño -- the condition that occurs when warm Pacific Ocean water at the equator affects the jet stream -- to 65 percent starting in October, down from 82 percent in June.
More significantly, researchers said, the ocean water that had been warming steadily through the spring has cooled off in recent months. Most of the world's leading meteorological organizations now say that if an El Niño arrives this winter, it is likely to be a weak or moderate one -- not the kind historically linked with wetter-than-normal winters in California.
"It's fair to say that it's plateaued," said Michelle L'Heureux, a meteorologist with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland.
Other researchers are more blunt.
"We're back to square one. It's finished. I don't think we even have an El Niño any more," said Bill Patzert, a research scientist and oceanographer at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.
"If I were a betting man, I'd say it's 75 percent that we'll have another dry winter," he said. "The unfortunate fact is that it looks like the last three years all over again."
... more
many papers have been written about the sun and the tides being responsible for some or all of the warming.
we have been cooling since the turn of the century.
we hope we have a strong el nino to break the drought here in the western U.S.
if you have been paying attention -- el nino's frequently bring storms and a lot of snow.
so far this year... the el nino had been forming... but there is a concern it is fizzling out.
----
http://www.mercurynews.com/science/ci_26292169/california-drought-strong-el-nino-which-could-bring
A powerful El Niño that had been emerging in the Pacific Ocean is fizzling out, evaporating hopes it will deliver a knockout punch to California's three-year drought.
A new report from scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration decreases the probability of an El Niño -- the condition that occurs when warm Pacific Ocean water at the equator affects the jet stream -- to 65 percent starting in October, down from 82 percent in June.
More significantly, researchers said, the ocean water that had been warming steadily through the spring has cooled off in recent months. Most of the world's leading meteorological organizations now say that if an El Niño arrives this winter, it is likely to be a weak or moderate one -- not the kind historically linked with wetter-than-normal winters in California.
"It's fair to say that it's plateaued," said Michelle L'Heureux, a meteorologist with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland.
Other researchers are more blunt.
"We're back to square one. It's finished. I don't think we even have an El Niño any more," said Bill Patzert, a research scientist and oceanographer at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.
"If I were a betting man, I'd say it's 75 percent that we'll have another dry winter," he said. "The unfortunate fact is that it looks like the last three years all over again."
... more
