IncreaseNow's "Sell/Short" Futures Journal

Quote from Fireplace:

I'm just concerned that you are going to agitate the moderators again and they will move your thread to chit-chat, so I was trying to keep you on the right track!



:)
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thanks...actually...you are RIGHT...I need to TRADE more!!!!...much more...starting this coming Monday!!!...thanks!...:p
 
YVW. I can tell you are the kind of guy who gets sidetracked easily and so I was just trying to help you stay the course.

Monday more live trades and less questions!

Quote from increasenow:

thanks...actually...you are RIGHT...I need to TRADE more!!!!...much more...starting this coming Monday!!!...thanks!...:p
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:)
 
Quote from increasenow:

attached is my trade today...ok, help me...what did I miss that showed that GOLD would soar when I went short?...I guess I did do right in getting out...quick...PS-the p&l is off due to commission re-adjustment by $4 or so...
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you ask why?

i ask you to tell me why

i see a ton of points avail in gold today

draw some horizontal lines on your chart and tell me why

i will say this

i would be caught dead before i went short where you went short
 
Quote from increasenow:

attached is my trade today...ok, help me...what did I miss that showed that GOLD would soar when I went short?...I guess I did do right in getting out...quick...PS-the p&l is off due to commission re-adjustment by $4 or so...
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Maybe show your EOD trading page, outlining each entry/exit. It will induce a lot more constructive advice than showing us a chart of GC.
 
Quote from stock piker:

Maybe show your EOD trading page, outlining each entry/exit. It will induce a lot more constructive advice than showing us a chart of GC.
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the two dots on the chart ARE my trades (1 trade) for the day...red when I went 'short' and blue when i 'bought' to exit...
 
Yo Increase, you got a lot of traders willing to help you out -- a rarity on ET. I would print out and re-read what they offering to you.

Since you are only using 5 min bars with no indicators, you may benefit from the Al Brooks book if you don't already own it (only recommended in small doses though).

One more bit of advice, the first pullback of a newly forming trend is a great set-up. If you had a 1 or 3 min chart alongside your 5 min chart, you may have seen price pull back to a 10-MA and hold before continuing somewhere between that first big red bar and where you entered -- would probably have been a safer trade. You would probably have seen a similar pullback (or two) on the big uptrend as well.
 
Quote from increasenow:

attached is my trade today...ok, help me...what did I miss that showed that GOLD would soar when I went short?...I guess I did do right in getting out...quick...PS-the p&l is off due to commission re-adjustment by $4 or so...
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You shorted near a support level in what appears to be a range (can't see what's west of your leftmost bar). Think about what potential buyers and sellers and holders of long and short positions are thinking.

Longs are thinking, "If support doesn't hold up, I'm outta here."

Shorts are thinking, "If support holds up I'm outta here."

So why would you short just ABOVE a support level? It's a low probability trade. Too many traders are watching or have stops around that level and you want to wait for the reaction to support before choosing sides.

Shorting a breakdown of support makes sense.

Shorting a rally to a lower high after a breakdown of support makes sense.

Shorting that barb wire (yes, definitely read Al Brooks) just under the 1113.00 level that has failed 8 bars in a row to break through the previous high really makes sense, because you can place a very tight stop (just above 1113.00), and the chance of price moving down to test support is quite good, because if the market tries to do something twice and then fails on the 3rd try, it will tend to do the opposite and retests of previous support and resistance levels are very common.
 
Quote from increasenow:

thanks a lot...my thinking was that the 1108 level (prev close and open) was going to break again for quick move south lower than 1108...
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Dont enter a trade because you "think" something might happen a certain level, that is basically guessing and hoping, hope and money do not mix. Wait and see if your assumptions were correct or not. Im curious what your stop was on that trade.

Quote from NoDoji:

You shorted near a support level in what appears to be a range (can't see what's west of your leftmost bar). Think about what potential buyers and sellers and holders of long and short positions are thinking.

Longs are thinking, "If support doesn't hold up, I'm outta here."

Shorts are thinking, "If support holds up I'm outta here."

So why would you short just ABOVE a support level? It's a low probability trade. Too many traders are watching or have stops around that level and you want to wait for the reaction to support before choosing sides.

Shorting a breakdown of support makes sense.

Shorting a rally to a lower high after a breakdown of support makes sense.

Shorting that barb wire (yes, definitely read Al Brooks) just under the 1113.00 level that has failed 8 bars in a row to break through the previous high really makes sense, because you can place a very tight stop (just above 1113.00), and the chance of price moving down to test support is quite good, because if the market tries to do something twice and then fails on the 3rd try, it will tend to do the opposite and retests of previous support and resistance levels are very common.
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Read this. Then read it again.
 
IncNow, I attached your chart with my annotations. Learn to use the power of lower highs (LH) and higher lows (HL), double bottoms and double tops, in your trading. It's low risk:high reward "with-trend" and "confirmed counter-trend" trading. Instead of trading based on your opinion of what you think price should do, this method of trading lets you easily join what the buyers and sellers are actually doing.
 

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