stat pa curve
IN THIS THREAD: IronFist learns (the elusive) PRICE ACTION
- Thread starter IronFist
- Start date
im pretty sure it is hes got a huge Thread that im not gonna read to find it but i really wouldnt reco this.
I look forward to hearing it
I decided to try "pyramiding up" my positions since ET seems to think it's the holy grail. I did some calculations and, if you actually catch a trendy, it will make substantial amounts of money (it also seems like in choppy markets you will lose more than usual).
My first trade I entered in a downtrend and ended up shorting at the bottom. lol. I re-entered close to the next swing low, and was stopped out when a new swing high was made. P/L looks like this:
Short 1 YM @ 8024
Short 1 YM @ 8054
Cover 2 YM @ 8084
------------------------
-$450 (including comission)
Ok so I know that entering "in the middle of a down trend" is probably stupid based on PA, but half the time it works out. Anyway, on to the next trade:
I shorted when it looked like a new swing downward was beginning. Price went down a bit and then retraced giving me drawdown, but it didn't retrace to above the prior swing high, which means it made a LH, which means I didn't get stopped out, and I entered another YM short when it looked like the downtrend was resuming (see chart). Those trades look like this:
Short 1 YM @ 8010
Short 1 YM @ 7997
Then the down trend continued until at one point I was +$800 on that position. Rather than be a chicken and sell, I decided that I would hold onto this position until the previous swing high was broken. After all, it could continue to make LLs and LHs, which I would continue to pyramid into.
So what happened?
Well my average short sell cost was 8003.5 (so we'll say 8003).
I saw a new LH at 7956 that I didn't see when it was forming (it was subtle compared with the last swing highs). So I set a cover order at 7960, just above that one, to sell 1 YM in case that price was hit. Sure enough it was.
Then price continued to go up, making a distinct HH, so I figured the down trend was over and I covered my other YM contract.
In hindsight, I shouldn't have covered, because the down trend continued, but a HH had been made, so at the time I think it was reasonable to assume that the downtrend was over.
Cover 1 YM @ 7960
Cover 1 YM @ 7974
--------------------------
+$360 (after commissions)
Total for day:
-$450
+$360
----------
-$90.00
My first trade I entered in a downtrend and ended up shorting at the bottom. lol. I re-entered close to the next swing low, and was stopped out when a new swing high was made. P/L looks like this:
Short 1 YM @ 8024
Short 1 YM @ 8054
Cover 2 YM @ 8084
------------------------
-$450 (including comission)
Ok so I know that entering "in the middle of a down trend" is probably stupid based on PA, but half the time it works out. Anyway, on to the next trade:
I shorted when it looked like a new swing downward was beginning. Price went down a bit and then retraced giving me drawdown, but it didn't retrace to above the prior swing high, which means it made a LH, which means I didn't get stopped out, and I entered another YM short when it looked like the downtrend was resuming (see chart). Those trades look like this:
Short 1 YM @ 8010
Short 1 YM @ 7997
Then the down trend continued until at one point I was +$800 on that position. Rather than be a chicken and sell, I decided that I would hold onto this position until the previous swing high was broken. After all, it could continue to make LLs and LHs, which I would continue to pyramid into.
So what happened?
Well my average short sell cost was 8003.5 (so we'll say 8003).
I saw a new LH at 7956 that I didn't see when it was forming (it was subtle compared with the last swing highs). So I set a cover order at 7960, just above that one, to sell 1 YM in case that price was hit. Sure enough it was.
Then price continued to go up, making a distinct HH, so I figured the down trend was over and I covered my other YM contract.
In hindsight, I shouldn't have covered, because the down trend continued, but a HH had been made, so at the time I think it was reasonable to assume that the downtrend was over.
Cover 1 YM @ 7960
Cover 1 YM @ 7974
--------------------------
+$360 (after commissions)
Total for day:
-$450
+$360
----------
-$90.00
Iron Fist
Looks as if youâre starting to trade like a trader - Congratulations
I know youâve been working hard on the HH / LL / HL/ LH thing so Iâll stay away from that out of respect to you,
but Food for Thought
Always trade what you see⦠Not so much what youâve seen
And the buying the top / selling the bottom thing â weâve all done it at least once / twice.. mmm maybe a bunch of times â after all you donât know itâs the top / bottom till after the fact
So maintain good money management discipline
Redneck
Looks as if youâre starting to trade like a trader - Congratulations
I know youâve been working hard on the HH / LL / HL/ LH thing so Iâll stay away from that out of respect to you,
but Food for Thought
Always trade what you see⦠Not so much what youâve seen
And the buying the top / selling the bottom thing â weâve all done it at least once / twice.. mmm maybe a bunch of times â after all you donât know itâs the top / bottom till after the fact
So maintain good money management discipline
Redneck
Down $280 after commission this morning on two trades.
Both times the same thing happened:
HHs and HLs, uptrend. Buy after an HL and upswing is resuming.
Both times, as soon as I bought, price immediately reversed making a LH and then went down to stop me out with a LL.
What is going on today that the HHs, HL, LH, and LLs are all out of wack????
Is something odd going on or was my analysis wrong?
Both times the same thing happened:
HHs and HLs, uptrend. Buy after an HL and upswing is resuming.
Both times, as soon as I bought, price immediately reversed making a LH and then went down to stop me out with a LL.
What is going on today that the HHs, HL, LH, and LLs are all out of wack????
Is something odd going on or was my analysis wrong?
You had good entries, dont worry about the fact that you lost..it happens. Also the ym was in somewhat of a range, so choppy movement could be expected.