IN THIS THREAD: IronFist learns (the elusive) PRICE ACTION
- Thread starter IronFist
- Start date
HI IF,
You tried to trade the 1st one and lost money.
What was your entry technique?
What was your profit target?
I put 2 white arrows on your chart where prices bounced off Support.
Both of those moves (32 and 33 ticks) were tradable if you were looking for a scalp and had a good entry technique.
For example, using an 8 Range chart (each bar is 8 ticks=$40/cnt) for entry would have been profitable with entry 1 tick above the high of the low bar.
I chose 8R because I like close stops ($50-$100 per cnt normally), ym is not too volatile and it is lunch time so $50 (entry 1 tick above the low bar, stop 1 tic below) stop.
Profit target goal = 1/2 the H-L range of the last 5 bars (I don't have Range bars setup up for that market so you will have to do the PT calculation yourself but 8R bars should have a 5 bar range of <40 ticks so profit target is less than 20 ticks). And keep an eye on previous S/R if they are closer than calculated target, use them.
1st trade low was 8540, entry 8549, mfe was 23 ticks (72-49). Made 1st profit target.
2nd trade low was 8510, entry 8519, mfe was 24 ticks (43-19). Made 1st profit target.
2 profitable scalps.
Good questions, nobody knows the answer. What you are looking for is what the market tends to do. Probabilities. Good entry techniques. Good trade management. Good money management.
Forget about trying to predict what the market will do. Trade the probabilities.
I would be looking for prices to retest the hi. How the hi is retested will determine if prices will go up or down.
For example, if there is a weak rally (less than 50% back up) and a then a new low, the trend has shifted to down.
Bill
You tried to trade the 1st one and lost money.
What was your entry technique?
What was your profit target?
I put 2 white arrows on your chart where prices bounced off Support.
Both of those moves (32 and 33 ticks) were tradable if you were looking for a scalp and had a good entry technique.
For example, using an 8 Range chart (each bar is 8 ticks=$40/cnt) for entry would have been profitable with entry 1 tick above the high of the low bar.
I chose 8R because I like close stops ($50-$100 per cnt normally), ym is not too volatile and it is lunch time so $50 (entry 1 tick above the low bar, stop 1 tic below) stop.
Profit target goal = 1/2 the H-L range of the last 5 bars (I don't have Range bars setup up for that market so you will have to do the PT calculation yourself but 8R bars should have a 5 bar range of <40 ticks so profit target is less than 20 ticks). And keep an eye on previous S/R if they are closer than calculated target, use them.
1st trade low was 8540, entry 8549, mfe was 23 ticks (72-49). Made 1st profit target.
2nd trade low was 8510, entry 8519, mfe was 24 ticks (43-19). Made 1st profit target.
2 profitable scalps.
Good questions, nobody knows the answer. What you are looking for is what the market tends to do. Probabilities. Good entry techniques. Good trade management. Good money management.
Forget about trying to predict what the market will do. Trade the probabilities.
I would be looking for prices to retest the hi. How the hi is retested will determine if prices will go up or down.
For example, if there is a weak rally (less than 50% back up) and a then a new low, the trend has shifted to down.
Bill
Notice the velocity of the pop up from the last LL on your chart @446. Sure we made a LL but that violent popup from support is a clue to consider. Not that it gives you an answer but it might make you more cautious. Also we didn't make a LL by many ticks so that is also suspect.
Also, setting large stops out of frustration is not very helpful. R:R is all you got that will keep you alive.
Relax man, have fun
Also, setting large stops out of frustration is not very helpful. R:R is all you got that will keep you alive.
Relax man, have fun
Enter on green bar after pullback.
I do not yet know how to estimate profit targets using "price action." My target would have been when price started to reverse (I figure that could be a reversal = end of trend = no more money to be made). This is something I miss from indicator-based trading. With indicators, there are specific exit points that offer no room for interpretation. So I could give you a specific answer if I was using indicators.
I am hoping to learn how to establish profit targets using "price action."
I *LOVE* range charts (in theory) because they eliminate tall bars. Tall bars ruin everything.
However, their downside is that, when tall bars would be appearing on a regular chart, on Range Charts the bars are appearing instantaneously. Like 3 or 4 bars appear at once, which is untradeable.
So while you gain the advantage of not having any more tall bars and having trends be super blatantly obvious, you also gain the disadvantage of having multiple bars appear at once during fast action.
Is it possible to use normal PA rules (whatever they end up being) with range bars?
I have played around a lot with 15 Constant Range Bars on the YM. Values less than that appear too quickly. Is this something I should explore more or am I wasting my time with Range Bars?