Quote from ggoyal:
couple of things:
1. during a pullback or popup, you will know it's over when you strength/weakness. eg. during a popup(chart u posted) when you see a red bar CLOSE below the previous bar low, thats 1 sign of weakness and time to enter with stop placed 1 tick above the popup high. This results in small stops and potentially nice winners.
2. draw trendlines only for significant waves and pullbacks. This will:
a. keep you out of chop. I will post a chart today. Believe me, when you draw these lines and stay out of chop, you have covered half of trading mysteries because now you will not be losing money from useless trades to begin with.
b. Say in an uptrend market you see a LH. Connect the HH and LH, that I promise more times than often will be a significant trendline and short only when that line is touched. same goes for uptrend, just opposite.
c. drawing trendlines and seeing it get respected for the 3rd time(the time you should be taking a trade) just gives you a confirmation that the trend is still valid. Like I said, in a downtrend, wait till you weakness when the trendline is touched for the third time and place stop above the high.
Look at the waves, forget everything else. See how once price trends after a pullback or popup.
Use volume charts. I use 3000.
I only take trades when the trendline is touched the 3rd time and more. If it gets pierced and then gets respected 30 minutes later, I dont pay attention to it. You drew way too many trendlines in that RT chart.
You should end up with somewhere between 5-maybe 12 lines and same for the trades, 5-15. Using this method I have never taken more than 18 trades on a given day.
Let me know if you would like a better explanation, i would be glad to. This is a very simple method and remember, it will cause you to miss trades because the trendlines are not always touched. NO matter juicy it looks, i dont take it because I am only interested in high probability trades than making that 10 pointer in 1 minute.
This requires a lot of patience because sometimes you could go half day without any trades, but you need to have confidence. Its easy to lose confidence and say trendlines dont work.
Just try it for a week, you will either break even or make money because IT WILL keep you out of chop. if you cant get it, ask me, i will show you.
Again, this is a probability game, so you haveto take every signal(trendline touch) you get. you will win.
You also have to let the winner run, but obviously depending upon price action. Stops are usually 1-3 points. Larger than 3 i tend to shy away. infact, i dont take trades that require stops larger than 3 points.
You have to have patience. very important. just stay calm.