IN THIS THREAD: IronFist learns (the elusive) PRICE ACTION

[nukethewhales31]

if your chasing price your gonna fail
all currencies all equities nothing can be traded the same they all have personalities. different probabilities .. stick to one venue and learn its personalities learn its probabilities... you maybe youd notice some trends 1 through history and 2 within so many bars...

why can people who trade the moon and stars locations lol be profitable? think of that how does the movement of the stars correlate with FX? it sounds like a odd question but if you think about it and figure it out then youll see this like no other person.. and sir what your doing is not price action.

notice in my chart how many bars are green under the ema 20 --- first of all why would i use a ema 20? do people really know how periods correlate? so how does my 20 correlate well with this PA?

2nd why am i worried about how many bars is under it as what colors? and why should you be worried about it?

3rd why unlike most traders looking to get in on that setup am i not getting burned or losing?

while i was posting look at an update now price is moving in my direction it had to make a substancial move to change direction back to the bias then make several new lows closing the distance on my trigger.

 

[nukethewhales31]

Quote from c.chugani:

I might be interpreting your post and chart incorrrectly but from what I can gather, your profit target is less than your stop loss? Is this because you scale out of your trades (and let some of the position continue running past your initial profit target?)

If not, how do you overcome the negative expectancy of such a strategy? Do you have a very high hit (success) rate with your trades?

Thanks for elaborating.

By the way: I'm glad i'm not the only one who charts and trades with such a simple set up. Like they say - the path to perfection is elimination; leaving just the bare essential.

my targets have low tp high stops to allow for certain things volatility, stop hunting, etc but yeah youve noticed that my tp is closer than my SL people often think that risk:reward must be higher than 1 or 2 but this is because they lose 40% of the time with indicators and what not... i let the market filter out the bad trades in the way i let the market approach me... the market comes to me to trade i am the markets casino... the market comes to me to play i show it what it can play and what it cant i am the house i win in the end.

i can inversely use TP/SL because the market filters out the bad moves for me because i let price come to me i dont come to price. i know my prob of the market showing the next candle in a direction and if it does move they way i expect it to to some % prob. that im ready for it if it moves with 10% chance the opposing direction guess what my limit wasnt hit and i never was even in the trade.

look now at the chart what so complicated
it gets to the point where im actually deeply concerned for the person on the other end... they are wasting all this time to play when they could just send me a check every month and go spend more time with their children.

 

[nukethewhales31]

before i head off to work at the casino none the less the one @ penn national race course in grantville pa...

i leave you with this one tidbit pa maybe a simple as counting bars... this is one way i make money.. look at the chart i post three greens in a row when bias is down means? ... reversals

so stop stressing ask yourself w.w.ntw31.d i would remain calm dont get stressed go do something you love before you trade and after you want to let go of things that cause stress...i have a job im not worried about making money i like the casino... think about things you would like to research as the day goes on and write them down... develop some stats for the bars the movements and the length of trends and also the prob of success and whatnot FOR the venue your working with...

3 greens under ema 20 call for ? reversal look at the chart.

 

[nukethewhales31]

whatelse do you notice about those candles that occur 95% of the time you tell me and your on your way.

 

[IronFist]

Quote from nukethewhales31:

this is all thats ever on my charts why do you guys make it seem so hard

notice how the only lines i mark is my entrance exit and tp entrance short mid line exit(tp) bottom line SL top line.

trade with bias and let price come to you.

From that chart it looks like all you would have to do is trade in the direction of your MA

(works great until price chops around the MA)

 

[IronFist]

Quote from nukethewhales31:

w.w.ntw31.d

I laughed out loud at that

 

[IronFist]

ok guy's I'll post my chart for today (most likely a loser) along with comments and stuff in a bit.

 

[IronFist]

established up trend HH, HL, HH, HL, HH

Went long when green bar passed previous swing high.

Target was pivot point since price was close and I haven't learned anything about picking targets with Price Action. Seemed like a good point. In the past, I've usually been successful using pivot points as targets when price approaches.

 

[IronFist]

Ok I'm gonna try to type up a bunch of rules or things based on comments people have left. There's a ton of info in this thread and I need to get it all organized somehow. I'll post it in this thread for comments later.

 

[Trader273]

Quote from IronFist:

Ok I'm gonna try to type up a bunch of rules or things based on comments people have left. There's a ton of info in this thread and I need to get it all organized somehow. I'll post it in this thread for comments later.

I think first and foremost you need to figure out if you want to be a trend follower or couter-trend. Until you do that, you will be jumping from one thing to another. I know people say that counter-trend is very hard to be profitable, but so is trend following. Master one method, then maybe move on. You need to find something with concrete rules. Here's your 500 tick ym using trader vic's 2b rules. Very simplistic, yet effective.