In the Coronavirus Fight in Scandinavia, Sweden Stands Apart

In the United States...dozens of research labs / universities that deals specifically with statistical models involving immunology, virology, epidemiology and Pandemics have calculated at the beginning of the 2020 Pandemic and prior...

Statistically, natural herd immunity in the United States will result in catastrophic failure...millions dead.

It's the reason why they went with the other alternative...vaccinated herd immunity.

Sweden was aware of those statistical model and still made the poor decision to try such, later seeing the bad results...they then deny it was a goal...later the health officials stated it failed and now again denying the natural herd immunity was their initial objective. :rolleyes:

Regardless to their real goal...natural herd immunity does not work in today's population with countries interwoven together. In comparison, to the way things were before the ability to travel from country to country in a small amount of time especially with many countries consisting of multiple families in a single household in comparison to +50 years ago.

Simply, this is not the 1800s nor before that time...experimenting with the lives of millions with natural herd immunity is criminal in my opinion. In some ways, today it would be viewed as an extermination or even genocide.

On another note, as shown in graphs posted much earlier in this thread and other Covid-19 threads...

ICU's in South Dakota, Chicago and Québec have more and more Covid-19 patients here in the 2nd wave in comparison to the 1st wave. The medium age I had posted about for ICUs was 37.6 age.

It was something very similar I posted about Sweden too.

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Median age plummets

In a separate study, researchers with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) COVID-19 Response Team found that the median age of COVID-19 cases dropped from 46 years in May to a low of 37 years in July. In addition, the highest incidence for the disease was for adults ages 20 to 29, who accounted for more than 20% of confirmed COVID-19 cases from June through August.

The study, “Changing Age Distribution of the COVID-19 Pandemic—United States, May–August 2020,” published in the CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, noted the rapidly rising incidence of COVID-19 among young adults, the lowering of the national median age for COVID-19 infection, and that—over the summer, in Southern states—a rising percentage of positive test rates in young adults was typically followed by a rising percentage among older age groups.

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Simply, either the old folks are getting better at protecting themselves or the younger folks are becoming less protected. Regardless, the medium age is dropping for Covid-19 ICU patients, hospitalization and infections.

The same in other countries too like France...a place I am a citizen...

https://www.thelocal.fr/20200924/an...sly-ill-covid-19-patients-are-getting-younger

Another country has the same issue...medium age for seriously ill Covid-19 patients is declining...Canada...

covid-cases-ages-racing-bar-chart-animated-gif.gif


Here in Québec at the Hospital ICU my girlfriend works as a nurse...the last 10 ICU patients...nobody was older than 55 age and three of them were between 20 - 35 years old.

wrbtrader
 
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WRB...

do you see your chart for covid 19 deaths...
do you see the zero and then the spike, zero and then the spike.

That means you are getting multiple days batched together.
Do you understand that?

Therefore that is not deaths in a single day.
That is deaths over multiple days.
Do you understand that?

GWB can't understand that.
 
I wonder... how many of the 6% who died without co morbidities being mentioned were also quite old or had other non qualifying/ or not mentioned health issues.


Comorbidities
Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.9 additional conditions or causes per death. The number of mentions for each condition or cause is shown for all deaths and by age groups.

Starting December 23, 2020, the data file will also include the number of deaths that mention the listed conditions. The new column, “COVID-19 Deaths” represents the number of deaths that mention one or more of the conditions indicated. The data file’s existing “Number of Mentions” column represents the number of total conditions mentioned for each age group.


https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
 
Over 70 million adults in U.S. are obese (35 million men and 35 million women). 99 million are overweight (45 million women and 54 million men). NHANES 2016 statistics showed that about 39.6% of American adults were obese. Men had an age-adjusted rate of 37.9% and Women had an age-adjusted rate of 41.1%.

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Now guess how many of the above are not elderly ??? :D

Millions.

Now imagine if those millions had been experimented upon with natural herd immunity via Covid-19 infection that was secretly discussed between Trump's advisors via email...started by a heart surgeon named Atlas.
  • No statistical models supporting natural herd immunity on millions of citizens.
This is my reason why I refer to natural herd immunity as criminal and possibly genocide when used as an experiment by the wrong people that does not follow the science about its citizens that are in the high risk group.

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...Estimates of the threshold for SARS-CoV-2 range from 10% to 70% or even more5,6. But models that calculate numbers at the lower end of that range rely on assumptions about how people interact in social networks that might not hold true, Scarpino says. Low-end estimates imagine that people with many contacts will get infected first, and that because they have a large number of contacts, they will spread the virus to more people.

As these ‘superspreaders’ gain immunity to the virus, the transmission chains among those who are still susceptible are greatly reduced. And “as a result of that, you very quickly get to the herd-immunity threshold”, Scarpino says. But if it turns out that anybody could become a superspreader, then “those assumptions that people are relying on to get the estimates down to around 20% or 30% are just not accurate”, Scarpino explains. The result is that the herd-immunity threshold will be closer to 60–70%, which is what most models show (see, for example, ref. 6).

Looking at known superspreader events in prisons and on cruise ships, it seems clear that COVID-19 spreads widely initially, before slowing down in a captive, unvaccinated population, Andersen says. At San Quentin State Prison in California, more than 60% of the population was ultimately infected before the outbreak was halted, so it wasn’t as if it magically stopped after 30% of people got the virus, Andersen says. “There’s no mysterious dark matter that protects people,” he says.

And although scientists can estimate herd-immunity thresholds, they won’t know the actual numbers in real time, says Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in Baltimore. Instead, herd immunity is something that can be observed with certainty only by analysing the data in retrospect, maybe as long as ten years afterwards, she says...
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wrbtrader
 
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Obese people are in the high risk group.
I agree they should not be experimented upon with bad messaging regarding mask wearing.

They should be isolating.

From very early spring... I have said the high risk should be locking down...
I see them walking around with masks on thinking they are protected.


====

you said...

Over 70 million adults in U.S. are obese (35 million men and 35 million women). 99 million are overweight (45 million women and 54 million men). NHANES 2016 statistics showed that about 39.6% of American adults were obese. Men had an age-adjusted rate of 37.9% and Women had an age-adjusted rate of 41.1%.

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Now guess how many of the above are not elderly ??? :D

Millions.

Now imagine if those millions had been experimented upon with natural herd immunity via Covid-19 infection that was secretly discussed between Trump's advisors via email...started by a heart surgeon named Atlas.
  • No statistical models supporting natural herd immunity on millions of citizens.
This is my reason why I refer to natural herd immunity as criminal and possibly genocide when used as an experiment by the wrong people that does not follow the science about its citizens that are in the high risk group.

-------

...Estimates of the threshold for SARS-CoV-2 range from 10% to 70% or even more5,6. But models that calculate numbers at the lower end of that range rely on assumptions about how people interact in social networks that might not hold true, Scarpino says. Low-end estimates imagine that people with many contacts will get infected first, and that because they have a large number of contacts, they will spread the virus to more people.

As these ‘superspreaders’ gain immunity to the virus, the transmission chains among those who are still susceptible are greatly reduced. And “as a result of that, you very quickly get to the herd-immunity threshold”, Scarpino says. But if it turns out that anybody could become a superspreader, then “those assumptions that people are relying on to get the estimates down to around 20% or 30% are just not accurate”, Scarpino explains. The result is that the herd-immunity threshold will be closer to 60–70%, which is what most models show (see, for example, ref. 6).

Looking at known superspreader events in prisons and on cruise ships, it seems clear that COVID-19 spreads widely initially, before slowing down in a captive, unvaccinated population, Andersen says. At San Quentin State Prison in California, more than 60% of the population was ultimately infected before the outbreak was halted, so it wasn’t as if it magically stopped after 30% of people got the virus, Andersen says. “There’s no mysterious dark matter that protects people,” he says.

And although scientists can estimate herd-immunity thresholds, they won’t know the actual numbers in real time, says Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in Baltimore. Instead, herd immunity is something that can be observed with certainty only by analysing the data in retrospect, maybe as long as ten years afterwards, she says...
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wrbtrader[/QUOTE]
 
1/3 of the population do not know they have an underlying medical condition.

Simply, they will not self-isolate nor can you identify them because they do not know they are in the high risk group. This isn't rocket science especially with almost 350,000 Covid-19 Deaths and millions not knowing they will most likely be designated as someone with a "pre-condition" after testing positive but did not develop any serious illness.

:D

wrbtrader
 
This is the part of the lefty argument for lockdowns... I do not understand...

If we can force everyone to lockdown... when can't we force the high risk group to lock down better?...
If we had done this when the hospitals had capacity and did it well?
We may have modulated this second wave far better and eliminated far more of the burden on our health care systems?

if your point is we can't lockdown the high risk perfectly... I concede that point.

But... we can do it hundreds of times better...

CA is the most locked down state in the US and it is failing the most.
The policies we have followed were poorly designed and not tailored to the remedies we needed.




You said -
1/3 of the population do not know they have an underlying medical condition.

Simply, they will not self-isolate nor can you identify them because they do not know they are in the high risk group. This isn't rocket science especially with almost 350,000 Covid-19 Deaths and millions not knowing they will most likely be designated as someone with a "pre-condition" after testing positive but did not develop any serious illness.
 
And as in many other places their government leaders don't even follow the rules they established.

Swedish PM Slammed for Shopping Tour Amid Latest Covid Surge
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ed-for-shopping-tour-in-middle-of-covid-surge

A number of the most senior members of Sweden’s government, including the prime minister, have been caught apparently ignoring their own Covid guidelines.

Prime Minister Stefan Lofven and Justice Minister Morgan Johansson were among those named in Swedish media this week for seeming to flout restrictions they insist must be followed if the country is to rein in the coronavirus.

Lofven went Christmas shopping in a mall without a face mask after explicitly appealing to Swedes to avoid such excursions ahead of the festive season. His spokesman has acknowledged the trip took place, which he says was “carefully planned” to avoid unnecessary risks.

The development adds a layer of potential embarrassment to Sweden’s handling of the Covid crisis. The country initially defended its no-lockdown strategy, before backtracking in recent weeks amid a resurgence of cases that threatens to overwhelm its health-care system. Lofven is now trying to persuade parliament to give him the power to impose a full lockdown.

The government has already seen confidence in its Covid strategy sink, with even King Carl XVI Gustaf delivering a rare rebuke for Sweden’s failure to contain the death toll. About 8,500 Swedes have died of Covid-19, roughly seven times as many as in neighboring Denmark.

Twitter
Lofven’s shopping trip lit up Twitter, with several of Sweden’s best known political commentators warning that the incident risks denting his credibility among voters.

“Who should follow the rules if not even the Prime Minister and the Minister of Justice do so?” Dagens Nyheter, Sweden’s biggest morning newspaper, wrote in an editorial published Tuesday evening.

Other government members have also reportedly engaged in conduct that breached Covid guidelines, including Sweden’s Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson, Aftonbladet reported on Wednesday. According to the newspaper, she was seen in a ski rental shop in the popular Swedish winter resort of Salen, which is on the list of destinations the National Health Authority has warned against visiting.

With infection rates spreading since the fall, Lofven has had to step up his rhetoric entreating his countrymen to “refrain from staying in indoor environments such as shops, shopping centers.” Last month, he reminded Swedes “how dangerous” such conduct is.

At a briefing this month, Lofven said, “I hope and I think that everyone in Sweden understands the seriousness” of the situation.

A spokesman for Lofven said his Christmas shopping tours included purchases of alcohol and a present for his wife. He also visited a shop that fixes watches and looked for spare parts for his razor. His most recent known shopping trip was on Dec. 23.
 
Sweden recommends masks during rush hour, as coronavirus deaths hit record number
https://www.thelocal.se/20201231/sw...ng-rush-hour-as-coronavirus-deaths-hit-record

As the Swedish death toll from Covid-19 hits a record number, the updated advice on face masks comes just a day after the national health agency recommended that more healthcare workers wear masks too.

On Wednesday December 30, Sweden announced that it had registered 8,846 new Covid-19 cases and 243 deaths, the highest in Sweden since the pandemic began.

However, the health agency also said that statistics over the Christmas period could be skewed because of less testing and delays in reporting deaths.

“We know that public transport means situations where congestion can be difficult to avoid ... then mouth protection can be useful,” state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell told Reuters.

The updated guidance from Sweden’s health authority and Tegnell, who was the main advocator for not locking down, marks a change in strategy for the country.

Throughout the duration of the pandemic, Tegnell has said that there is poor evidence of the effectiveness of masks and also added that they might be used as an excuse not to isolate when ill with the virus.

Sweden’s total death toll stands at 8,727. Its death rate per capita is several times higher than that of its Nordic neighbours, but lower than in several European countries, which opted for lockdowns and had stricter measures in place.
 
The lefties govt / lockdown crowd...
seem to argue
If govt acts... then its good.
I would say... Govt could have done far better.

I would say... if lockdowns can be ordered on everyone...
We could have locked down the high risk far better.

It might not have been a perfect lockdown.
But... it could have been hundreds of times more effective and better
that we have done. And we might have save lives.




You wrote - "
1/3 of the population do not know they have an underlying medical condition.

Simply, they will not self-isolate nor can you identify them because they do not know they are in the high risk group. This isn't rocket science especially with almost 350,000 Covid-19 Deaths and millions not knowing they will most likely be designated as someone with a "pre-condition" after testing positive but did not develop any serious illness."
 
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