In the Coronavirus Fight in Scandinavia, Sweden Stands Apart

hey... i did a little research... the experts don't think this virus will go away... so shutdown for low risk groups is unsupported by science.


https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-outbreak-end.html

"I think it's unlikely that this coronavirus — because it's so readily transmissible — will disappear completely," said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious-disease specialist at Vanderbilt University in Tennessee.


Eradication of a disease is "difficult and rarely achieved," according to the World Health Organization. For that to happen, there must be an available intervention to interrupt transmission, there must be diagnostic tools to detect cases that could lead to transmission and humans must be the only reservoir for the virus, they wrote.


Even if the coronavirus is eradicated among humans, if the virus continues to survive in its natural form in animal reservoirs, those reservoirs can put the virus back into circulation, Epstein said. "I think it's always possible the thing has one cycle, we nail it, it doesn't mutate and it's eradicated," he added. "But I think the most likely prospect is that we don't entirely eradicate it."


There's a chance that, even if we manage to quench this virus, it might turn into a seasonal disease, making a comeback every year like other seasonal diseases such as the flu or colds, Epstein said. If that happens, there's a chance it could have less of an impact during subsequent circulations because more people will have built up immunity, Adalja said. But it's not clear if humans can become reinfected with this virus yet, Gordon said.


People can get reinfected by the other circulating coronaviruses because our immunity to them wanes over time. Immunity doesn't wane with every virus, however. With viruses such as the one that causes measles, once someone has it or has been vaccinated against it, they won't become reinfected, Schaffner said.


Though waning immunity is the most likely cause for reinfection, it's also possible that viruses might mutate just enough to evade the immune system. "But right now, there is no evidence that the coronavirus is mutating in any significant way," Gordon said. "The viral sequences that are available are nearly identical."


It's difficult to predict how the virus will behave.
 
"Sure, Sweden may have sacrificed its vulnerable by not having a lockdown, but at least it saved its economy.... Åh shiat"

While Sweden’s less stringent lockdown has received a lot of attention, today’s data add to the evidence that economic activity there has not fared much better than elsewhere in Europe.
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/pu...wiss-data-response/manufacturing-pmis-apr-14/

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Sweden had no lockdown but its economy is expected to suffer just as badly as its European neighbors
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/cor...ntract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html
  • Sweden did not impose a full lockdown on public life or businesses, despite the coronavirus outbreak.
  • Data released from the country’s central bank and a leading Swedish think tank show that the economy will be just as badly hit as its European neighbors.
  • Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, gave two possible scenarios for the economic outlook in 2020, both are bleak.
Sweden has attracted global attention for not imposing a full lockdown, as seen in most of Europe, to contain the coronavirus pandemic.

Nonetheless, data released from the country’s central bank and a leading Swedish think tank show that the economy will be just as badly hit as its European neighbors, if not worse.

Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, gave two possible scenarios for the economic outlook in 2020, which it said “depend on how long the spread of infection continues and on how long the restrictions implemented to slow it down are in place.” Both possible economic outcomes are bleak.

In the first scenario (scenario A in the chart below), gross domestic product contracts by 6.9% in 2020 before rebounding to grow 4.6% in 2021. In a more negative prediction (scenario B), GDP could contract by 9.7% and a recovery could be slower with the economy growing 1.7% in 2021.

In the first scenario, the Riksbank predicted unemployment could reach 8.8% in 2020, from 7.2% currently, and in the worst-case forecast could hit 10.1%.

“In both scenarios, production falls sharply to begin with, and more than during the financial crisis. Sharply falling oil and electricity prices will contribute to low inflation this year,” the Riksbank said. It predicts the inflation rate will stay at 0.6% in 2020, in both scenarios.

The growth projections are sobering for a country that looked to mitigate the economic impact of the coronavirus by not shutting down its economy like the rest of Europe. Lockdowns in Germany, Spain, Italy, France and the U.K., aimed at saving countless lives, have all hit their economies severely.

The International Monetary Fund predicted earlier in April that Germany and the U.K. will see their economies contract by 6.5% and 7% this year, respectively. France is expected to see a 7.2% contraction, Spain an 8% contraction and for Italy to see its economy shrink 9.1%.

Sweden’s neighbors Finland and Denmark, which also imposed lockdowns, are also expected to see their economies contract by 6% and 6.5%, respectively.

The Swedish government advised citizens to stay at, and work from, home if possible. Bars and restaurants remain open but social-distancing measures have been implemented, while schools for the under-16s remain open.

The strategy has proved very controversial but its chief epidemiologist has defended the approach, telling CNBC last week that the capital Stockholm could be heading for “herd immunity” in weeks.

Still, Sweden’s supply chains and businesses have been damaged by the pandemic and the Riksbank warned that “many companies will be hit hard and many people will lose their jobs,” although it decided to hold its benchmark interest rate at zero this week.

It also decided against adding any new measures to support the economy (it has already introduced a loan package for Swedish companies and increased its bond-buying program) but said it was ready to do more if needed.

“It was not deemed justified at this point in time to try to increase demand by lowering the repo rate when the downturn in the economy is due to imposed restrictions and people’s concerns about the spread of infection,” the Riksbank said in a statement Tuesday.

“However, this does not rule out the possibility of the interest rate being cut at a later date if this is deemed an effective measure to stimulate demand and support the development of inflation in the recovery phase.”

The grim data from Sweden’s central bank has been reinforced by a respected think tank this week. The National Institute for Economic Research (NIER) said in a statement Wednesday that it believed that Sweden’s economy is set to shrink 7% this year and unemployment to rise to 10.2%.

“Developments in April indicate that the Covid-19 pandemic will hit the Swedish economy much harder than anticipated,” the NIER said, adding that “the global economy is developing worse than expected which is hitting Swedish export companies which are also hampered by problems with international supply chains.”

(More information about the complete train wreck of Sweden's economy including charts at the above url)
 
Their unemployment is expected to rise to 10.2 %.
Our unemployment rate per the WSJ is expected to be 16.1 percent on Friday.
 
jem said:
Their unemployment is expected to rise to 10.2 %.
Our unemployment rate per the WSJ is expected to be 16.1 percent on Friday.
More...

So the unemployment in Sweden is projected to rise to 10.2%.
A projected unemployment figure which is greater than its neighbors Finland and Denmark.
 
That makes sense to you? Of course it does. You thought Fauci's projections were good too.

I would give your sources economic models about the same chance of being accurate as Fauci's were.

Although to be accurate I think we would have to see just how shutdown the other economies were.

And I see we are not looking at every economy in the region... why not?

gwb-trading said:
So the unemployment in Sweden is projected to rise to 10.2%.
A projected unemployment figure which is greater than its neighbors Finland and Denmark.
More...
 
Last edited:
The WHO made a thinly veiled dig at Sweden's loose coronavirus lockdown, saying 'humans are not herds' and old people are not disposable
https://www.businessinsider.com/herd-immunity-few-people-have-had-the-coronavirus-who-2020-5
  • On Monday, the World Health Organization blasted the idea of "herd immunity" for the coronavirus.
  • "Herd immunity" is the concept that if enough people in society (the "herd") either contract or get vaccinated against an infectious disease, and thereby develop immunity to it, it could lower the risk of another serious outbreak.
  • Sweden, a country which has resisted strict lockdowns, has suggested that Stockholm might reach herd immunity status soon. But scientists don't even know yet if a COVID-19 infection confers future immunity.
  • Antibody tests being taken around the world suggest very few people have had the novel coronavirus anyway, suggesting a prevalence rate lower than 10%, and possibly as low as 1%.
  • The WHO's Mike Ryan said it is "dangerous" to think that countries who've been "lax" about controlling the virus might "all of a sudden magically reach some herd immunity."
The world is nowhere close to becoming immune to the coronavirus, and leaders at the World Health Organization Monday expressed outrage at the idea that some people might have to die in pursuit of a far-fetched virus-fighting strategy called herd immunity.

"This idea that, 'well, maybe countries who had lax measures and haven't done anything will all of a sudden magically reach some herd immunity, and so what if we lose a few old people along the way?' This is a really dangerous, dangerous calculation," the WHO's Executive Director of Health Emergencies Mike Ryan said on a call with reporters.

Ryan didn't mention any specific countries by name, but it was hard not to think about the high death rate in Swedish nursing homes as he mentioned that "in some countries, over half of the cases have occurred in longterm care facilities," where people haven't been "properly shielded."

Sweden has remained an outlier with its relaxed disease-fighting strategy, keeping bars, schools, and gyms open during the pandemic, while also encouraging people to stay home when they're sick, social distance, and wash their hands frequently to avoid spreading the virus.

The term 'herd immunity' is meant to be used for vaccines, not illnesses — which can kill people

One of the benefits that health leaders in Sweden have thought they might, perhaps, acquire in this way, is something called "herd immunity."

The term is one that epidemiologists have been using for years to describe how a population that is by and large vaccinated can help protect its most vulnerable individuals (often, babies and immunocompromised people), including those who may not safely be able to get injections themselves, by making sure that most people in a community are immune to a disease. When such herd immunity is present, it's hard for a virus to spread.

But Ryan reminded his audience on Monday that this kind of herding strategy, when it's used to talk about naturally borne infections that we get from other people, rather than shots, has some sobering and sometimes fatal consequences which immunizations do not.

Put bluntly, getting people sick can kill.

"Humans are not herds," Ryan said. "I think we need to be really careful when we use terms in this way around natural infections in humans, because it can lead to a very brutal arithmetic which does not put people, and life, and suffering at the center of that equation."

Evidence so far suggests that herd immunity is a very far off goal for the coronavirus, anyway.

(More at the above url)
 
The ‘Swedish Model’ Is a Failure, Not a Panacea
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/28759/the-swedish-model-is-a-failure-not-a-panacea

When economies around the world started grinding to a halt in an effort to stop the carnage inflicted by the coronavirus, Sweden stood out with an approach that appeared to defy the prescription of most experts. Instead of shutting down, the Swedish government opted for much milder measures. The idea looked appealing. It suggested the possibility of containing the pandemic at a much lower economic cost.

The final judgment on Sweden’s unorthodox approach cannot be rendered until the crisis moves into the history books. So far, however, the statistics suggest that the Swedish model is more disaster than panacea. If the pandemic ended today, the actions of Swedish authorities, which have so far earned the support of the population, may ultimately be viewed by future generations of Swedes as a shameful chapter in the country’s history, one that resulted in large-scale suffering and thousands of unnecessary deaths.

(More at above url)
 
Sweden records highest number of coronavirus deaths for three weeks as it announces plan to hire 10,000 more nursing assistants after pandemic exposed care home failures
  • Sweden has recorded 147 new deaths today, standing at a total of 3,460 deaths
  • The country also has 637 new coronavirus cases, reaching 27,909 cases overall
  • April 21 was the last peak in its daily deaths, when 185 people died from the virus
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...st-number-coronavirus-deaths-three-weeks.html
 
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