In Praise of Trump ... finally winning... our President

[jem]

and there was a time after the polls herded (per Nate Silver) or as I was predicting (unskewed) where it become very close and some polls had Romney in the lead. Then there was a strom and a hug and the poll or 2 put Obama back in the lead... (if I recall correctly)

As that thread moved along I focused more on what a proper template was an started to emphasize that polls were not about predicting as much as they were showing what would happen if the polls were tomorrow.

What I have also learned is that about 90 to 95 percent of Rs will vote R, 90 to 95 percent of dems will vote dem.

So these races are really about using an accurate template to show how what the independents are doing. once you get the templates properly set up with slightly more Democrats... you look to see if the independents are leaning to the Rs by enough points to counter the 2-4 points democrats might have in Presidential elections. Overall because more Independents are really republicans the electorate is far more balanced than the dems like to pretend.

I tease you, but I remember when you were running Romney polls with this "algo" showing how Romney was going to win.

 

[Tony Stark]

because that algo has been proven correct in the last 2 presidential elections.

jem is walking up the street to vote.
he then has a bunch of business things today and will then fund his trading account... for his future journal. he will then play golf.he will then go with the kids and wife to a dinner place to celebrate.he will then returhn home, grab a beer and watch as the the media
explains this surprise Romney victory...

any chance you can to compare that to the 2008 early turnout.
I suspect those numbers portend a Romney victory.

Progam Note...
The jem balance algo has been terminated.
The jem polling blog will not be started.

 

[jem]

How many times have I showed you this to you Tony.
I posted this 2 nights before the election.... just so everyone could see exactly what I was thinking... about the algo. How many times did I tell you as AK 47 polls are not about predicting the winner but about what the electorate is doing at that point in time.

The algo nailed the proper templates and that is what the purpose of the algo was. To take the crooked polls and unskew them to a proper template. Which was simply a template which was bounded by approximately the previous presidential election turnout to perhaps the mid term turnout.

Having polls with Democrat rich samples was a joke in 2012 and a disaster for your side in 2016.




https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/romney-looks-like-the-next-pres.240772/page-335

"as I posted on another thread... here is my summary of this thread.


polls slanted greater to the Dems than the 2008 the template are leftist frauds... and they should be chastised. This will include the crazy predictions made by nate silver.

polls with the 2008 template are leftists, fools, or blind.
even axelrod said last night they will not do as well as 2008.

poll between 2010 and 2008 are professional... perhaps a little partisan as they get closer to 2008.

polls with 2010... are perhaps a bit partisan to the Rs but smart.


but IMO

polls should slanted more to the Is and the Rs because that is what the turnout on Tuesday will teach us.

all these pollsters... underweighted the Is."

 

[Tony Stark]

How many times have I showed you this to you Tony.
I posted this 2 nights before the election.... just so everyone could see exactly what I was thinking... about the algo. How many times did I tell you as AK 47 polls are not about predicting the winner but about what the electorate is doing at that point in time.

The algo nailed the proper templates and that is what the purpose of the algo was. To take the crooked polls and unskew them to a proper template. Which was simply a template which was bounded by approximately the previous presidential election turnout to perhaps the mid term turnout.

Having polls with Democrat rich samples was a joke in 2012 and a disaster for your side in 2016.




https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/romney-looks-like-the-next-pres.240772/page-335

"as I posted on another thread... here is my summary of this thread.


polls slanted greater to the Dems than the 2008 the template are leftist frauds... and they should be chastised. This will include the crazy predictions made by nate silver.

polls with the 2008 template are leftists, fools, or blind.
even axelrod said last night they will not do as well as 2008.

poll between 2010 and 2008 are professional... perhaps a little partisan as they get closer to 2008.

polls with 2010... are perhaps a bit partisan to the Rs but smart.


but IMO

polls should slanted more to the Is and the Rs because that is what the turnout on Tuesday will teach us.

all these pollsters... underweighted the Is."

Stick with this jem,stick with this

Progam Note...
The jem balance algo has been terminated.
The jem polling blog will not be started.

 

[Tony Stark]

Having polls with Democrat rich samples was a joke in 2012 and a disaster for your side in 2016.

In both cases the polls said the democrat would get more votes.In both cases the democrat got millions more votes.

 

[jem]

weeks and months before the elections your polls used templates very slanted to the dems and underweighted for Rs and Is. Those polls were very crooked. And because of you all thought hillary was going to win. You were citing your sources to show hillary would win the electoral college by really large margins.

We predicted your crooked polls would eventually unskew right infront of the election. They did.

And again its not about predicting the winners the algo was about the correct templates. Had you polls not been crooked they would have shown a race inside the margin of error. Which it what happened in 2016.

In both cases the polls said the democrat would get more votes.In both cases the democrat got millions more votes.

 

[Tony Stark]

We predicted your crooked polls would eventually unskew right infront of the election. They did.

Thank Jim Comey for Hillary's poll numbers dropping right in front of the election,not the jem algo.

 

[jem]

so are you saying the polls did not change their templates right in front of the election or are you just bullshitting your ass off?

Because I remember tracking this.
2 things happened. your polls were constantly adjust to hide the swings in the independents.
at one point Trump had about a 2 digit lead with independents. then for a few days after the Billy Bush tape... it seemed that Trumps lead with independents shrunk. But then it rebuilt again.

at the time... if I remember correctly - I was thinking it was very close in the margin and then for a few days hillary had a slight lead outside the margin and then it fell back in the margin.

I don't recall comey moving the needle much. although its possible he triggered a quick move back by the independents.

Of course this is going to very hard to analyze because your polls were using crooked templates or not revealing their templates at all.

Thank Jim Comey for Hillary's poll numbers dropping right in front of the election,not the jem algo.

 

[Slartibartfast]

Who wants to praise him about this?

Trump claims Obama, other past presidents didn't call families of fallen soldiers

The draft dodger has no shame at all.

 

[Tony Stark]

so are you saying the polls did not change their templates right in front of the election or are you just bullshitting your ass off?

Because I remember tracking this.
2 things happened. your polls were constantly adjust to hide the swings in the independents.
at one point Trump had about a 2 digit lead with independents. then for a few days after the Billy Bush tape... it seemed that Trumps lead with independents shrunk. But then it rebuilt again.

at the time... if I remember correctly - I was thinking it was very close in the margin and then for a few days hillary had a slight lead outside the margin and then it fell back in the margin.

I don't recall comey moving the needle much. although its possible he triggered a quick move back by the independents.

Of course this is going to very hard to analyze because your polls were using crooked templates or not revealing their templates at all.

Jem I told you I'm not into jem algo bullshit.Hillary's poll numbers dropped after Comey said she was back under FBI investigation.