In order for the EU to survive, it has to implement Fiscal Transfers

[smallStops]

That the Greeks seem to like themselves : I can not see any problem with that.
From what I understand of the Greek situation, the blame is put on the corrupt politicians
who colluded with EU officials to bankrupt Greece. This is why may be, some Greeks do not
feel that they owe the EU anything, but that they are owed by the EU.

 

[Tsing Tao]

What will happen with the hundreds of billions in debt? They basically default on it all at once. That is exactly the scenario everyone tries to avert. You are thus believing Greece will default on the entirety at some point anyway?

Yes. I've said this to you about 100 times. What cannot (or will not) be repaid, won't.

It's been a sham since the beginning.

 

[Ditch]

Yes. I've said this to you about 100 times. What cannot (or will not) be repaid, won't.

It's been a sham since the beginning.

He's the type of German that can't get that into his skull.

 

[volpunter]

You remain opaque. You are saying you believe none of the current outstanding debt will be repaid?

Yes. I've said this to you about 100 times. What cannot (or will not) be repaid, won't.

It's been a sham since the beginning.

 

[Tsing Tao]

You remain opaque. You are saying you believe none of the current outstanding debt will be repaid?

You remain obtuse. How many times do I have to say it?

I do believe the Greeks will default on any loans made to them (apart from the amounts that they get and immediately return back to their creditors -which is a large portion of the "I'll pay you so you can pay me back" silliness).

So any money they get in loans from this point on that gets turned around and immediately sent back to a creditor - no, they obviously won't default on those. But everything else, yes. They will not change, even if they agree to change. It's a lost cause.

 

[volpunter]

Thanks for clarifying. So, then I do not understand your apparent contradiction: on one hand you are claiming for months that the Greeks can turn things around with a fresh start. You even claimed that they could do relatively well via a deflated currency and tourism alone. Turning things around apparently means that they can again achieve budget surpluses. If that was indeed the case then they can also repay debt. At least they would have the capacity to do so. Now , a nation that is indebted but could repay the debt but refuses to do so in most people's book is a nation of savages. This was my point and you went ballistic over me even using this term.

Can you clarify where in thus line of argumentation there is a hole? Because it looks highly contradictory to me. And can you please try to just help clarify this apparent confusion rather than diverting into how ridiculous you find this whole spiel of offering funding to finance the repayment to the same creditor the financing originated from.

You remain obtuse. How many times do I have to say it?

I do believe the Greeks will default on any loans made to them (apart from the amounts that they get and immediately return back to their creditors -which is a large portion of the "I'll pay you so you can pay me back" silliness).

So any money they get in loans from this point on that gets turned around and immediately sent back to a creditor - no, they obviously won't default on those. But everything else, yes. They will not change, even if they agree to change. It's a lost cause.

 

[EnergyTrader]

So, then I do not understand your apparent contradiction: on one hand you are claiming for months that the Greeks can turn things around with a fresh start. You even claimed that they could do relatively well via a deflated currency and tourism alone. Turning things around apparently means that they can again achieve budget surpluses. If that was indeed the case then they can also repay debt. At least they would have the capacity to do so. Now , a nation that is indebted but could repay the debt but refuses to do so in most people's book is a nation of savages.

You need to stop falling into the trap of collective guilt : Blaming individual Greek citizens for Greek Sovereign debt makes no more sense than blaming individual Germans for WWII or Hitler or German debt defaults after WWI and WWII. Individual citizens have never been legally responsible for sovereign debt.

The reasons responsible sovereign nations pay their debt is that a reputation for paying your debt greatly reduces the cost of borrowing and is a worthwhile long term investment. Moreover in the past most sovereign debt was owed to their own citizens, so in a democracy politicians responsible for a default would face the wrath of their voters.

Greece has already lost all reputation for being able/willing to repay their debt and can no longer borrow at reasonable rates on the open market : part of that is their historical reputation for defaulting and political corruption, but part of that is also the fault of Mrs. Merkel who first suggested in 2010 that Greece would never be able to repay and a partial default was inevitable and hence Banks need to accept a "haircut" : the day this was reported Greek sovereign interest rates almost doubled overnight into default territory and have never recovered since. Once that happens it makes more sense to default 100% : If Greek politicians had been smart in 2010, they would have just turned down the "bailout" and done a 100% default, which would have been legal since the debt was owed to private parties only. Then they would have probably only been able to borrow domestically for the next 20 years, but that would have been OK, especially if they quite the Euro. Now this option is only available if they also quit the Euro, since Greece cannot default on ECB held debt without being kicked out of the Euro.

I think the best move for Greece is to default 100% (except perhaps to exempt the first 25000 Euro per person for Greek citizens holding Greek bonds) and switch back to the Drachma. For some reason Greek politicians seem to prefer to stay in the Euro and using the implicit threat of default to get a partial (30%) debt forgiveness while staying within the Euro, but they don't seem to realize that no other country is going to agree to this. Germany seems willing to offer lower interest rates and longer repayment periods : with the right numbers this can be as valuable as a 30% debt forgiveness, but Greek politicians seem too dumb to understand this.

PS: Disclosure : my mother is German.

 

[TooOldForThis]

The more I look at this, the more I'm convinced that Greece is doomed. Not only do they have to leave the Euro, but that's not going to help their economy.

I don't think their worst problem is corruption. I think it's that their country is simply unfriendly to business. So using the Euro meant that their best businesses had to compete with the best businesses in Germany and Switzerland and they just couldn't do that. So their businesses ended up folding or moving to more friendly regions and their productive employees followed. What's left is hopeless.

Does anyone agree with this? And what happens to industrialized countries that become unfriendly to business and drive business away? Are there examples from history?

 

[volpunter]

@TingTao, would you please help me understand this contradiction?

Thanks for clarifying. So, then I do not understand your apparent contradiction: on one hand you are claiming for months that the Greeks can turn things around with a fresh start. You even claimed that they could do relatively well via a deflated currency and tourism alone. Turning things around apparently means that they can again achieve budget surpluses. If that was indeed the case then they can also repay debt. At least they would have the capacity to do so. Now , a nation that is indebted but could repay the debt but refuses to do so in most people's book is a nation of savages. This was my point and you went ballistic over me even using this term.

Can you clarify where in thus line of argumentation there is a hole? Because it looks highly contradictory to me. And can you please try to just help clarify this apparent confusion rather than diverting into how ridiculous you find this whole spiel of offering funding to finance the repayment to the same creditor the financing originated from.

 

[i am nobody]

Does anyone agree with this? And what happens to industrialized countries that become unfriendly to business and drive business away? Are there examples from history?

I agree. I think that explains also why France was deteriorating so quickly the last few years. Unemployment is above 10%, double from German unemployment.
Many of these countries have one thing in common: a socialistic government. A red government automatically implies red figures on the economical balance sheets.
Sample: car industry in Germany is growing many years in a row. In Belgium the same industry disappeared almost completely. In 2001 production was 1.2 mio cars today it is less than 400.000. Ford Genk had 14.000 workers and is now closed. GM Antwerpen had over 10.000 workers and closed in 2010. Production shifted to more attractive countries.