In one sentence, what is your edge for 2019?

[Handle123]

I believe you are a successful trader Handle123, so my comment is not directed at you but rather at the idea a successful trading system might be one that accepts "...15 losing trades in a row...[and] 2% risk [per trade]...". Could there be such a system and a profitable trader who trades it? Yes. But that would be a rare combination, not a model most traders should consider or seek to master. A much better model for most would be: more winning trades than losing trades; average win larger than average loss.

I have had twice in my life 23 losing Futures trades in a row, once before using hedging and lost $5,000 as I was risking $200 per trade and the other I was up $25k because I hedged all 23 trades in Crude Oil, the 24th was getting short approx 147.00. My very long term commodities system seeks 75% of the range of last 9 years, so I expect to lose often and profitable trades are 5-15% per year. My risk on these trades are nearly zero because of the hedging, and since I go for the homerun profits, losses are very small on the hedge with one huge profit eventually.

I have never gotten my long term percentages to be anything to speak about in 41 years of stock trading either, but reward to risk been more than 2 to 1 and now that too risk is nearly zero.

I only go by back testing to show possibilities, but I don't learn much by losing trades as I am not trying to get more of them, but am always studying how not to lose on overall position. My study leans more on less drawdown in percentages and not how much I am going to make, all we can control mostly is risk.

 

[Option_Attack]

My edge is my hedge.
Once hedged I look for rising wedge.
Trial by fire, I earn my badge.

And if it doesn't work, I jump off the ledge.

 

[Gedman]

I have had twice in my life 23 losing Futures trades in a row, once before using hedging and lost $5,000 as I was risking $200 per trade and the other I was up $25k because I hedged all 23 trades in Crude Oil, the 24th was getting short approx 147.00. My very long term commodities system seeks 75% of the range of last 9 years, so I expect to lose often and profitable trades are 5-15% per year. My risk on these trades are nearly zero because of the hedging, and since I go for the homerun profits, losses are very small on the hedge with one huge profit eventually.

I have never gotten my long term percentages to be anything to speak about in 41 years of stock trading either, but reward to risk been more than 2 to 1 and now that too risk is nearly zero.

I only go by back testing to show possibilities, but I don't learn much by losing trades as I am not trying to get more of them, but am always studying how not to lose on overall position. My study leans more on less drawdown in percentages and not how much I am going to make, all we can control mostly is risk.

Your approach in your very long term commodities system should not be argued with. It makes sense, especially since you also have a profitable intraday system. You are a perspicacious fellow. My comment had I think a larger group of traders in mind and was from an intraday perspective.

 

[Overnight]

There is no edge only ZUUL!

 

[Steve Alexander]

Long only the four triple ETFs. TQQQ, SPXL, TNA, and UDOW.

 

[digitalnomad]

Long only the four triple ETFs. TQQQ, SPXL, TNA, and UDOW.

Cool story bro!

 

[ph1l]

My edge is using genetic programming and k-nearest neighbor machine learning.

 

[Handle123]

Your approach in your very long term commodities system should not be argued with. It makes sense, especially since you also have a profitable intraday system. You are a perspicacious fellow. My comment had I think a larger group of traders in mind and was from an intraday perspective.

I think mainly cause of fees, makes more sense to do less trades like 1-3 per day, stay in longer and risk much less than profits. But from my standpoint trend trades are luck. Never know when it will happen, so risking as littler as possible way to go.

 

[userque]

My edge is using genetic programming and k-nearest neighbor machine learning.

Interesting ... what platform are you using?

 

[schweiz]

I think mainly cause of fees, makes more sense to do less trades like 1-3 per day, stay in longer and risk much less than profits.

Exactly, not every move has the same potential, you should know how to recognize which ones have more potential and which ones don't.

But from my standpoint trend trades are luck. Never know when it will happen, so risking as littler as possible way to go.

My personal experience is that trend trades are not luck. You have to find a way to see if, with high probability, the trend will reverse. And that is possible. You only need an advance of 1 minute, that's enough.
Many times what people call luck is just a lack of the specifically needed knowledge (has nothing to do with being smart because of a high education). People tend to think that thins happening without them to understand why has all to do with luck. There are a lot of things that I don't understand that look like luck... till they explained me why it happened...
Successful intraday trading is a very complex matter. But once you master it...