In one sentence, what is your edge for 2019?

maxinger · Feb 14, 2019

traider said:
My edge is my hedge.
Once hedged I look for rising wedge.
Trial by fire, I earn my badge.

nice poem

neke · Feb 14, 2019

IAS_LLC said:
Most of my returns come from the higher order moments (volatility and kurtosis)

Hard to see how you can predict 2nd and 3rd derivatives, and be clueless on the main function.

IAS_LLC · Feb 14, 2019

Didn't say anything about being clueless...just that signal to noise ratio is low .

Lou Greed · Feb 16, 2019

Create a trading plan, follow it, and control my emotions.

tenny1886 · Feb 16, 2019

still looking for an edge for longer ticks. Price action and short EMA works for 2-5 tick scalps. But scalping is risky and with tight stops more often you make very little profits, Also commission and fees eats into your profit. I trade almost 40-50 contracts a day and end of day it is not much profit to show with commission of $200 or more a day. Better to trade reversals and trends unless you can manage to trade large lots scalping 2-3 ticks. i am still looking for the edge in longer duration trades that is something like 5-10 points. Also commission and fees stays under control. Trying to set up something using price action, EMA and volume profile and OBV.

traider · Feb 16, 2019

tenny1886 said:
still looking for an edge for longer ticks. Price action and short EMA works for 2-5 tick scalps. But scalping is risky and with tight stops more often you make very little profits, Also commission and fees eats into your profit. I trade almost 40-50 contracts a day and end of day it is not much profit to show with commission of $200 or more a day. Better to trade reversals and trends unless you can manage to trade large lots scalping 2-3 ticks. i am still looking for the edge in longer duration trades that is something like 5-10 points. Also commission and fees stays under control. Trying to set up something using price action, EMA and volume profile and OBV.

What are your comms and which instrument are you trading? It's insane to do your volume without special rates.

digitalnomad · Feb 16, 2019

neke said:
Hard to see how you can predict 2nd and 3rd derivatives, and be clueless on the main function.

You the guy who lost 500k journaled here?

Gedman · Feb 16, 2019

Handle123 said:
I have spent last eight years studying, back testing hedging and other ideas of trading, hedging can be done using futures like Indexes if hedging stocks, or options. Without going in depth responses cause I simply don't want to share what I have learned, there is much to doing it in different ways, plus keeping drawdowns very low. Whereas not hedging, you will encounter drawdowns that will have to be made up to just get to even on your account. If you have 15 losing trades in a row and use 2% risk, you are going to have to make approx. 30% to bring account back to 0% on the year. Whereas with hedging, doing exact same trades, can be positive for the year, take loss on the underlying and keeping the long Puts longer till entire loss recovered and then some. So instead of having 30% drawdown, with hedges much less and therefore can beat the "averages" with smaller gains than the not hedged 30% drawdown. Much depends on profitable percentages and R to R.

I believe you are a successful trader Handle123, so my comment is not directed at you but rather at the idea a successful trading system might be one that accepts "...15 losing trades in a row...[and] 2% risk [per trade]...". Could there be such a system and a profitable trader who trades it? Yes. But that would be a rare combination, not a model most traders should consider or seek to master. A much better model for most would be: more winning trades than losing trades; average win larger than average loss.

themickey · Feb 16, 2019

Gedman said:
I believe you are a successful trader Handle123, so my comment is not directed at you but rather at the idea a successful trading system might be one that accepts "...15 losing trades in a row...[and] 2% risk [per trade]...". Could there be such a system and a profitable trader who trades it? Yes. But that would be a rare combination, not a model most traders should consider or seek to master. A much better model for most would be: more winning trades than losing trades; average win larger than average loss.

The market has its ups and downs.
Just recently for example with the market pullback one may have experienced a greater run of losses but now the landscape has changed that bad run has come to an end for now.

Gedman · Feb 16, 2019

themickey said:
The market has its ups and downs.
Just recently for example with the market pullback one may have experienced a greater run of losses but now the landscape has changed that bad run has come to an end for now.

I trade intraday only. Never hold anything overnight. My comment was from this perspective. A down market for a few weeks/months, an up market for a few weeks/months doesn't affect my trading plan.