In need of a black swan event

M

magicz

Things to ponder that can break the US market.
- Subprime mess? nope not relevant
- Illogical valuation? nope
- Fraud? nope
- Student loans? probably not
- Oil price? nope not so far
- CDO? nope
- FED's balance sheet? nope(yellen said no selling).
- Auto loans? nope too small on the bank balance sheet.
- Weak world macro? nope not so far.
- Terrorist attacks? nope not so far.

So can anyone give me a reason how the market will flush down the toilet instead of a slow rolling correction?
 
magicz said:
Things to ponder that can break the US market.
- Subprime mess? nope not relevant
- Illogical valuation? nope
- Fraud? nope
- Student loans? probably not
- Oil price? nope not so far
- CDO? nope
- FED's balance sheet? nope(yellen said no selling).
- Auto loans? nope too small on the bank balance sheet.
- Weak world macro? nope not so far.
- Terrorist attacks? nope not so far.

So can anyone give me a reason how the market will flush down the toilet instead of a slow rolling correction?
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Kind of the definition of a black swan is that you didn't see it coming right? Maybe it's a flash crash that drives the market such that most margin accounts are at negative values, then they screw up the busted trade mechanism (which is neither well understood or robust) such that half the market that responded to the crash ends up with a loss equal to what they thought was a gain.....not sure it would play out exactly like that but those two things interacting could wreak havok seemingly out of nowhere.
 
XD. Did you profit from the ES drop today ?
No ... I am sure you'd be hammered by the black swan.
Be careful bro'. Black Swan aren't for faint heart in needs.
If you didn't benefit from the ES drop ...
You won't profit from swan...

Usually they come when nobody's asking for them.
So first. Begin to buy. Then the swan will come.

;)
 
K-Pia said:
XD. Did you profit from the ES drop today ?
No ... I am sure you'd be hammered by the black swan.
Be careful bro'. Black Swan aren't for faint heart in needs.
If you didn't benefit from the ES drop ...
You won't profit from swan...
More...
I don't think most of us would call a sub 1% fall in ES a "black swan"
 
K-Pia said:
Did I call it a Swan ? No.
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Pretty sure you equated today's drop of less than 1% with the ability to profit from a black swan. If you want to argue semantics knock yourself out, but the rest of us probably agree that being able to profit from a 1% drop is so unrelated to being able to profit from a black swan that it's nonsense to equate the two, as you quite clearly did.
 
Sig said:
Pretty sure you equated today's drop of less than 1% with the ability to profit from a black swan. If you want to argue semantics knock yourself out, but the rest of us probably agree that being able to profit from a 1% drop is so unrelated to being able to profit from a black swan that it's nonsense to equate the two, as you quite clearly did.
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Yes it's semantics.
As you said a drop is a drop.
But a 1% drop ain't a black swan.
THAT IS WHAT I HAVE NOT SAID !

If you can't profit from a drop.
Then you won't profit from a drop.
It's clear ? Nope ?! Sounds crystal clear.
THAT IS WHAT I HAVE SAID !

I am sure if I ask taleb,
He is in the green today.
Okay ? That's what it takes.
To be ... Or not to be .. long puts.
You didn't profit ? You ain't long puts !
So why will you be when the sky is blue ?!
Or how would you be suddenly profiting ?!
Today could have been a black swan !
But you didn't profit cause it wasn't.
Oh hands down. All my pardons.

Don't tell the rest of you will be ready,
Or even profit from the black swan.
Hahahahaha. The rest of you.
We're talking black swan !
XD thanks for the laugh.
 
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K-Pia said:
XD. Did you profit from the ES drop today ?
No ... I am sure you'd be hammered by the black swan.
Be careful bro'. Black Swan aren't for faint heart in needs.
If you didn't benefit from the ES drop ...
You won't profit from swan...

Usually they come when nobody's asking for them.
So first. Begin to buy. Then the swan will come.

;)
More...
was flat in the morning except for a small position in GLD...but did caught the rebound for a 4 point on the spy tho.
 
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