In Like Flint

[Jayford]

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

Thanks for the links.

Normally Z I would agree with you about Richardson. This time though I see the Prez coming out of the Senate. Weirdly I think America wants an insider who is uber legislator and equipped with a bipartisan pedigree. I haven't seen a single poll but my preliminary feel tells me it will be McCain vs. Gore.

Possibly, except Gore isn't going to run. Couldn't raise the money even if he did a complete 180 and reversed his often stated claim that he won't run. He could use his own funds though. Most of the party heavy weights put him in the Kerry category. Toast on the Presidential level. Yes, he won the popular vote vs Bush, but then went way out to left field.

I don't see McCain getting nominated unless the Iraq situation dramatically improves. He supports Bush's moves too much, and isn't going to get much help from the religious right. Rudy is too far left. I believe its Romney as long as people can get over the fact that he is Mormon. He has one hell of a resume. He is sort of a central right candidate as well. Rom only has 6% now, but that is just cause hardly anyone knows him. Once the primaries swing around, I think he skyrockets (due to the probs of the other contenders mainly). Personally, I prefer McCain. He shoots from the hip. No bullshit. Hard core about deep sixing pork also.

I see Hill vs Romney, with Rom winning due to the fact that 47% of the population won't vote for Hillary under any circumstances (got this number out of last week's Newsweek). They love her in the Democratic Party, and despise her out of it.

In the case of an Edwards vs Romney race, I could see the Dems winning.

 

[Pa(b)st Prime]

Quote from Jayford:

Possibly, except Gore isn't going to run. Couldn't raise the money even if he did a complete 180 and reversed his often stated claim that he won't run. He could use his own funds though. Most of the party heavy weights put him in the Kerry category. Toast on the Presidential level. Yes, he won the popular vote vs Bush, but then went way out to left field.

I don't see McCain getting nominated unless the Iraq situation dramatically improves. He supports Bush's moves too much, and isn't going to get much help from the religious right. Rudy is too far left. I believe its Romney as long as people can get over the fact that he is Mormon. He has one hell of a resume. He is sort of a central right candidate as well. Rom only has 6% now, but that is just cause hardly anyone knows him. Once the primaries swing around, I think he skyrockets (due to the probs of the other contenders mainly). Personally, I prefer McCain. He shoots from the hip. No bullshit. Hard core about deep sixing pork also.

I see Hill vs Romney, with Rom winning due to the fact that 47% of the population won't vote for Hillary under any circumstances (got this number out of last week's Newsweek). They love her in the Democratic Party, and despise her out of it.

In the case of an Edwards vs Romney race, I could see the Dems winning.

I see it McCain-Gore for two reasons. At least as of now. I'm still sticking with the Gore-Nixon anthology until I'm forced out of the trade. I do strongly agree with you that Gore's political fortunes have turned for the worse. In '68 Nixon had a shoe-in with Romney's dad, (out after the "brainwashed" remark), Rockefeller and Reagan who also considered running. The road is certainly not paved in such manner for Gore. Don't forget though that Gore has worked his butt off for Demo Congressional candidates around the country. Quite a few organizations owe him. That kind of stuff is king in primaries.

In the GOP I see McCain as a lock. Running away. Positive name ID and his support of the war is nullified by two facts. One, his antagonistic relationship with Bush and his independent streak absolve him from appearing to be a partisan lackey for the WH. Secondly American's will give primo benefit to the foreign policy inclinations of a war hero. McCain is everything Kerry's not and American's may feel they owe one to a Nam vet. I'm much further to the right of McCain on social issues, differ with him on Iraq and I think McCain/Feingold is one of the worst set of laws in history yet I believe he's easily the most electable Republican so I'd support him.

 

[sulong]

Quote from Jayford:



I see Hill vs Romney, with Rom winning due to the fact that 47% of the population won't vote for Hillary under any circumstances (got this number out of last week's Newsweek). They love her in the Democratic Party, and despise her out of it.

In the case of an Edwards vs Romney race, I could see the Dems winning.

No chance rom gets nominated.

Way, way too much dirt associated with Mormonism. Internal back biting, external disgust, and just plain ol intolerance.

We let them have a state, but thats proved to be monumental mistake. (religiously speaking )

 

[AAAintheBeltway]

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

I see it McCain-Gore for two reasons. At least as of now. I'm still sticking with the Gore-Nixon anthology until I'm forced out of the trade. I do strongly agree with you that Gore's political fortunes have turned for the worse. In '68 Nixon had a shoe-in with Romney's dad, (out after the "brainwashed" remark), Rockefeller and Reagan who also considered running. The road is certainly not paved in such manner for Gore. Don't forget though that Gore has worked his butt off for Demo Congressional candidates around the country. Quite a few organizations owe him. That kind of stuff is king in primaries.

In the GOP I see McCain as a lock. Running away. Positive name ID and his support of the war is nullified by two facts. One, his antagonistic relationship with Bush and his independent streak absolve him from appearing to be a partisan lackey for the WH. Secondly American's will give primo benefit to the foreign policy inclinations of a war hero. McCain is everything Kerry's not and American's may feel they owe one to a Nam vet. I'm much further to the right of McCain on social issues, differ with him on Iraq and I think McCain/Feingold is one of the worst set of laws in history yet I believe he's easily the most electable Republican so I'd support him.

I see McCain as the latest embodiment of the Bob Dole syndrome. Republican regulars instinctively go with the leading Establishment cnadidate who is also liked by the mainstream media. The Big Business Republicans rely on consultants and K Street lobbyists to tell them where to put their money, and these guys are all for McCain.

 

[BSAM]

Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

I see McCain as the latest embodiment of the Bob Dole syndrome. Republican regulars instinctively go with the leading Establishment cnadidate who is also liked by the mainstream media. The Big Business Republicans rely on consultants and K Street lobbyists to tell them where to put their money, and these guys are all for McCain.

Exactly.

After Hillary gets the nomination, if she picks Obama for VP, it's game over. Only Ronald Reagan could knock that down.

There's a lot of folks in denial here.

Man, I'd love to be wrong about this, but seems pretty clear. Remember, and I believe this is a very key point, who Hillary is married to.

 

[ZZZzzzzzzz]

If Billary gets the nod, I think the best choice would be Richardson from New Mexico. His mother is Mexican, he is from the southwest, and the African American vote is likely already wrapped up with Billary. He is an easy going fellow, and this would help soften up the edges of Billary.

Kerry/Edwards didn't do as well with the Hispanic vote as Billary/Richardson would, and the Hispanic vote is increasing at a faster rate than the African American vote, so pandering to the Hispanic vote becomes more important, hágale entiende?

Richardson, IMO, would draw in the most needed votes, and would play a lot less liberal than Obama.

I may be wrong, but I just don't see America selecting a woman for president, with an African American liberal a heartbeat away from the presidency.

It is not the liberal vote that Billary needs anyway, it is the moderate vote. This is why she has been positioning herself toward the center in his comments and policy decisions.

One thing to remember, if things fall somewhat similar to the way they fell in 2004, all Billary would need to do is take all the states that Kerry won, and Ohio to win the presidency via the electoral vote...

Another possible wild card, depending on who the repubs select or who the front runner is, is a serious right wing candidate running as a 3rd party, who would take votes away from Republicans.

Many republican voters would feel disenfranchised with a candidate like McCain, so a 3rd party candidate is a great possibility right now, given the lack of solidarity in the republican camp compared to 2000.

A strong 3rd party candidate from the right would of course help Billary.

Quote from BSAM:

Exactly.

After Hillary gets the nomination, if she picks Obama for VP, it's game over. Only Ronald Reagan could knock that down.

There's a lot of folks in denial here.

Man, I'd love to be wrong about this, but seems pretty clear. Remember, and I believe this is a very key point, who Hillary is married to.

 

[BSAM]

Quote from ZZZzzzzzzz:

If Billary gets the nod, I think the best choice would be Richardson from New Mexico. His mother is Mexican, he is from the southwest, and the African American vote is likely already wrapped up with Billary. He is an easy going fellow, and this would help soften up the edges of Billary......

What you are saying here does indeed make a lot of sense. I think with either choice (Obama or Richardson), Hillary becomes the president. Gonna be interesting.

 

[AAAintheBeltway]

Quote from BSAM:

Exactly.

After Hillary gets the nomination, if she picks Obama for VP, it's game over. Only Ronald Reagan could knock that down.

There's a lot of folks in denial here.

Man, I'd love to be wrong about this, but seems pretty clear. Remember, and I believe this is a very key point, who Hillary is married to.

I think we still have to see how Hillary plays on a national stage. The media made her a Senator, but they have a new flavor of the month. Hillary may be the frontrunner, but she faces a formidable challenge. She still registers huge unlikeable numbers in polls, she is not a good speaker, in fact it is excrucriating to have to listen to her, and she comes across as cold and calculating. A good percentage of the population, particularly in democrat primaries, will vote for the person who is perceived to be the biggest celebrity. This worked in Hillary's favor in the past, but now she is old news and there is a new rock star in town.

 

[indahook]

Its "in like Flynn" As in Errol Flynns legendary womanizing capabilities...FYI.

Just say no to the Bush/Clinton oligarchy in 2008.

 

[ZZZzzzzzzz]

You are a right wing republican, you are not going to find much to like about any dem candidate, especially a Clinton...and I don't think you really understand or know the democratic base as much as you think. Constant reading of Coulter and mind numbing Rush doesn't broaden your understand of dem party. Your ilk always paints dems far to the left, when in reality they are much more to the center than the Fox News and assorted right wing talking heads say. Sure, there is a fringe element in the dem party, but there is also an equal fringe element in the repub party, and with a wide open race there, you guys are ripe for a 3 party candidate who will be populist regarding the border, and social issues.

Sorry, but your extreme partisanship really invalidates you from much real analysis of the election process for dems.

Bush registered very unlikeable numbers in the polls in 2004, but he still won.

Billary is the front runner, theirs to lose, and they are going to have to screw up badly to lose. That fat fuck Morris thinks he is going to come out with a documentary, but it is meaningless, as he has put himself in league with embittered Clinton haters and right wingers since his dismissal.

Unknowns like Obama, or Dean in 2004 gain some initial surge, but the party actually wants to win the presidency this time, and will be looking for a more centrist candidate at this time. That rules out Obama, and Billary can walk both sides of the fence, and speak out of both sides of their mouth.

In addition, it really doesn't matter to Billary if they lose Iowa or small states, they have the money to stay in the race long term, where the big primaries with lots of delegate votes count.

Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

I think we still have to see how Hillary plays on a national stage. The media made her a Senator, but they have a new flavor of the month. Hillary may be the frontrunner, but she faces a formidable challenge. She still registers huge unlikeable numbers in polls, she is not a good speaker, in fact it is excrucriating to have to listen to her, and she comes across as cold and calculating. A good percentage of the population, particularly in democrat primaries, will vote for the person who is perceived to be the biggest celebrity. This worked in Hillary's favor in the past, but now she is old news and there is a new rock star in town.