Improving Trading Skills

FYB I do not reread or look at or review anything I type. I do hunt and peck and only glance at the screen. I have only three fingers that have any range of motion and cannot hold a golf club nor handle lines on sailboats any longer. Gliding is different and I will probably always be able to think up something that works. For EMT and cert stuff I have workable altrenatives too. So you can forget the bullshit you hype on my posts; they contain substantive content resptricted to what makes money.

Re: sematics, faking prints, etc that game just reflects on the doers as far as I am concert. continuing bullshit on this is a waste of your time also.

RE: using what I do I read your posts from the viewpoint of transference og sunstantive content regarding Knowledge, skills and experience. I collect about 12 sets of posts on individuals that I track. You are not one of them because there is little trading content and 90% or more noise. That is not going to change for a variety of serious reasons.

My parsing below is selective and not comprehensive as you will see. I am only racheting down a coupl of levels of dtailt to to let you know that there is a lot more to trading than you are interested in. When a person knows the details it makes almost all trading appear to be done in slow motion. Presntly you are so foar behind the curve of real time trading that you have to "build" stuff instead of playing real time.


Quote from Albert Cibiades:

Grob109, now we are on epistemological grounds. It is truly amazing that you can get inside my head and read my mind at such a remove.

For you it is amazing; for me it is just automatic runon copy produced as rapidly as I can go over the keyboard.

In rebuttal of your cogently argued post, which I very much enjoyed reading, let us consider an example where you make a prediction. It is the session opening. You have previously drawn multiple longer term (than intraday) trend lines suggesting S and R. You have seen synchronization occur. You see ES lead $INDU. You see price surge with supporting volume.

There are no correct accurate nor precise comments in the above block. Refer to the 515 page thread on beginner ES trading.

Perhaps I am wrong on the details, but you see a series of events build which lead you to believe that a rocket has begun and you enter.

Markets open. I use a chart of items that I fill in to prepare for the open. Refer to pal talk recordings and transcripts. refer to the MSN site for the chart both empty and completed to see what the scope and bounds are and what content is expected.

There is no prediction surrounding the open. The operating point is simply determind. Someone posted a beginner drill for the floor somewhere. wlak on to the floor enter and take a loss on exit. This is to learn that arbitrary actions can take you into the market. It is to learn that when you are in the market you do your best. It is to learn that one of the eventualities in the use of in-the-market-time is a loss. It is to learn that the person opposite you and in the market has just made a profit collectively speaking. It is to learn that you have to be in the market to make money. The last line is the fundamental truth learned by the mind and that truth is universal.

SOOOOO the morning begins with preparation daily and without fail. A two inch binder for the month is being filled with pages. as the NYSE market opens you have been watch an already open market and you are cognisent of all the boundaries of volume and price for the day on a very comprehensive set up that you are sweeping on three levels of detail. REfer to MSN site for all details on theset up, the sweep procedure and the four activities of trading : monitoring, analysis, decision making and timely actions.

So far what you typed above is simple a fart that is superficial and misguided and shows below average understanding of this you have read, backtested with a failing resurlt and have written about in this forum for years. You do not get it understand it or have the ability to use it with any utility whatsoever. That is why I do not track you.
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In essence, for your first trade of the day, you have predicted that something will happen. And you believe that your predictions have a reasonable profit expectation, or you would not have developed and be using that set of rules.

this is pure distilled bullshit

To understand how the body of what I BE DO HAVE is difficult. It is a mind game. I say "It is a mind game" because of the BE DO HAVE requirement that applies to all approaches to anything.

I do not predict anything whatsoever. I monitor, analyze, make decisions and make timely decisions. Suppose I type a dicertation on each of these yet one more time. what you would read is a deep and cogent commentary on what I have siad for just under 50 years. what does something like that represent. It represents going through a long enduring iterative refinement process with one goal: gaining the truth of the matter. there are such processes going on everywhere in any number of diverse applications. It is a profound way to get the job done. It comes, at some point, to a sports memory activity in real time. there are not many people in the world who do things this way. Fewer share the process of how to get there. Only a few know to resist tying up the whole nine yards in a bundle and putting a robbon on it. What I know is that getting there is a process. it is not a one page summary of a method of trading. The process occurs exactly as do the long term (30000 year) specific quests that are currently handed down to those that "seek". For trading I have been seeking for nearly 50 years and I seek in a manner that is durable and proven. You do not and you turn out to be a bullshitter as seen in your paragraph just above.

I use an approach: moniotring, analysis, decision making and taking timely action all centered around seamless continuous trading besd upon the idea that you have to be in the market to make money. That sentence and all the details on six deferentiating levels of dtail in x, y, and z and A, B and C cover the bases. there is no content on anything related to predicitng in any location whatsoever. If a person has something about prediction in his approach it sooner ot later will be replaced because a determination will be made that it is not necessary.

Why? The answer lies within the context of the power of what replaces prediction. Grossly as a blanket would, SCT ovrlays the operation of the makrket. At detailed locations where you may institute prediction, it is simply because you have not as yet ome across the ability to think through an alternative that replaces prediction. Take the non list that 71 did not come up with when he asked me to critique him. Had he done any work to get the answers he deeply needs, he would have processed where he was in the form of a list. Anywhere the need for prediction would have come up, it would have been stricken and a replacement simply slotted in. thta would have been done by a "process". Occassionally I suggest drills as a redundnat way to shift untruths in the mind to places where they are isolated and disconnected for porcesses that need to be developed and reinforced. All of prediction go thata way finally as a person gains strength through the powerful alternatives that render prediction useless.

since trading is not a mental challenge compared to anyones potential as demonstrated by how they conduct complex caring relationships, achieving a less complex and caring relationship with the market is not a long term and unapproachable challenge. it is a run of the mill effort and is only hanicapped because there is a money concern initially. this concern fucks everyone almost blind. i simply erase it by always taking all initial capital out of the market once and for all at the earliest opportunity. That is that. A person only trades on eraned profits and compounds those seamlessly and continuously.

you do not do that you screw around bullshitting yourself by prediciting and you are uneducatable by this time in your life. It is very very inexpensive to learn from what I write. There is a very low price to pay to have to do a PROCESS to get to BE DO HAVE. Why does 71 think he just needs to go through a HAVING by reading something.

A person has to get to a point where he is oriented and he recognizes he has no knowledge, no skills and no experience. BUt at that point he BE a trader. He then DO's. This means he goes through a process of filling up what he BE by spending time in acquisition for performing the BE effectively and efficiently.

your alternative is bullshiting, maening writing down all sorts of crap and baiting in every concievable way you can to avoid the alternative mentioned above.

4 out of five people think I am full of shit. and what I post is bullshit. you are one of them. It is much too expensive for you to consider what I post that costs others nothing to make use of. Tradgic.

I am willing to concede that by my definition of prediction not all of your trading actions are predictive. But to give other predictive examples, FTT's and BO's are, as are DOM-based actions.

The above paragraph issimply a comment based upon lack of understanding on your part. because you do not have any skills in reasoning on market operations (caused primarily by your quest to bactest for anomolies that you feel, for a time, will give you a "competitive" edge).

you have not come to the place in understanding that the is no competition in the market place for making money. Making money is an extraction process. the tests used to determene performance are efectiveness and efficiency. It is prima facia, that trading anomolies is inefficient and ineffective. the same test yields that "edge trading is bullshit as well. In the limit, because you have to be in the market to make the money that the market proffers, you are simply in all the time and periodically you lock in profits at the most effectivere time and dictated TO YOU by the market's signals TO YOU. you are given the signals and you do accordingly. The Boolean expression for the market operation absolutely cioncides with these two trader functions. A trader is AT ONE with the market. This synergism is a consequence of a process of iterative refinement whare the Person who BE's (has an open minded orientation to be a trader of highest effectiveness and efficiency) and who continually strives (DO's) to use his time to gain experience that is folded into his growing knowledge which all results in excellent operational usable skills. He the HAS it to use seamlessly and continually for the purpose of making money.

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In your description of the narrowing of possibilities, I see a prediction which you view as a near certainty.

luckily, I do not have your viewpoint nor vantagepoint. You are infused with the prediction stuff. Too bad. Some people in ET have addressed this stuff as how some people "have to be right" instead of "knowing what is going on". There is not a choice in this. A person has to know what is going on at all times and also know, by a defined plan statement, know to sideline when he does not knw what is going on. This is a coarse measure of the market that is always going on. The market "tells" you what is going on and the "market is always right" are two truths about the symbosis of the trader and the market.

Prediction precludes listening to the maket continually. Prediction is a switch, that once flipped, fucks up all monitoring from that point on with respect to being "told" what the market is saying and that "the market is always right". It is an irrational thing that leads the maths related to stuff like "drawdons" and mathematical expectation and R/R ratios etc. the range of all these constructs leads to SCT being "unbelievable".

To put a blanket over all this unecessary stuff, what is used is a set up and a "continuous" four part process( which has six levels of depth of understanding (that is automatic as in a person caring relationship)) on the part of the trader that runs in parallel with the market in real time.

The prediction alternative, as ET threads continually indicate is: A repeated: "Predict first" "Am I right? Am I right? Am I right? What went wrong? What went wrong? What should I do? What should I do?

And kindly do not presume that my own trading decisions have odds as poor as 1 in 3. I build up near certainty based on a set of market dynamics based rules. Some of those rules involve volume, but not in the simplistic binary way formulated by your P/V rules.

"build".........changing the odds with data. Why bother. Use market trading tools and related skills instead and always be in the makret.

Rules. The market rules The market is always right is a very high probability type of truth. The market is always NOW and is always "built", completely and totally. You can, as an alternative partner with the market that always has the job you improperly usurp form the market done. share responsibilites properly instead: monitor (sensory), analyze (compare with truths completely all abot the condition, circumstance and situation);p make decisions (share repnsibilities for making money); and act in a timely manner (hold over and voer in the face of no signals, reverse only when porfits need to be locked in when the market operating point changes and a new series of profits are to be taken)

As to reversing, there are times during the day when one should best simply stand aside,

Risk varies throughout the day. A person has a skill level that dictates his risk. Market risk is defined by the skill level of the trader. Do not trade when the market is offering you money that is beyond your skill level to acquire it. The market is there, as always, and it continues to oppfer money to a person on many fractals and in two dirctions (See a lot of threads on this as future possibilities for you to learn about). when skiils and running multiple indepenant accounts a person is generally in the market with a % of capital that corresponds to the opportunities being presented.

where for a matter of hours it may not be clear what the new direction will be.

Obviously direction of the market is not a major criteria to "look" for. If a person is monitoring the market is talking to him all the time. the most important monitoring going on is the annotation of volume and price boundaries. Why? well because most all of the decisions made are to "hold" as a consequence of volume being orderly and price operating within the boundaries. Wake up calls and going from simple coarse sweeps occur when you are requested by the market to do medium sweeps and then fine sweeps to precisely take the last profits of the holding period. This is not a complex "gating of data" concept. It is te routine o the trader/market pertnership.

Beginners do one hting. Intermediates do more. Experts monitor, analyze, make decisions and act in timely manners all during the time the market is open.

Annotations on the charts are the same for all. It gets quite clear when there is no trading range available. Lateral direction is a period of time when the money velocity of extration is fairly constant and holds and reversals run along like a grandfather clock. A couple of wash trades let you know you can't eak any more out of that trading fractal normal money making velocity.


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If you are in a position at such times, the risk continues to grow that you have taken a position with the masses, and that you will be thwarted.

color=blue]masses. SCT trading is "pushed" by othr participants, mostly smart money. Think about your "building" concept in the face of your "risk growing" myth.

What does go on in the minds of predictors as time passes?

Personally, I see alternative paths being blocked continually as time passes. I know it passes you by as a possibility.

Suffice to say, that if one were to use gaming theory to play four levels down in detail , there are fewr and fwer unknowns. fotunately the sweeping strategy keeps a person on a CPM that requires least effort to totally listen to the market's dictates.

being twarted in SCT is when the boundaries of the variables only allow a "wash" trade. I know this is surprising to most that when a person is holding and then optimizing the collection of profits to enter a new hold period, the end point of activity in trading is to have to wash after a hold period and sideline when volume is dictating that the market has "centered". bingo.[/color]

As to rationality, my belief based on intraday statistical analyses is that limit order traders trade rationally, whereas market order traders do not. Therefore the ability to think both ways has value in market order trading like we both do. The ability to be cooly irrational is in my opinion essential. I have formed the belief in intraday trading based on the correlation between price behavior and my own gut reactions that the irrationality of the crowd has been codified and forms part of the basis of automated trading. In particular, I believe that extreme paranoia also has its uses for private traders.

anomoly land. I deal in the trader/market partnership and iteratively refining toward effectiveness and efficiency. So I am not going to respond to you any more.

Finally, if I recall correctly, you have not been in business per se for nearly 50 years.

Trading since 1957. Before that I just had jobs that allowed me to save for four years for college and work for 5 1/2 years to pay for all but 300 bucks (a student loan for one term) of two degrees of education.

Modern business, far from being ultra-logical, is statistically based. Its actions are predictive, based on statistical control methods.

I don't know much about this. I only work the business turf of changing how businesses operate. I've never run into a management group in a business that operates in that manner. The model I follow is:

1. Design a paradigm

2. set up, own control of, and operate a model C corp under contract with a corporation that has a product that fits the paradigm. Have a separate override stream the the paradigm originator. Have cost covering incentives to minimize operating costs and put additional profit ratio into override.

3. replicate 2's as measles in the product market.


4. Merge all 3's into a publically traded corp by a TFSE. Use orverride as a sweetener (a check into PTC at no expense to PTC.


5. grow P/E ratio of PTC by adding growth to 3's by market penetration. A normal P/E of 15 goes to 60 over about 10 quarters as a consequence of the increasing override hitting the mailbox of the PTC.


6. Use the PTC stock acquired in 4 as collateral for research to create paradigms in other problem oriented fields.

See attached table of current activities.

So we are polar opposites. And yes, there were five usages of the word "not" in this post. But at least the spelling is correct. Always a pleasure, Al.

LOL....[/B][/QUOTE]
 
Quote from easyrider:

Some interesting posts. Jack I am curious how you traded the open yesterday(7/21). Bar 4 was an inside bar in the middle of a high volatility stall with a fbo on bar 7 and finally a bo on bar 10. If you entered before bar 10 would you explain where and why.
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I didn't trade or mentor yesterday. It was staff and gopher day for my boss Liz. We were suddenly imposed upon by one of our product providers who decided to expand their broker strategies.

Bar 4 was a pause (inside bar) that set up an enter in bar 5.

Getting to bar 9 was just using the envelop to get the impending move when the market started the day.

To run 20 actions a day to pick off what is offered requires going through grooving into the day with little to show initially sometimes.

It is definitely summer times now. Having a situation where just a couple of bars at a time represent what is going on per profit taking is a mess first of all. But this kind of practice is of value.

The value is that you are running the mind through short shots of sequences that play as usual. Getting in after an inside bar. Learning to start the day. Dealing with FBO (learning handling your hold a short time after the entry) Better than a wash, only, but staying in the market

Who wants to wait almost an hour to begin to bank money? No one.

A thread on handling summer days where the people who are activily trading are meandering all over the place is a dull but useful dialogue.

It is a drag when the sweeping is giving you signals to go down to fine all of the time. It is always true that when you get there it is a different situation each time you wind up there. The boundaries dictate that not much is available and the volume shows that traders are not in any kind of unison (no gaussians (A volume shape that is playing out)).

So lets say you see this kind of day before you 30 times. you go along and do the trades and do not make any money to speak of. What you do get is to be able to go through the process, though and get to trade effectively all the time.

There is little efficiency in getting money out of the market; on the other hand, you can handle it effectively for what it is.

It is very different to have traded than to have sat on the sidlines and say" I'mglad I wan't wasting my time being in the market today".

the difference is the experience gained to handle the dictates of the market. the market dictates and we bring to bear our skills and the skills then improve almost imperceptably.

Look at your description. You characterize in a succinct direct manner. It is like all the indicators are mush because of how the data points impinge, on the other hand you are monitoring, .....then characterizing. In between you were doing the drill where no money making was available. Were it there to make, you would be making it.
 
Quote from FredBloggs:

i guess were talking semantics here!!
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Great. Thanks Fred. I'm glad we all agree. (Well, all but one of us.) Why would a person ever put on a trade if he wasn't "predicting" that he could make some dough by doing so?:confused:
 
Jack,

I find it hard to follow your train of thought at times. Here I'll try to restate your exchange with Albert Cibiades. Please correct me if wrong.

You don't like the word "predict" because it implies "getting ahead of the market", "taking money from the market", in any case DO something to the market. Too much action orientation to sense the subtle currents in the market.

The approach your advocate is more of the Eastern philosophical approach, as in, be one with the market, sense what it's doing, then take action to follow the market, and finally iteratively refine your actions based on the market's feedback. Emphasis is on BE and KNOW long before the DO, right?
 
Quote from BSAM:

Great. Why would a person ever put on a trade if he wasn't "predicting" that he could make some dough by doing so?:confused:
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Dont you think it is quite possible to be "pulled" into the market? When you bracket a trade you are not predicting. Certain conditions can also "pull" you into the market when they occur without any prediction involved.

p.s. Thanks Jack for the reply above.
 
Quote from easyrider:

Dont you think it is quite possible to be "pulled" into the market?When you bracket a trade you are not predicting. Certain conditions can also "pull" you into the market when they occur without any prediction involved.

p.s. Thanks Jack for the reply above.
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I'm not sure what you are saying. But, I do know that when I put on a trade, I enter with the "prediction" that I'm going to make some money.

It's not confusing or complicated. Sometimes a person "predicts" correctly. Sometimes he doesn't.
 
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