Impression of US Economy in 2008

What is the most likely scenero for 2008?

  • The US will surely enter a moderate recession.

    Votes: 15 14.6%

  • There will be a global recession led by the US.

    Votes: 26 25.2%

  • The worst is over. No recession and the US and global markets will continue a bull run led by China

    Votes: 12 11.7%

  • There will be a US depression similar to 1929 in the United States.

    Votes: 9 8.7%

  • There will be a recession or depression in the US but not globally. US boycoted by EU and Asia.

    Votes: 6 5.8%

  • There will be a global recession but the US will be in a bull market with fancy foot work.

    Votes: 1 1.0%

  • There will be no recession but the markets will see alot of volatility and sideways action.

    Votes: 22 21.4%

  • There will be a global depression and perhaps the breakout of WWIII.

    Votes: 12 11.7%
  • Total voters
    103
Quote from QQQShort:

As one measure of economic cycles, S&P 500 earnings peaked mid-year 2000. The next peak could possibly appear in 2008, assuming an 8-year cycle. Along those lines, U.S. market performance in 2000 (an election year) raises some doubt about bullish certainty next year.
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2000 was an anomaly, Prez-cycle year-wise. I was out until midyear, and then I bought only gold and gold-related stuff. The recovery was very old by then.
The bubble was so blindingly zany only a fool or a newbie (of that vintage, of course) couldn't see what was coming. And the Fed was tightening, their last rise coming in the Spring of that year.
Going into '08, by contrast, you have universal gloom and Chicken Little sentiment everywhere you look. The recovery is a bit old, at about seven years, but that still leaves anywhere from one to three years more, given past history since 1981. The Fed, meantime, is busy loosening. The two situations couldn't be more different.
 
Quote from trefoil:

The Fed, meantime, is busy loosening. The two situations couldn't be more different.
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The Fed began loosening January 2001, yet the S&P 500 dropped 40% from that time. And, for what it's worth, S&P 500 earnings are currently declining, but too early to know whether that's a blip or a trend.
 
Top voter selection:
(global recession vs volatile markets) 23 to 17

27.71% (23 votes) There will be a global recession led by the US.
20.48% (17 votes) There will be no recession but the markets will see alot of volatility and sideways action.
 
Quote from QQQShort:

The Fed began loosening January 2001, yet the S&P 500 dropped 40% from that time. And, for what it's worth, S&P 500 earnings are currently declining, but too early to know whether that's a blip or a trend.
More...

...and everyone keeps citing that, and 1 out of every 5 chose economic Armaggedon in this survey.
I'm very comfortable being a bull about next year.
 
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