Impression of US Economy in 2008

What is the most likely scenero for 2008?

  • The US will surely enter a moderate recession.

    Votes: 15 14.6%

  • There will be a global recession led by the US.

    Votes: 26 25.2%

  • The worst is over. No recession and the US and global markets will continue a bull run led by China

    Votes: 12 11.7%

  • There will be a US depression similar to 1929 in the United States.

    Votes: 9 8.7%

  • There will be a recession or depression in the US but not globally. US boycoted by EU and Asia.

    Votes: 6 5.8%

  • There will be a global recession but the US will be in a bull market with fancy foot work.

    Votes: 1 1.0%

  • There will be no recession but the markets will see alot of volatility and sideways action.

    Votes: 22 21.4%

  • There will be a global depression and perhaps the breakout of WWIII.

    Votes: 12 11.7%
  • Total voters
    103
I'll go against the crowd and be moderately bullish. The subprime mess has been mostly priced into the financials; the rate cuts and the Abu Dhabi-Citi deal show that there is federal and international interest in preventing a market collapse.

Interest rates are falling and it's making stocks look cheap. The Dow's forward P/E is about 14, which is undervalued with the 10-yr bond at 4%. Conditions are ripe for a rally -- Dow 15K -- precisely because no one believes it's possible.
 
What is the most likely scenerio for 2008? vote status:

Still neck and neck for the primary selections (global recession vs no recession/volatile markets):

<b>25.00% (16 votes)</b> There will be a <b>global recession</b> led by the US
<b>21.88% (14 votes)</b> There will be <b>no recession</b> but the markets will see alot of volatility and sideways action.

The secondary selections are also neck and neck (moderate recession vs global bull continuation lead by China expansion)

<b>14.06% (9 votes)</b> The US will surely enter a <b>moderate recession</b>.
<b>12.50% (8 votes)</b> The worst is over. No recession and the <b>US and global markets will continue a bull</b> run led by China.

Very, very close!

Please make your vote now. Make the most likely choice you would make even if there's not an exact match. You can express you opinion in detail in a post if you would like to make clear what your choice is based on.
 
25.35% <b>(18 votes)</b> There will be a global recession led by the US
22.54% <b>(16 votes)</b> There will be no recession but the markets will see alot of volatility and sideways action.

Top 2 choices still neck and neck. The volatility/no recession choice evened up for the first time with global recession and was 16/16 at one point. However 2 late votes came in pushing it to a 2 vote lead which has been the average lead.
 
December may end 2007 with positive gains on the year despite crude oil nearly reaching 100 and the credit market blowing up.
 
Since Reagan and Thatcher reintroduced the US and the UK to the markets, the cycles have gotten much longer and much more stable.
This is a typical midcourse correction in what by now is a fairly typical 8 to 10 year economic cycle.
Shorter term, the wisdom of Ed Hart holds: the surest economic cycle, in the US anyway, is the Presidential election cycle, which of course is a four-year cycle.
Next year will be a good year. Bush and Bernanke will team up to make it so. It's the closest thing there is to money in the bank, when it comes to the markets.
 
Quote from trefoil:

This is a typical midcourse correction in what by now is a fairly typical 8 to 10 year economic cycle.

Shorter term, the wisdom of Ed Hart holds: the surest economic cycle, in the US anyway, is the Presidential election cycle, which of course is a four-year cycle.
Next year will be a good year. Bush and Bernanke will team up to make it so. It's the closest thing there is to money in the bank, when it comes to the markets.
More...
As one measure of economic cycles, S&P 500 earnings peaked mid-year 2000. The next peak could possibly appear in 2008, assuming an 8-year cycle. Along those lines, U.S. market performance in 2000 (an election year) raises some doubt about bullish certainty next year.
 
HA..Iran all of a sudden off the map...

I guess somebody from Goldman finally got 20 minutes with GW and told him to call off the dogs....

cant do subprime and Iran in '08...

too much money to be made off the next recession....
 
Quote from daddyeaux:

HA..Iran all of a sudden off the map...

I guess somebody from Goldman finally got 20 minutes with GW and told him to call off the dogs....

cant do subprime and Iran in '08...

too much money to be made off the next recession....
More...

You know, I no longer know whether it is just someone quoting different line for each new piece, or our CIA info is as accurate as school yard gossip.
 
the US needs a pretext to start withdrawal....

so, just change the landscape however you want it....

war turns to peace with a mouse click.........

coincidence that oil cracked $10 a barrel last week??? well maybe...
 
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