I'm missing something here. Clearly there is enough empirical evidence to suggest that a sub-group of traders consistently achieve returns greater than accepted yardsticks or Bogies (be it beating an index or T-Bills, ect.).Whether anyone wants to deride Buffet or not, IMO his 45 year track record defies randomness.Of course many other traders and managers have also enjoyed stellar careers that demonstrate that there are some who can anticipate the revaluation of a particular market,whether it's a security, a barrel of Crude or a nation's currency.
If the thesis of this thread is "Can a Daily Bar Chart Predict the Future?", I would answer, perhaps randomly. However I would not make the argument that just because "chart reading" seems to generate random results (and I don't know that it does) that price changes themselves are random. What appears clear is that market's achieve a state of equilibrium and trade "randomly" so to speak around a band of participant defined "value." Then conditions either change suddenly(an earnings surprise, war, ect.) or some savvy traders envision that condition's could change and that proper R/R can be used to bet on the unforeseen.
It's doubtful that Buffet bought American Express forty years ago because a channel was penetrated or that Soros sold the Pound in 1992 off a double top. What is obvious is that both these trades were made with the correct reasoning that there was a mis-valuation available in the market and the opportunity was seized. Not much random about that decision making.
If the thesis of this thread is "Can a Daily Bar Chart Predict the Future?", I would answer, perhaps randomly. However I would not make the argument that just because "chart reading" seems to generate random results (and I don't know that it does) that price changes themselves are random. What appears clear is that market's achieve a state of equilibrium and trade "randomly" so to speak around a band of participant defined "value." Then conditions either change suddenly(an earnings surprise, war, ect.) or some savvy traders envision that condition's could change and that proper R/R can be used to bet on the unforeseen.
It's doubtful that Buffet bought American Express forty years ago because a channel was penetrated or that Soros sold the Pound in 1992 off a double top. What is obvious is that both these trades were made with the correct reasoning that there was a mis-valuation available in the market and the opportunity was seized. Not much random about that decision making.
lol