Important Period Now.

Hummmm. Not the reaction I was hoping for. Just got back to work after a rum punch & a saki and was expecting to be having more fun now.

15:26:58 Comment Resistance is futile! Indices back off SPX 1440 ,NDX 1800
15:24:10 Comment Rally extends & tests initial resistance at NDX 1800,SPX 1440
15:15:03 Comment Rally attempt extends.Resistance near NDX 1800 & SPX 1440 may be tested here
14:51:54 Comment Indices making another snapback attempt here
14:37:02 Comment Indices slice to more new session lows ,taking out double bottom support
14:34:43 Comment Indices tetering on the edge, pressing the lows..
14:23:27 Comment Indices bounce & attempt a snapback rally near earlier support lows
14:18:52 Comment Indices continue under pressure ,still pressing the lows
14:09:04 Comment NDX tags new session lows,SPX testing
14:06:17 Comment Fed minutes still project economic pickup later this year
14:04:58 Comment FOMC says data have cast doubt whether inflation on down path. Fed says labors markets remain 'relatively tight'. FOMC says investment surprisingly weak, important downside risk. Persistence of inflation at recent rates could eventually have adverse effect on economy
14:03:59 Comment FED MINUTES - FOMC AGREED 'FURTHER POLICY FIRMING' MIGHT BE NEEDED TO FOSTER LOWER U.S. INFLATION. DUE TO GROWTH, INFLATION UNCERTAINTIES, STATEMENT NO LONGER SOLELY CITES CHANCE OF MORE FIRMING
14:02:54 Comment Indices spike lower & take out mov avg support .Retesting LOWS!
 
The investment surprisingly weak is an interesting angle. General R&D spending has been reined in as more companies buy back shares... not good for future productivity...
 
well the booze of lunch has worn off and sure enough it's true- THIS IS IT. I was sort of guessing when I started this thread but this market is indeed about to make up it's mind. On the one hand we sort of lost the lower rates bail us out scenario. That hurts but it's a good thing it props up the dollar THAT chart is looking really bad. I'd rather have a strong currency here .

I think the market action over the next day or so is going to be key to determining the direction of the short-term trend. We'll soon see whether they hold and rebound or if this is the beginning of a new pullback period.

Which do you think it is?
 
I will say the small setback today will be expanding over the next day or two.

I hold cash only at this point,exited spx shorts at close.

Tomorrow is afterall another day and anything can happen.

One thing that concerns me about the Fomc is the way in which an easy interpretation can be assumed for a interest rate hike. Seems to me if a strategist wanted you looking one way it is because their plan is to do the opposite of the projected idea' he wants you to buy into.

So perhaps the bloodletting continues but if your short beware the Fed deek and potential interest rate hike becoming a cut in rates.

Good trading to all long and short.



:cool:
 
I am hoping tomorrow is a bit up. However, the 'trend' would indicate it would be down after today. So I don't know.

We had 8 days up... surely no one thought it was likely to keep going up? Where would the new buyers come from?

I don't believe we're beginning to really fall apart yet. I think it's coming, but not yet. I am very ambivalent about the market personally. I know from long experience however that the market tries very hard to do the opposite of what most people expect. So the real question is... what is it that most people expect?

When everyone was expecting an imminent crash... there was a lot of sidelined cash. This means there's money to enter the market. So... all it takes is a little bit of effort (you know that even little bids move the market if the volume is low) to make the market rise and force those people in.

Then it's time to sell. If you can scare retail investors out, then the market falls, and it's time to get in again. If things look so dire that the market is simply not going to respond, even to those little effort... then the smart money keeps the money out and lets it fall. Panic selling will produce the liquidity required.

So where are we now? If the market is trying to be unpredictable, tomorrow will be up. If the market wants a big dump to get more liquidity in, it will be down... and IF it is down, Friday is likely going to hurt too.

It's legalized gambling we do... what are the big players thinking? What would be their maximum gain? If everyone panics and sells, or if the market gets more complacent so the fall is even more dramatic when it comes?
 
We had 8 days up... surely no one thought it was likely to keep going up?

... Hels those were pretty punky up days- several were just a few points and don't think we can use the collective up days excuse here. I think some selling to pay for taxes is the culprit and only some really boffo earnings is going to distract everyone at this point.
 
Feeling topheavy Folks! Turnover rose across the board, causing both the S&P and Nasdaq to register bearish "distribution days." Total volume in the NYSE increased by 17%, while volume in the Nasdaq was 7% higher than the previous day's level. Negative market internals confirmed the losses. In both exchanges, declining volume exceeded advancing volume by a ratio of approximately 5 to 2. On April 9 This all started with churning action in the Nasdaq. . . the day was indicative of "churning" that occurs when an index registers higher volume without a significant advance or decline in price. When this happens at the top of a range, it is a warning signal that often precedes institutional selling a day or two later." As anticipated, heavy selling by mutual funds, hedge funds, and other institutional traders occurred yesterday, two days after Monday's "churning." As we have found out it only takes one day of institutional selling (aka "distribution day") to undo a week's worth of gains that occurred on declining volume." This is exactly what happened yesterday, except that "only" four days of gains in the S&P and Dow were wiped out. Obviously, yesterday's session was decisively bearish and reversed the short-term trends of the major market indexes from "up" to "down." However, the major indices have quite a bit of technical support below yesterday's closing prices that may make it difficult for them to go much lower without continued institutional selling pressure.
 
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