Quote from gifropan:
How vital is money management and position size.
Very vital. Every trader must answer three crucial questions.
⢠when to enter a trade
⢠how much to enter the trade (position sizing)
⢠when to exit the trade
It isn't a competition between these questions. All three must be addressed to have a successful trading system.
Quote from gifropan:
According to some pundits, money management alone can make the difference between sudcess and failure in trading.
It can but it usually doesn't. In order for MM to work, you must first have an edge. MM doesn't provide your edge, it has the potential to maximize it.
Here is the typical asymmetric coinflip example:
There is a 50% chance that you lose your bet ;
there is a 50% chance that you win twice your bet.
You have an edge aka positive expectation.
E = .5(+2) + .5(-1)= +0.5
If you decide to bet a constant absolute size, there's not much more to say. For each bet, you can expect to gain a return of 50% on average.
But if you decide to bet a constant fraction of your betting account, suddenly you have choices that make a real difference in how fast your account grows. The betting fraction that maximizes your rate of growth is generally referred to as your Kelly fraction.
For the given example, your Kelly fraction can be determined to be 0.25. That is, if you bet a constant 25% of your betting account in the asymmetric coinflip above, your betting account will grow the fastest.
Now, if you were to bet twice your Kelly fraction (50%), your growth rate drops to zero. Your edge hasn't disappeared, but the increased risk from going beyond your Kelly fraction has neutralized your advantage.
So position sizing is very important.
Quote from gifropan:
Isn't entry and correct trend identification as, or more, important.
They are all important. Like I said, this isn't a competition between different aspects of trading, what you want is a cooperation that maximizes your trading account.