IMF: China’s economy will surpass the U.S. in 2016

A

achilles28

This is it. The end of US hegemony. A dawning of a new global epoch. The next torch bearer is Communist China, who under Mao, killed 80 million people.

In my opinion, the baby boomers will go down in history as one of the most spoiled, ignorant, and decadent generations the world has ever known. Under their watch, corporations bribed politicians (they voted into office), to export jobs to shitholes all over the world - India, China, Mexico, Brazil - under "free trade" initiatives. The drooling trolls had no idea at the time, their willing delusion would parlay itself into their future national bankruptcy. To wit, our new global leaders will be mass murdering communist authoritarians. Thank you. Thank you very much, you fucking assholes.


According to the latest IMF official forecasts, China’s economy will surpass that of America in real terms in 2016 (PPP) — just five years from now.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/im...ut-to-end-2011-04-25?link=MW_home_latest_news
 
And now, a tribute to our new global Rulers...


China produces 8 times more steel than the US
Chinese IPO's raise twice as much capital as the US
China manufactures twice as many cars as the US
China high-tech exports are more than double the US
http://247wallst.com/2012/01/24/eight-industries-the-u-s-has-lost-to-china/3/

China produced 19.8 percent of all the goods consumed in the world during 2010. The United States only produced 19.4 percent.
http://economyincrisis.org/content/china-takes-crown

China poised to overtake US as biggest publisher of scientific papers
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2011/mar/28/china-us-publisher-scientific-papers

China to take top spot in patent filings
http://economyincrisis.org/content/america-falling-behind-innovation

U.S. Bridges, Roads Being Built by Chinese Firms
http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/video/us-...tab=9482931&section=4765066&playlist=14594944

China controls over 90 percent of the total global supply of rare earth elements.
http://endoftheamericandream.com/ar...are-earth-elements-is-so-incredibly-dangerous

China is now the number one supplier of components that are critical to the operation of U.S. defense systems.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...stan-bombs-to-china-s-neodymium-monopoly.html

Chinese duties triple the price of US-made cars. How's that for free trade?
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/15/b...riffs-on-some-vehicles-from-the-us.html?_r=2&

Chinese number#1 export to us? Computer equipment. US number#1 export to China? Scrap and trash.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/clyde-prestowitz/america-needs-a-new-globa_b_557131.html

Trade Deficit with China Costs US 500,000 jobs, per year
http://www.epi.org/page/-/pdf/ib283.pdf

Between December 2000 and December 2010, 38 percent of the manufacturing jobs in Ohio were lost, 42 percent of the manufacturing jobs in North Carolina were lost and 48 percent of the manufacturing jobs in Michigan were lost.
http://www.wnd.com/2011/02/267889/

The United States has lost a staggering 32 percent of its manufacturing jobs since the year 2000
http://prospect.org/article/plight-american-manufacturing

Overall, more than 56,000 manufacturing facilities in the United States have shut down since 2001.
http://www.politifact.com/ohio/stat...sutton-says-average-15-us-factories-close-ea/

15 US Factories close everyday
http://www.politifact.com/ohio/stat...sutton-says-average-15-us-factories-close-ea/

The United States lost more than 25% of its high-tech manufacturing jobs during the past decade as U.S.-based multinational companies placed a growing percentage of their research-and-development operations overseas, the National Science Board reported Tuesday.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...jobs-to-asia/2012/01/17/gIQA9P1S6P_story.html
 
It always puzzles me that Americans refer to the downfall of the USA as if its ascendency was meritorious in the first place.
 
It ain't over until it's over.. Hitler was backed into a corner and manipulated into a war? That is one take on history of the 20's/30's.. now China is in defense agreements with Iran and Iran with Syria.. that whole thing could blow up and change more than just a few borders... besides China's usefulness to the West will disappear as we replace all that work they do with 3D printers. In fact the usefulness of a "manufacturing sector" could entirely disappear worldwide. In light of that I'd say China could lighten up on this Pinky and the Brain thing they are doing where they take over the world.
 
achilles28,...and yet manufacturing output in the U.S. expanded during that time...and the the U.S. is still the largest manufacturing economy in the world.

I have a friend who runs a $100M manufacturing company with three regional factories...his total employment is 150 for all three. He has computerized wearhouse, where german robots retrieve product to ship, put it on palates, shrink wrap it and deliver it to the loading dock. There are only two employees in shipping...one guy runs the computer that tells the robot what to get, and the other guy runs the forklift; he takes the palates off the rollers and puts them on the truck. He has been increasing production and eliminating jobs for a decade.

I have another friend who is a manufacturing CEO, now with a cement company. He just returned from Germany looking at operations and relayed to me the German view that this is the time to take cheap capital and use it in capital investment that will have low operating costs and low employment costs going forward. That is how Germany can be such a manufacturing power house. Manufacturing, like farming before it, has been eliminating jobs for decades...even without China cheap dumb labor.

Thirty (30) years ago 'most economists' (whenever you hear that think of an acadamy of morons who all agree with each other and actively stifle any dissent of an orignal idea) both liberal and conservative predicted that the U.S. would lose its global GDP lead to Germany and Japan by now. They predicted that by today Japan would be the world's largest economy, followed by Germany and then the U.S. They didn't even see China coming. They thought that Germany and Japans growing manufacturing would overtake the U.S. They predicted that U.S. growth would slow and Germany and Japan would soar. What happened is that our GDP increased from $3.8T at the time of the prediction and grew to well over $15T now...we didn't slow...in fact we had unprecedented growth driven by dramatic tech, communication and internet breakthroughs...Microsoft, Apple, Intel, Google, Home Depot, Walmart, etc. etc.. and we left Germany and Japan behind to their lower growth rates and failure to develop the new engines of growth. Not for the first time the linear consensus was exactly wrong.

China is a low margin factory floor that makes non custom goods you buy by the container and wait a month to get. They are vulnerable to high energy cost which erodes their labor advantage and raises freight costs. They are demographic time bomb that will not age well.

No one predicted that the U.S. would soon become the largest oil producer in the world again, that our gas prices would be dropping under $5 and driving our energy costs to the lowest levels in the world. On these very pages we debated the idea of peak oil not that long ago, no one had thought about 'fracking' and the impact on production from previously unrecoverabe oil reserves. In just two years the energy production situation in the U.S. has been transformed. Similarly, no one is paying much attention to the Bio-Med revolution that is taking place in the U.S.; or the manufacturing and robotics revolution that continues to increase production with fewer employees.

If our Government stopped repressing economic growth, innovation, we would leave China in the dust; we probably will any way.
 
Clacy, what is more important for growth, the number of people or the number of innovators and entrepeneurs? What is the relationship between capital and the number of workers; and how does that effect growth?

If U.S. fiscal and economic policy shifted to encouraging innovation and enterpreneurship, instead of punishing it, and if we invited entrepreneurs and innovators as well as capital to reside here through immigration and corporate tax policy, our growth rate would go to 5%, off a tremendous base, and there would be no talk of China overtaking us because they have more subsistence farmers.
 
Quote from Ed Breen:

achilles28,...and yet manufacturing output in the U.S. expanded during that time...and the the U.S. is still the largest manufacturing economy in the world.

I have a friend who runs a $100M manufacturing company with three regional factories...his total employment is 150 for all three. He has computerized wearhouse, where german robots retrieve product to ship, put it on palates, shrink wrap it and deliver it to the loading dock. There are only two employees in shipping...one guy runs the computer that tells the robot what to get, and the other guy runs the forklift; he takes the palates off the rollers and puts them on the truck. He has been increasing production and eliminating jobs for a decade.

I have another friend who is a manufacturing CEO, now with a cement company. He just returned from Germany looking at operations and relayed to me the German view that this is the time to take cheap capital and use it in capital investment that will have low operating costs and low employment costs going forward. That is how Germany can be such a manufacturing power house. Manufacturing, like farming before it, has been eliminating jobs for decades...even without China cheap dumb labor.

Thirty (30) years ago 'most economists' (whenever you hear that think of an acadamy of morons who all agree with each other and actively stifle any dissent of an orignal idea) both liberal and conservative predicted that the U.S. would lose its global GDP lead to Germany and Japan by now. They predicted that by today Japan would be the world's largest economy, followed by Germany and then the U.S. They didn't even see China coming. They thought that Germany and Japans growing manufacturing would overtake the U.S. They predicted that U.S. growth would slow and Germany and Japan would soar. What happened is that our GDP increased from $3.8T at the time of the prediction and grew to well over $15T now...we didn't slow...in fact we had unprecedented growth driven by dramatic tech, communication and internet breakthroughs...Microsoft, Apple, Intel, Google, Home Depot, Walmart, etc. etc.. and we left Germany and Japan behind to their lower growth rates and failure to develop the new engines of growth. Not for the first time the linear consensus was exactly wrong.

China is a low margin factory floor that makes non custom goods you buy by the container and wait a month to get. They are vulnerable to high energy cost which erodes their labor advantage and raises freight costs. They are demographic time bomb that will not age well.

No one predicted that the U.S. would soon become the largest oil producer in the world again, that our gas prices would be dropping under $5 and driving our energy costs to the lowest levels in the world. On these very pages we debated the idea of peak oil not that long ago, no one had thought about 'fracking' and the impact on production from previously unrecoverabe oil reserves. In just two years the energy production situation in the U.S. has been transformed. Similarly, no one is paying much attention to the Bio-Med revolution that is taking place in the U.S.; or the manufacturing and robotics revolution that continues to increase production with fewer employees.

If our Government stopped repressing economic growth, innovation, we would leave China in the dust; we probably will any way.
More...

Great post!
 
Quote from Ed Breen:

"... the manufacturing and robotics revolution that continues to increase production with fewer employees.
More...

This is part of the problem.

When you replace 100 employees with some robots and 2 guys to keep the robots running, what do you do with the other 98?

Everybody would like a well-paying job, but there aren't enough of them for the number of people we have.

And with unemployment insurance being "generous-enough that I'd rather collect unemployment rather than do THAT job"... we've got a small number of people being highly productive and far too many producing little or nothing... yet thinking they somehow deserve much.
 
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