I'm Shorting Hysteria at 24.180

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I am up $5000 on my two contracts. Can't wait for the 3:33 PT electronic time open. I can see this going limit down again for the third day in a row. Lots of of late and weak longs got in between 23 and 25, all them are losing now. If you look at the COT in the beginning of this thread you can see the imbalance that needs to unwind. The only thing the longs have going for them is bid by the Phillipines not getting filled at reasanable prices. The Thai's have promised to fill it though.

I plan on holding this trade down to 15 -18 as long as fundamentals stay in line and agree with me.
 
Wow. Rice Down 1.005 at one point. Trading limit are now - 1.15 because of the two previous limit down days. Its taking every amount of will power to not cover my positions and let them ride. $ 7,000 gain at last check.
 
Shorted another contract 22.215. Probably a bad idea especially in a thinly traded market like this one. But I feel like if I need to go for the jugular on this trade since its already proven me right. I ll short one more contract on a price rise to anywhere near 23. EEEKS!!
 
I spent a lot of this weekend trying to figure out what to do with this short rice position that I am in that is up $15,000. The prudent thing to do would be to take profits on two of the contracts and let the last contract ride with a loose stop. To bad I'm not prudent.

I discovered that price of rice is 90% caused by the value of the yen/euro vs the dollar. So rice fundamentals really don't matter, even though I consider them very bearish at this price.

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I think that that the USD will stay steady vs yen/euro or gain in the next month due to changes in the interest rate outlooks. I also think hedge funds (heavily net long in rice) will be looking to move their hot money out of hard assets and back into the financial markets. So, due to my outlook I see a further downside in rice and plan to short 2 more contracts.
 
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