Pick one side and make sure its your final opinion and your best educated decision. Don't go around making a fool of yourself in front of yourself.
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Im shorting Goog on Monday
- Thread starter jreynolds212
- Start date
Quote from krazykarl:
Goog could blow out numbers today(which they won't) and still get punished. There is nothing left for them to give. They write "software" with javascript? Come on......
Thats been the bear case for ages ... but they have revenue and market domination to show for. They are starting to monetize youtube; doubleclick is getting swallowed; etc.
Quote from twofacedjoker:
Pick one side and make sure its your final opinion and your best educated decision. Don't go around making a fool of yourself in front of yourself.
I just laid out both possibilities from a valuation perspective. I personally don't think this is the end of google growth, though. So I'll take the bull case.
Quote from scriabinop23:
I just laid out both possibilities from a valuation perspective. I personally don't think this is the end of google growth, though. So I'll take the bull case.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080131/spectrum_auction.html?.v=4
All of these little bits add up for an intellectual play like goog.
Quote from scriabinop23:
Thats been the bear case for ages ... but they have revenue and market domination to show for. They are starting to monetize youtube; doubleclick is getting swallowed; etc.
But they've been doing all this for the past year. The stock is behaving as if all of that was priced in long ago.
I'm not guessing here - it will sell-off.
Regards,
Quote from krazykarl:
But they've been doing all this for the past year. The stock is behaving as if all of that was priced in long ago.
I'm not guessing here - it will sell-off.
Regards,
i'm sure there's plenty of hedge fund managers that would love to have your prescience. Perhaps I should go all in short, since you must be right.
Quote from scriabinop23:
i'm sure there's plenty of hedge fund managers that would love to have your prescience. Perhaps I should go all in short, since you must be right.
The intra-day action is looking like a bull-trap - that huge move to the upside lagging behind the rest of the market's moves by ~60 minutes is telling me someone is getting suckered, somewhere.
Quote from krazykarl:
The intra-day action is looking like a bull-trap - that huge move to the upside lagging behind the rest of the market's moves by ~60 minutes is telling me someone is getting suckered, somewhere.
or just that people are buying the news on the FCC auction ...
there's already pressure on the stock. Its not like we're at 750.
see attached. That line cutting across is a fib line and now its acting like resistance. Its time to say goodbye to everyone's favorite action hero. No more Google. The end will come today during the afterhours session when it dumps down 10 or more percent.
Quote from scriabinop23:
how the hell do you quantify a statement like that (using pre report performance as a causation to predict bad earnings)? The stock is already down 27% from peak levels between this and last earnings.
Earnings look forward -- and that says nothing of the positive effect on sentiment for google investors may feel as advertisers tighten their ad spending on noneffective forms and focus on areas with the highest return (online). There's always a search for an 'invulnerable portion of the mkt'
Take a look on the yahoo boards. 90% of the posters are bearish; sound just like you. But how has being bearish at -these- price levels worked out for you ?
Not saying its going to 1000, but at $535 with $20 in 08 earnings, they are a 27 forward pe. Even $18 of earnings is a 29 forward PE. Who's to say 5 year growth rates won't pick up with all of this liquidity flood that the FOMC is providing (via low int rates, additional monetary supply, etc) ? the dollar may go to shit, but corporate earnings just get richer. [as evidenced in the 02-07 runup]
Judging stocks at earnings via pre earnings performance is next to impossible, but I don't see the broad mkt selling off today either. I'd be impressed if so many yahoo board posters were actually right (for a change).
regardless, i think there's 100 points of easy upside to going long goog here (for the next month) vs maybe 50 pts downside.