I'm shorting AAPL and GOOG

I wish to apologize to the trolling community on this board. Sorry if I stirred up the trolls. If I could convince you trolls to trade I would. This board has an open door policy where traders and trolls can seem to co-exist with each other. I wish there was "troll" filter button at the bottom and that would greatly help. Come on guys, cut it out with the trolling. The only time you are wasting is yourself and I can deliver out better responses then the one liner insults you put out anyday of the week.

So lets talk about the times since 2003. Every year since 2003, there has been a lower point on the QQQQs by March. Sometimes that point is in January, but other times its in February or March. There is usually no warning of the drop. The indexes always look somewhat strong. There are rarely just drops from a sharp incline in any stock or index. Usually there is a period of consolidation time. However, the QQQQs seem to drop without warning this time of year.

We can all agree the economy seemed much better in 2005 and 2006 with a greater amount of people employed. In regards to Google, price was bought right up to January 2006 and then, without warning, the price suddenly dropped. Why would it be incomprehensible for such a thing to happen again in a weaker economy?

Amazingly enough, Jim Cramer was at the same position during those years each and every time. Right before Christmas, he would have these lofty price targets for Google and I remember one episode where he painted his hands and face with the word "GOOG". Im not using Cramer as an indicator, but I thought it entertaining that he seems to be at forefront of all these big drops. Generally, Cramer is like the financial news which usually only points out a stock after a signficant period of overperformance. By the time Cramer and the news latches on to a stock, its run is usually done for the next 3-6 months.

I know some of you guys cant remember what it was like back in 2003 because you were in high school so you can't relate. Just close your eyes, click your heals and think.

Quote from riseluxer:

reallitydaytrader sounds like an idiot certainly.
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Now you may ask why not another technology stock like RIMM? RIMM dropped and so its weaker? Right?

RIMM has an entirely different business model then AAPL. RIMM's business model is built around terrorism and the continuation of business operations. The BlackBerry is built around Verizon's network. During 9/11, RIMM's devices were the only ones that seemed to work. The United States government is convinced and many higher up officials now have Blackberries.

Verizon's network is much better then anyone else's. I have had AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon in the tri-state area. AT&T and T-Mobile frequently dropped calls. Verizon never seemed to drop a call.

There has been a tick-up in terrorist events around the world which is setting the stage for a much larger event. The fact there are more events demonstrates a more organized force. Therefore, it is entirely possible larger events are in the works or about to be staged. In such situations, companies and government feel safer with their Blackberries where they can text and send email from a remote location.

One situation that really alarms myself is the fact that Pakistan does not have PAL devices on their nuclear weapons. In the time before PAL in the United States, anyone who had access to a nuclear weapon could set it off. You know that banks get robbed and people break out of impeneratable prisons, so its possible someone could break into a nuclear facility. There is also the likelihood where a General could initiate a nuclear attack without the authorization of the highest power. General Thomas Power during the Cuban missile crisis raised the threat level to Defcon 2 without Kennedy's authorization.

Therefore, PAL was created where every land-based nuclear weapon had an access code. You could not circumvent the locking device without disassembling the weapon completely or, in some cases, the weapon had a small explosive to blow itself up and thus make it inoperable if there was tampering.

So, without the PAL devices on Pakistan's nuclear weapons, anyone could steal it or a lower ranking military official could initiate an attack.

A climatic event could make the RIMM stock go much higher. Verizon's network is still hardened in many places to protect against such an attack. The Verizon building in downtown Manhattan is blast resistant.

AAPL has never pre-released information about their new and upcoming product. This time around it seems as if a lot of information is being released before macworld which is unusual. Usually price runs up to macworld on anticipation of the new product, but now the new product is out there what can macworld do for us this time around?

I am shorting the ones I know best which are AAPL and GOOG. I dont know about RIMM, its a different beast and world events could trigger upside in the stock.
 
The rumor of Apple's possible tablet announcement (7-10" screen) is what made the stock pop just before Christmas. They have yet to unveil anything and the buzz is a demo is scheduled for this month. Only Jobs knows fer sure...

There was some heat to be had in the Q's at the start of the year in 2003, 2004, 2006 and 2007, so as usual, timing is everything.
 
Quote from retaildaytrader:
RIMM's business model is built around terrorism
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Jesus Christ. If only I could short you.
Quote from retaildaytrader:
One situation that really alarms myself
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It alarms yourself, does it? Right on, brother.
Quote from retaildaytrader:
Therefore, PAL was created where every land-based nuclear weapon had an access code. You could not circumvent the locking device without disassembling the weapon completely or, in some cases, the weapon had a small explosive to blow itself up and thus make it inoperable if there was tampering.
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Wow!!
Quote from retaildaytrader:
AAPL has never pre-released information about their new and upcoming product. This time around it seems as if a lot of information is being released before macworld which is unusual. Usually price runs up to macworld on anticipation of the new product, but now the new product is out there what can macworld do for us this time around?
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Yes, this is a good reason to short AAPL .
 
Quote from traderNik:

Jesus Christ. If only I could short you.
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TraderNik,

I do not know your experience level either trading or lifewise, but I can tell you were not there on September 11th, 2001...

I clearly made an argument as to why RIMM might not be a good short here and concluded the popularity of the device was as a result of terrorism. The reason why BlackBerries became so popular was as a direct result of 9/11. On that horrible day, we were not able to get through to loved ones around the NYC area. All of the cellphones seemed not to work. However, the device that did work was the BlackBerry because it used a propietary network. This is why you see many business and government leaders today carrying them around. Blackberries became popular shortly after 9/11 because they were seen as emergency communication tools.

I guess these issues of communicating during horrible events and unplanned emergencies do not effect you so you dont understand. Well, I guess you just have to experience it firsthand for you to really understand these things versus being behind desk at school and watching it on television.

The Blackberry was never meant as a device to compete with the Iphone. It was meant as an emergency communications device. Over the years, it evolved into different things. Instead of emergency communications, it evolved into a device which extends our business day and to perform many other tasks.

The point behind the Blackberry is still sound. It operates on a propietary network that is harder to disrupt then cell phones. Therefore, any terrorist acts will have businesses spending more to equip their employees with the Blackberry.

As terrorist events increase, and they will increase, companies will get increasingly paranoid and equip their employees with the Blackberry. Already, you see them closing embassies over in Yemen and they caught a guy on a flight who had attempted to set off a bomb. Do you not think there are more attacks planned? I say right now, more then any other time, is the greatest chance for there to be an attack on either Washington DC or NYC. Criminals most always return to the place they victimized previously.

I know you may seem to believe this is all ridiculous. However, its not ridiculous to our troops who are fighting over in Afghanistan and to those victimized on 9/11. I hope you can be sensitive to these issues.
 
I also thought I might add something about RIMM. You have seen news articles about the outages. Networks usually do not go down when they are unused. The networks are most likely going down because they are at capacity.

During 2008/2009, RIMM was probably uncertain about the economy and so they did not increase capacity on their network. The capacity is probably still the same as it was in 2007. However, businesses and consumers are re-grouping and increasing BlackBerry usage. RIMM's networks have now hit capacity demonstrating that there are a significant number of additional subscribers then there were in 2007.

I am not a computer programmer or network specialist. However, I do know the times when networks and computers have gone down. In my experience, its usually during times of heavy usage. I can only conclude that RIMM's networks are being stretched past their operating limits because of additional subscribers.

If you were a company or government organization, do you want your employees holding the Iphone, the Blackberry or just an ordinary cellphone during an emergency situation? I believe as the terrorist organizations begin their own surge, we will find more entities investing in the Blackberry and probably giving them to ordinary employees vs. only upper management.

This is a sensitive topic for me as well. New York City is where I grew up and 9/11 did effect me. However, it does no good to leave these topics undiscussed and to ignore the issues. I honestly like the Iphone more then any other device, but I know the Blackberry is a better device for communicating in an emergency. It is because of my experience during the aforementioned events that I believe in the Blackberry. I believe other companies will feel the same way as I do.
 
Quote from retaildaytrader:
RIMM's business model is built around terrorism
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Quote from traderNik:
That's ridiculous
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Quote from retaildaytrader:
I know you may seem to believe this is ridiculous. However, its not ridiculous to our troops who are fighting over in Afghanistan and to those victimized on 9/11. I hope you can be sensitive to these issues.
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Quote from retaildaytrader:
it does no good to leave these topics undiscussed and to ignore the issues.
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You fucking lying little c**t.

You implied that I was either denigrating or making light of something that pertains to our troops overseas. This was a fucking lie as I never said anything about our troops. I simply said your statement that RIMM's business model is built around terrorism is a load of horsheshit, like 99% of the rest of your comments here. You attempted to twist it into evidence of an anti-troops stance on my part.

Then, instead of being a man about your lie and keeping your mouth shut when caught, you attempt to spin your statements as an appeal to keep discussions about our efforts overseas open.

You're a pathetic, lying piece of shit.
 
that is PRECISELY your problem. You know NOTHING about other stocks (and I doubt from your explanations you know anything about AAPL or GOOG either) and from that you concur AAPL and GOOG must be the best shorts. I agree with an earlier poster: I would love to short you!!! I am very thankful that the market includes people like you. Every war, every dispute, every competitive event needs cannon fodder and you make for great one. Thank you buddy!!!


Quote from retaildaytrader:


I am shorting the ones I know best which are AAPL and GOOG. I dont know about RIMM, its a different beast and world events could trigger upside in the stock. [/B]
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