I'm seriously thinking of giving up on technical patterns.

zdreg said:
Then it is not a true niche. A true niche is one you can explain to others but they cannot duplicate your performance.
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Call it whatever you want. I don't care if it's a so called niche or not. I enjoy it and it makes me money. I think mean reversion is descriptive enough. If you don't know what that is, it's not my problem.
 
jnbadger said:
I've stated in other threads that I've mainly been concentrating on tight consolidations in volatile stocks that are trading with unusually high volume. However, I've also stated that this comes with a win rate below 50%. There is a lot of decision making in the moment, and although I've done very well, I'm 55 and in my 27th year of trading and it's becoming an exhausting grind.

On the bright side, I've also been implementing a mean reversion strategy over the last few years. And after about a decade of back testing and painstakingly verifying those results, I finally have it dialed in. The entries are automatic after a stock hits my scanner and that's what I've been looking forward to for many years. I just had to put up with the grind until I got here.

I know last week was only a 4 day week, but more than 90% of my trades were mean reversion, and for the first time in months, I didn't have a losing day. And although I did more than 10x the amount of trades I normally do per day, it was surprisingly relaxing. In short, trading is fun again.

I'm sure I'll still do an occasional consolidation breakout here and there, but the potential risk/reward will have to be so good, I'll have hit the buy or short button before I even have a chance to think about it. But if I were to only do those trades, I would maybe do 15 to 20 trades per week, and the waiting in between them would be a grind in and of itself.

I've always loved deer hunting, but I suck at sitting in a stand all day and waiting for them to come to me. Come to think of it, every deer I've ever bagged was when I was walking. It's just how I roll. I just don't have the patience to sight tight when I feel I could be doing something more effective.

Obviously, I won't get into specifics about my strategy, not to mention tactics. But I'd be glad to address general questions about the transition, and I'd also like to hear from others who have had any similar experiences.

Happy Easter everyone.
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Thanks.Interesting post.

How many years of the 27 would you have been able to trade fulltime,little to no other income?

If you care to share.
 
semperfrosty said:
Thanks.Interesting post.

How many years of the 27 would you have been able to trade fulltime,little to no other income?

If you care to share.
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Don't mind at all. I was usually working odd jobs for the first 10 years. And up until a few years ago, I would be a seasonal driver for UPS just to take a break from the trading grind (a grind which sometimes involve not making much money). But honestly, after I quit drinking is when the ideas and money started to come. I had already been back testing for many years before I quit, but I was NOT a casual drinker. To this day I believe I could've been a full time trader and only a trader when I was just a few years in if I hadn't been drinking. So don't let my time frames discourage you. I wasted so much time because of that shit.

Oddly enough, there was about a 4 year period in the mid to late 2000's when I was on a team who used automated mean reversion, and I did extremely well. But while most of us were long only, our programmer got caught being short a stock which was being bought out. I was in our branch managers office, and watching those losses pile up on his management machine was just a nightmare. That was our programmers last day of trading, and he took his program with him. Oh well. I'm still long only, just because I can't get the short side to back test well.
 
jnbadger said:
Don't mind at all. I was usually working odd jobs for the first 10 years. And up until a few years ago, I would be a seasonal driver for UPS just to take a break from the trading grind (a grind which sometimes involve not making much money). But honestly, after I quit drinking is when the ideas and money started to come. I had already been back testing for many years before I quit, but I was NOT a casual drinker. To this day I believe I could've been a full time trader and only a trader when I was just a few years in if I hadn't been drinking. So don't let my time frames discourage you. I wasted so much time because of that shit.

Oddly enough, there was about a 4 year period in the mid to late 2000's when I was on a team who used automated mean reversion, and I did extremely well. But while most of us were long only, our programmer got caught being short a stock which was being bought out. I was in our branch managers office, and watching those losses pile up on his management machine was just a nightmare. That was our programmers last day of trading, and he took his program with him. Oh well. I'm still long only, just because I can't get the short side to back test well.
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I love to hear stories
 
jnbadger said:
Don't mind at all. I was usually working odd jobs for the first 10 years. And up until a few years ago, I would be a seasonal driver for UPS just to take a break from the trading grind (a grind which sometimes involve not making much money). But honestly, after I quit drinking is when the ideas and money started to come. I had already been back testing for many years before I quit, but I was NOT a casual drinker. To this day I believe I could've been a full time trader and only a trader when I was just a few years in if I hadn't been drinking. So don't let my time frames discourage you. I wasted so much time because of that shit.

Oddly enough, there was about a 4 year period in the mid to late 2000's when I was on a team who used automated mean reversion, and I did extremely well. But while most of us were long only, our programmer got caught being short a stock which was being bought out. I was in our branch managers office, and watching those losses pile up on his management machine was just a nightmare. That was our programmers last day of trading, and he took his program with him. Oh well. I'm still long only, just because I can't get the short side to back test well.
More...

Awesome back story mate!

Love a good come back! haha

The booze is a cruel master.
 
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