I'm seeing major positive divergences

Cunparis,

It is hard to explain but when I say "my gut", I mean a mixture of TA and a gut feel...kinda like when a trade feels wrong or when something is "acting wrong". Hopefully, for your sake, I'm wrong. I don't see anything positive in the charts on a technical POV. I know it's a personal decision but, if it were me, I'd cut my losses. Sure, it'll hurt (and we might go up) but the most important thing in trading is to preserve capital so that you can live to fight another day.

Just to clarify, I am out of my Oct 10 longs. I'm flat.

Good trading.
 
all i see is relentless selling

dow down 500 after hours, S & P down over 6 percent

yeah, that's really fucking bullish

every gain, sold HARD

broken uptrend from the current low

looks more like a fuckiing CRASH, than a bullish development
 
Quote from cunparis:

Unfortunately I'm already long, from a few weeks ago. yeah, that was stupid.

The thing is we must follow the charts and not follow our gut...
More...

Don't rationalize yourself into the poor house. Once in a position it's very easy, in fact it's human nature, to "see" what you want to see.

Ask what it is your indicators are really indicating. They started sloping upward because the market consolidated. That's ALL they say. Doesn't necessarily mean the market has to bounce. On the volume pane you correctly noted the decline in volume. But again that's typical for a consolidation. The volume gas already begun increasing again, as we MAY be falling out of the bottom of the consolidation. Anything can and probably will happen but right now, based on your chart, I don't see holding a long for anything more than a quick scalp.


If memory serves the last time we were limit down it turned out to be a temporary bottom. If I'm not mistaken though we had already started bouncing well before the RTH open. So far that doesn't appear to be the case this time.

Hopefully I'll be able to maintain focused objectivity today and go with the flow. Whatever it happens to be.
 
Quote from Lucrum:

Don't rationalize yourself into the poor house. Once in a position it's very easy, in fact it's human nature, to "see" what you want to see.
More...


I totally agree with you. Yesterday when it looked like a breakout down from the triangle I started shorting another index as a hedge. I took it off as the market started rebounding. So I'm not totally blinded by my long here, I'm open to anything.

For me the move started in asia and then in europe and so the overnight move was mostly the result of asians & europeans, not americans. I'm not sure the american traders are going to see it the same way.

Scenario 1: They panic. This is a crash.

Scenario 2: They put in buy limit orders at the previous low (around 840) and pick up the bargains.

It's very likely this is *THE* bottom and we'll have all the capitulation we need. I've got enough cash to ride it out and to buy when the time is right. A move down below 840 and a close in positive territory will be one possible sign to go long.

Remember, I'm working off the charts and my charts do show positive divergence. They show the down move is out of gas.

Look at the overnight chart, the volume was around 2-6k per 10 minute bar. During the trading day it's 100k. So this move down is the result of a very minority of traders!

If this move had happened during the day with above average volume I'd be a lot more concerned. And my fear now is that people will just panic and run for the exits.

Finally, someone will be buying when the market opens. Who? It's an interesting thought. Obviously someone with a lot more money and experience than the people selling..
 
You long guys need to bail out before you end up belly up, I got all kinds of indicators pointing to a rally, in currencies/commodities yet EVERYTHING sells off. Why stand infront of a tidal wave?
 
Quote from cunparis:

I'm not sure the american traders are going to see it the same way.

Scenario 1: They panic. This is a crash.

Scenario 2: They put in buy limit orders at the previous low (around 840) and pick up the bargains.
More...

Looks like Scenario 2 is playing out although it's too early to be for sure. A wave of selling could come at any time.

Interesting to note is that the ES just barely missed the prior low by a few points. If the selling pressure building up from the limit down couldn't get it there, I think that's really good news.

attached is a chart of TF. Look at how it started going up at 9am. This is 20 minutes before ES started trading again. I find this pretty interesting..

attachment.php


Market trending sideways now for the past 20 minutes. People don't know what to do. Sell? Buy? This is what we've been seeing for the past 2 week.
 

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