Im leaning towards supply and demand

J

jonbig04

as being a cause for high oil.


I know nothing has happened in the world (that we know of) to justify the percentage change in oil, but it cant be specs who sell there positions making them net flat.

Maybe oil was just a bargain for all these years, and now its priced correctly. Its frustrating that we cant figure this problem out.
 
lots of threads on this, and some pretty brutal arguing as well.

Important thing is what, if anything, do you do about it?

other than increasing margins (stupid), or limiting what funds can do (maybe OK), I don't see them doing much.
 
Whats to figure out.

Plenty of Oil? Yep, supplies are fine.

Global demand? Sure. Increasing, probably, but with plenty of actual, physical supply, the GLOBAL demand IS being met.

What about Greed? You betcha! My barber just bought a few CL contracts.

Manipulation? No, never. This a professional, regulated market. All is fair to all participants, at every level.

Its a free market, this is just how things work. Don't you get it? Without us traders and speculators, there would be no such thing as price discovery, and of course, without price discovery, the refiners, airlines, and shippers just would not know what the fuck to do. They couldn't discover a price for a barrel of oil if it fell out of the sky, landed on their face, and began to wiggle. Jebus Herbert Chrizist!
 
Quote from Jayford:

lots of threads on this, and some pretty brutal arguing as well.

Important thing is what, if anything, do you do about it?

other than increasing margins (stupid), or limiting what funds can do (maybe OK), I don't see them doing much.
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Most of the thread result in cyber-screaming matches haha. I think that is testament to how different this is. Bubble or no bubble. Tech was different simply b/c they average joe wasnt heavily invested in the nasdaq, the housing bubble is closer to home (forgive the pun) bc people FEEL their home's value going down...but then a huge chunk of houses in america are owned outright. But with oil, the impact is nearly universal.

Im not a conspiracy theorist, but maybe there are supply issues we just havent been told about. I havent been involved in that many bubbles, but i have been in a few. It seems to me that what makes a bubble is insane overbuying with the notion that its only going to go up. However everybody and their mother seems to think oil is in a bubble, can that almost by definition, make it NOT a bubble? Are we so used to bubbles that we assume everything that goes up with any kind of velocity is a bubble? Dont yell at me.
 
Quote from jonbig04:

Im not a conspiracy theorist, but maybe there are supply issues we just havent been told about. I havent been involved in that many bubbles, but i have been in a few. It seems to me that what makes a bubble is insane overbuying with the notion that its only going to go up. However everybody and their mother seems to think oil is in a bubble, can that almost by definition, make it NOT a bubble? Are we so used to bubbles that we assume everything that goes up with any kind of velocity is a bubble? Dont yell at me.
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this time, its different.
it takes a few million years to "make" oil and we're almost out. we'll prolly run out by the end of July, but thats being a bit aggressive.
 
Quote from RhinoGG:



Its a free market, this is just how things work. Don't you get it? Without us traders and speculators, there would be no such thing as price discovery, and of course, without price discovery, the refiners, airlines, and shippers just would not know what the fuck to do. They couldn't discover a price for a barrel of oil if it fell out of the sky, landed on their face, and began to wiggle. Jebus Herbert Chrizist!
More...

u are arguing with the wrong guy. i don't think they should do anything. i was just posing a question. traders provide liquidity, which is why i said it would be stupid to raise margins. the smaller guys most certainly do nothing more than provide liquidity, and that may be all the big guys do (jury is still out on that, but i say leave em alone).
 
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