I appreciate you volpri. I will respond to your post when I get off work tonight. Thanks for the analysis.
I'm having trouble with my trading
- Thread starter Xzhi
- Start date
I appreciate you volpri. I will respond to your post when I get off work tonight. Thanks for the analysis.
Helped perhaps for leadership of men and gals but humility means little for markets imo.
It don’t care you are proud..humble..a jerk or meek. Just don’t care. It will empty the pockets of all...rich or poor.
Thank you tiddlywinks,
Very good post. One thing I learned from this video is the continuation of risk adjustment after entering the trade just as volpri has stated. The guy adjust his stop loss for logical reasoning. Regardless of strategy this makes sense, cause one the trade is placed, we can't control the market , but we can control our risk.
volpri,
This is very good post. Now I know what it means when i use to read "a trader can control risk"
I was BIG believer in set the stop loss, set the profit target and walk away. I always questioned this with my trading. Lately, I have been adjust my profit target when the market makes unknown support and levels I was unaware of while the trade on. But I need to get better with adjust the stop loss as well.
There has been countless times where I have been up in the money, and trade turn around on me and I take a loss, respsecting the stop loss, and saying "My PT will be hit soon, I will just wait to get some good RR" lol. The feeling afterwards is never good.
Excellent write up volpri and its appreciated. I like the price action discussion. I read the chart similar. A few questions and comments.
1. Is there a max risk you will take per trade? For example, 30 tick max risk?
2. When you set your SL and PT, do you always go for RR > 1 or you don't consider it and just setup trade.
3. I would choose the big green bar as my signal long bar and the next bar as the entry long bar. Why not choose the bull bar as signal bar below indicated with black arrow?
1. Is there a max risk you will take per trade? For example, 30 tick max risk?
2. When you set your SL and PT, do you always go for RR > 1 or you don't consider it and just setup trade.
3. I would choose the big green bar as my signal long bar and the next bar as the entry long bar. Why not choose the bull bar as signal bar below indicated with black arrow?
Thank you volpri for the chart analysis. Yes, please continue when you have time. I really appreciate it. Take your time.
1) With the ES I don’t like to risk more than 5 points per contract and prefer to keep it within 2 points. Nevertheless, i set SL ‘s based on PA to the left. If the logical PA SL is more than 5 points I would seriously consider skipping the trade or waiting for a PB and possible resumption that will give me a closer SL. Breakouts usually need to have large initial SL’s. I know that sounds backwards but see 75% to 80% of attempts at BO’s fail. So, if a bull BO fails there can be a deep PB. Example:
So you got a bull bo. If you entered on that first or second bull bar the proper SL is below that first bull bar. Then you get a bear reversal/BO south. If you held your long through this deep pb and say added to your position you would still be in your trade. But if you had a closer SL you might be out with a loss. BO’ can have deep pb’s because the other side is ALWAYS gonna try to make them fail. If you dial down to a smaller TF you will see exactly what these BO’s broke out from.
2) I generally skip a trade if I think it won’t give me at least a min scalp. I consider that to be 1 point in the ES. So, I ask myself “according to PA in front of me do I think the market will go in my favor 1 point before it goes against me 1 point?” If the probability favors it will then I will take a position with at least the min reward of one Point for a PT but that can change very quickly based on how the market acted after I took my position. Based upon how far the actual Risk was before the market went in my favor. Said another way I want at least a 1:1 structure but will change that rapidly depending on how the market responds after my entry.
3) ok we get a BO and shortly thereafter that big green bull bar. Why don’t I enter there? I could but remember 80% of BO attempts fail. Look at the bar before it. While also a bull bar it has a huge tail on top and close near its low. That means sellers were trying to reverse the BO. Additionally, Look at the 4 bars prior to that big green bar you mentioned. All of them have tails on top...= sellers trying to reverse price back into the blue lines sideways move. They are trying to reverse the BO. So I don’t go long on the big bull bar you mentioned because I want to see a pb after the BO that stays above the top of the BO point which is the top blue line. I wants to see some bearish action fail to push price back down into those blue lines. I see that happen on the next bar after that big bull bar followed by bulls then exerting on the bull bar after that red bar failure by bears to push price down. When I see that gap (yellow) then I know this is a higher probability trade. So, two bars later (after last bear attempt) I am long. I could enter on the bar you mentioned but it is a lower probability trade.
Thank you very much for your analysis and response volpri. I make sense to me.
Volpri,
I like your comments.
I agree with you are saying regarding moving the SL and PT as needed. I really agree with that.
I like to explain my thinking with chart examples.
Breakout scenario.
Green arrow entry
Blue arrow PT
Red arrow SL.
I enter, what shall a trader do now:
A. Breakeven
B. Wait a few bars, and take small loss
C. Hold on and wait for profit target. Let the trade play out.
Well here is what I did after entry and the big red bar.
1. Move my stop to the black arrow.
2. Move my PT to the light blue arrow.
Go stop out for a loss of money.
In conclusion, moving the PT made logical sense. Moving the stop loss, not so well. I should kept SL where it was til after that big green bar reversal. It is what it is.
So yes, I agree with you. You can have good plan or initial trade structure, but as we clearly know, the market may have another plan, and that is where Uncertainty rules, and causes for changes in our trade parameters. I will accept being wrong in moving my SL to to early, but moving that PT downwards was a good idea as the market told me "I don't care about your stinky profit target you got from somewhere, i am stopping price here, there, take that"
Last edited:
Good deal. Good play.
With that big bar BO you entered on you would expect better follow through to reach your profit target (dark blue). When that big bar was followed by 2 small bull bars then a bear bar you know things are in a PB that would most likely morph into a sideways move at the least and perhaps even a reversal. Just not good FT on that big bull BO bar to hang in their hoping for it to reach your PT (dark Blue).
So, with the new info that says the BO is probably going to fail or it would have had better follow through. So, knowing THAT you leave your original SL in place wait till after the PB (and you really don't have to worry about the first PB being too deep as everything to the left says buying has been strong.) So in view of that buying strength to the left most likely you will get a test of that high before any reversal. So with some adjustment in your SL and PT you should be able to get out with a smaller profit (light blue) instead of a loss waiting for your original PT to be hit and it wasn't. An if all that turned out wrong and you had to take a loss and it would be a lot less.
It is certainly a valid assumption that price will test the high again so you will be able to get out with a profit albeit, less than your original plan.
See, with initial SL and PT those are our BEST guesses. But when the dynamic of PA begins to unfold we must adapt them if necessary.
Good trading!
The next trade would be after that BO south out of the top mini range. Notice the first PB after that BO south barely made it to touch the bottom of the mini range after your exit. So, the play would be to short after the PB on a lower low after the first bear bar in the PB. Then of course it sailed south....
With that big bar BO you entered on you would expect better follow through to reach your profit target (dark blue). When that big bar was followed by 2 small bull bars then a bear bar you know things are in a PB that would most likely morph into a sideways move at the least and perhaps even a reversal. Just not good FT on that big bull BO bar to hang in their hoping for it to reach your PT (dark Blue).
So, with the new info that says the BO is probably going to fail or it would have had better follow through. So, knowing THAT you leave your original SL in place wait till after the PB (and you really don't have to worry about the first PB being too deep as everything to the left says buying has been strong.) So in view of that buying strength to the left most likely you will get a test of that high before any reversal. So with some adjustment in your SL and PT you should be able to get out with a smaller profit (light blue) instead of a loss waiting for your original PT to be hit and it wasn't. An if all that turned out wrong and you had to take a loss and it would be a lot less.
It is certainly a valid assumption that price will test the high again so you will be able to get out with a profit albeit, less than your original plan.
See, with initial SL and PT those are our BEST guesses. But when the dynamic of PA begins to unfold we must adapt them if necessary.
Good trading!
The next trade would be after that BO south out of the top mini range. Notice the first PB after that BO south barely made it to touch the bottom of the mini range after your exit. So, the play would be to short after the PB on a lower low after the first bear bar in the PB. Then of course it sailed south....