I'm halting (most) purchases on crypto...

[JackMorgan]

I pray for the immortal souls of the crypto brethren

God works in mysterious ways, but the markets ? They just take your money, and leave you like this

 

[JackMorgan]

Bear markets (crypto winters) are very difficult times on the emotions

During the last bear market, I worked extra hours at my job and cut down on my posts on ET

This time around, I got no job, so I'm reading more books and spending more time with the family, taking small vacation trips here and there

I wonder what is the bottom for BTC and ETH, but the thing that is more worrisome is that we may just be at the beginning and could last another 2 years

The riviera ? or the SUV in Swaziland ?

 

[johnarb]

The riviera ? or the SUV in Swaziland ?

Nice vacation pic, ours is not that remote, haven't been farther than 1000 miles from home in the past 2 years

 

[ET180]

One entity I see as possible good long term investments are dealing with water, California is in severe status along with many western states.

Use to go into Walmart and buy gallons of water jugs, very hard to come by now.

That's true. But here in the Pacific Northwest, it's been raining for the past several days. And not just occasional showers, but heavy rain. Heard that there have been more bridge lifts due to higher water levels. I don't recall seeing this much rain in June. It rains most of the year here, but usually the summer is clear and dry.

 

[M.W.]

Canadian Reits are about 17% below their ATH. Cannot further fall? After housing went up several hundred percent in Canada in the past 15 years? What are you talking about?

Alright, this post may not be quite what you think.

Basically, I'm looking at REITs, at least the top rated ones in Canada and right now they are selling at over 25% draw-down from the start of the year. These are reliable kings and many have been depressed all the way down to near 2020 bottom-of-the-crash prices.

I don't think there is much further these can go, and as all the buildings they own also counts as an inflation-hedge, my plan is to keep DCA into these fallen dividend-kings.

As for the blue-chip cryptos, it is quite possible with all the massive leverage, that they will continue to fall much further. Even the perma-bull hodlers who have been in there for a long time, have no choice but to liquidate if they are still caught up on leverage.

This means another (possible) large catalyst down for fire-sale prices.

For now, my plan is to DCA into fire-sale REITs, and be cautious of falling knives in blue-chip cryptos. Best of both worlds (if you can hold your margin), pray for an epic crash in cryptos while buying as much depressed stocks in the meantime as you can. Just resist the urge to put on more leverage. The fed has bungled their economy up good... Russia isn't going to be forgiving.

That said, in 5 years it 'may' seem wrong in hindsight to not have focused heavily on crypto at the moment when we look back on 2020. But on a risk/reward... there are some very good equities that don't look like they can fall any further at the moment (knock on wood).

Look on the bright side, use your REIT dividends now to buy up spot crypto later. Or if the FED successfully manages to put the US into a great depression again (looks more likely by the day), then you can pay your bills still with REIT distributions.

 

[MrMuppet]

I personally won't touch anything real estate right now, just because I have no clue about this market.

Interest rate markets are becoming the hot shit after they were dead for about 5-6 years, so it's definitely not wasted time to brush up interest rate market knowledge. There's a lot of dislocations here that can be played.

Crypto is extremely profitable to trade right now if you know what you're doing and if you can construct a proper portfolio (instead of HODLing and hoping)

I mean, when guys like @JackMorgan are "right" you know it's time to load up. In the end, crypto has been at this point three times already and we all know how it's gonna end. It's the fastest growing market globally and it has a business cycle of four years due to the BTC halving mechanics. Wait for the bottom nuke then buy with both hands and you can probably retire two years after.


The only question is how you would do that without nuking yourself and at the same time build a meaningful position with a good average.
IMHO hedging and staking/lending crypto for more crypto makes the most sense. Aka, sell futures on spot holdings even though the carry is small. Loan your spot holdings for yield, since short sellers are bidding up the borrowing rates.

Options volatility is very juicy right now, so replacing spot delta with option delta is also a good move, if you can handle the portfolio: Let's say you have 30 BTC. Instead of just hoping for a bounce, sell 30 BTC futures, sell 30 puts and buy 30 callspreads (sell put/buy call/sell call with higher strike).
Puts are trading at a premium towards calls so you're getting paid to be long.
You could also just do cash secured puts or covered calls, but they're hard to handle.

Most important thing when you're conviction buying on the way down: no leverage, focus on carry instead of predicting the bottom and keep enough dry powder to load up once you see the nuke. Since everyone is running towards the exit right now, ask yourself how you can make a profit by taking the other side...and be paid in crypto.

 

[Trader Curt]

I personally won't touch anything real estate right now, just because I have no clue about this market.

Interest rate markets are becoming the hot shit after they were dead for about 5-6 years, so it's definitely not wasted time to brush up interest rate market knowledge. There's a lot of dislocations here that can be played.

Crypto is extremely profitable to trade right now if you know what you're doing and if you can construct a proper portfolio (instead of HODLing and hoping)

I mean, when guys like @JackMorgan are "right" you know it's time to load up. In the end, crypto has been at this point three times already and we all know how it's gonna end. It's the fastest growing market globally and it has a business cycle of four years due to the BTC halving mechanics. Wait for the bottom nuke then buy with both hands and you can probably retire two years after.


The only question is how you would do that without nuking yourself and at the same time build a meaningful position with a good average.
IMHO hedging and staking/lending crypto for more crypto makes the most sense. Aka, sell futures on spot holdings even though the carry is small. Loan your spot holdings for yield, since short sellers are bidding up the borrowing rates.

Options volatility is very juicy right now, so replacing spot delta with option delta is also a good move, if you can handle the portfolio: Let's say you have 30 BTC. Instead of just hoping for a bounce, sell 30 BTC futures, sell 30 puts and buy 30 callspreads (sell put/buy call/sell call with higher strike).
Puts are trading at a premium towards calls so you're getting paid to be long.
You could also just do cash secured puts or covered calls, but they're hard to handle.

Most important thing when you're conviction buying on the way down: no leverage, focus on carry instead of predicting the bottom and keep enough dry powder to load up once you see the nuke. Since everyone is running towards the exit right now, ask yourself how you can make a profit by taking the other side...and be paid in crypto.

Exactly...

Its extremely easy for anyone to say "This is the end of Bitcoin!" But the reality is the whales are still out there, and the minute it starts pumping again, everyone who sold near the bottom is going to revenge trade and buy back in and there will be another massive rally. It's inevitable. That's why the market plays on the suckers that think this is the end of Bitcoin. Dumb money.

Don't ever bet against Bitcoin, and don't ever let fear take your Bitcoin.

 

[JackMorgan]

JackMorgan has no control over what you Cathy Wood clones do in the crypto markets

I notice ya'll never post yer losses.

 

[Sprout]

I personally won't touch anything real estate right now, just because I have no clue about this market.

Interest rate markets are becoming the hot shit after they were dead for about 5-6 years, so it's definitely not wasted time to brush up interest rate market knowledge. There's a lot of dislocations here that can be played.

Crypto is extremely profitable to trade right now if you know what you're doing and if you can construct a proper portfolio (instead of HODLing and hoping)

I mean, when guys like @JackMorgan are "right" you know it's time to load up. In the end, crypto has been at this point three times already and we all know how it's gonna end. It's the fastest growing market globally and it has a business cycle of four years due to the BTC halving mechanics. Wait for the bottom nuke then buy with both hands and you can probably retire two years after.


The only question is how you would do that without nuking yourself and at the same time build a meaningful position with a good average.
IMHO hedging and staking/lending crypto for more crypto makes the most sense. Aka, sell futures on spot holdings even though the carry is small. Loan your spot holdings for yield, since short sellers are bidding up the borrowing rates.

Options volatility is very juicy right now, so replacing spot delta with option delta is also a good move, if you can handle the portfolio: Let's say you have 30 BTC. Instead of just hoping for a bounce, sell 30 BTC futures, sell 30 puts and buy 30 callspreads (sell put/buy call/sell call with higher strike).
Puts are trading at a premium towards calls so you're getting paid to be long.
You could also just do cash secured puts or covered calls, but they're hard to handle.

Most important thing when you're conviction buying on the way down: no leverage, focus on carry instead of predicting the bottom and keep enough dry powder to load up once you see the nuke. Since everyone is running towards the exit right now, ask yourself how you can make a profit by taking the other side...and be paid in crypto.

Great well articulated post

 

[formikatrading]

You can always spend the time looking at your bored ape!

Look, I give you props for getting in on that and getting in front of the suckers but I would sell that thing as soon as possible.

Bear markets (crypto winters) are very difficult times on the emotions

During the last bear market, I worked extra hours at my job and cut down on my posts on ET

This time around, I got no job, so I'm reading more books and spending more time with the family, taking small vacation trips here and there

I wonder what is the bottom for BTC and ETH, but the thing that is more worrisome is that we may just be at the beginning and could last another 2 years