I'm going to mostly cash in Long-Term portfolio

[deaddog]

Oh yeah; The flakes are very small.

 

[Nine_Ender]

Thank you. I'm beginning to see what you guys are getting at.

The US dollar, the currency of choice, is backed by the US government. I've seen the US government. It's made up of politicians. And there is nothing more trustworthy than a politician.

Now I have to decide who I trust more, politicians or computers. I'm thankful that I can still wander out in the bush with a gold pan and find a little color.

Bitcoin is still a $1 coin that rode sentiment and speculation to $50K. I wouldn't want to be holding any of that when the music stops.

 

[piezoe]

If you have a long investment horizon, trying to time the market based on 'feelings' is a mistake you'll pay for years from now.

I learned that lesson the old fashioned way.

 

[themickey]

Danged donut reminds me of crypto, there one moment, gone the next.

 

[VicBee]

Why are you still holding crypto? It's a market that trades just like stocks and it seems to be in a downtrend.

I know, we had that exchange about cutting losses while it's still dropping.

 

[VicBee]

I didn't believe in crypto for the longest time either. Sure, we can all see that its been the best investment since 2013, but the magic behind crypto goes much deeper. What chance does the world really have against actions of the central banks and all sides of the government? For those people who it benefits, perhaps they like the status quo, but now with all this vaccine mandate crap, you can see how the government wants to consolidate power.

Crypto is perhaps the last chance we have to give the power back to the people. When you look at things like smart contracts, you see how transformative this can be for the side of the population that believes in justice. Imagine insurance companies refusing to pay a legitimate claim. You are literally at their mercy. But with a smart contract, if designed properly, its an issue that can be solved.

My views have changed so much in the past few years. Although I always thought of the government as being an entity that provided so much for the people and allowed for advancement of a country, I now see it as a major hindrance. They are high on power, reckless with their decisions, and in no way promote what will be of long term benefit to its citizens. You first take power away from the government by taking away of their control over the monetary system. Everything else will fall into place. Crypto is almost a better version of democracy because we are now at the limits of what this form of government is capable of accomplishing. Crypto to me is honestly a better way of doing things in the future because it ensures accountability.

I know you're trying to be convincing with your argument. But it's exactly your argument that worries me about BTC and here's why:
You're in the US and Americans have an irrational fear of government, stoked by those who profit most from small and weak government. So many scream for freedom, drapped in the red, white and blue with zero understanding of what it means. Freedom to kill others, freedom to fear walking in the street, freedom to bump into mental cases living on the street, freedom to be mugged by a drug addict.... no one to weigh rights and responsibilities.
Europeans support their government for the simple reason that they're elected and can be replaced if they don't perform as expected. Every country has multiple political parties, each selling their vision of a better future with them. Europeans understand that taxes fund societal programs like healthcare, education, retirement, infrastructure. Europeans understand that absolute freedom doesn't exist because it's called anarchy and the law of the jungle rules. America is getting there.
So, BTC as the means to further weaken government? As a mean to detach monetary policies and government oversight from currency? I don't think so.
BTC offers solutions to a number of practical global financial issues, provided governments maintain oversight to ensure that scammers, drug lords, cleptocratic banana republics or millionaires and billionaires can't hide their transactions.
Can BTC displace gold? I think an industy as old as men may challenge that vision.

 

[NoahA]

no one to weigh rights and responsibilities.

You don't think that the government is high on the power because of exactly this? Since when do you think the government actually took seriously any of their responsibilities? About the only thing they might be scared of is a mass revolution, as can be seen by the storming of the capital, so they continue pumping printed money into the system for fear of a major revolt.

Europeans support their government for the simple reason that they're elected and can be replaced if they don't perform as expected.

All sides are corrupt at this point. It doesn't matter if you vote republican or democrat. Most officials in both parties are rich off the system and simply have no incentive to change, but every incentive to keep the system going. Heaven forbid they actually had to meet some sort of performance metric that most other people have to hit in their job.

Listen, lets not even get into the bullshit that is the Covid crisis at this point. I know the virus is real, and I know some people die, but the reaction is overblown, the fear mongering is a form of control, and what the government is doing in some countries I don't think takes into account science anymore. Some governments are acting like dictators all in the name of perceived safety of their citizens.

But a direct example would be the role of the Fed. Now I'm not an expert on the constitution, but I've read that they are limited with what they are allowed to purchase. Once they started buying corporate bonds, essentially saying that they will throw as much money at this as necessary, they were breaking the law. Who is to hold them accountable? At one point there were actual fiscal constraints, but clearly that is out the window now. Everyone's credit card has a max spending limit, and its there for a reason.

You have to be an idiot to not see that the actions of the Fed are causing huge distortions in asset prices. The Fed continues to hold onto the idea of trickle down economics. "If we only make the billionaires a little richer, than maybe the working poor can buy an extra can of beans." The Fed is at the centre of the financial mess that we are in. If governments had to balance budgets, the looming catastrophe wouldn't be around the corner. But will they ever admit that they are wrong? They may think for the short term its better to keep the printing presses going, but I'm sure they all know what this means in the long run. I'm sure they do a much better job managing their own finances than they do the finances of the country. Its a disgrace they act so recklessly.

Now I'm not saying government is bad. Of course we all want healthcare and we all want the police to keep us safe, etc. But given the actions of the government and the Fed over the past 10 years, its far too late to make the system self-sustaining. The debt bomb will detonate soon. Either they try and inflate even more, thereby creating a wider rift between the classes, or they try and deflate is slowly, which they of course won't be able to and it will pop in a grandiose fashion.

Since the idea of fiat is dead, hopefully we are ready with a new system just in time, and can somehow convince everyone to switch peacefully. The government spending is now over 50% of the GDP I think, and this clearly cannot continue. Imagine an adult still living off of their parent's allowance!!! So a new system with actual constraints will have to rise from the ashes. It may not be BTC, but certainly some form of crypto and blockchain technology.

Going forward, people will demand some sort of accountability. Take the legal system as an example. Its already well established that eye witness testimony is very weak. DNA evidence, camera evidence, etc, these things carry exponentially more weight than what someone says they saw. Likewise, going forward, I think the monetary system will have to be based on something far more concrete than little paper IOU's.

Please don't anyone be so stupid to believe anything the government, from either party, is telling you.

 

[qlai]

I put most of my cash back into stocks. This maybe way too early and I will most likely get back to cash if there's a good pop. If not, I'm stuck

 

[deaddog]

I put most of my cash back into stocks. This maybe way too early and I will most likely get back to cash if there's a good pop. If not, I'm stuck

Any kind of a plan or are you just spinning the wheel and betting on red?

 

[murray t turtle]

I put most of my cash back into stocks. This maybe way too early and I will most likely get back to cash if there's a good pop. If not, I'm stuck

%%
Good place for longs buy/200dma.
BUT SPXS, SPXU,SQQQ going so well, nothing like an occasional daytrade. Many times JAN is an up month, SPY,QQQ............................................................................