Why are you still holding crypto? It's a market that trades just like stocks and it seems to be in a downtrend.
I'm going to mostly cash in Long-Term portfolio
- Thread starter qlai
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I been hedging past ten years, drawdowns have become extremely low. I been selling Index futures past few years on top of hedging stocks. I have developed topping formations which been automated, so recent highs, went short Indexes to hedge stocks and seeking top positions, but I then hedge the hedge in case pattern is wrong.
Hedging like any insurance has a cost, but I don't keep them on forever unless market truly is making new trend to stay.
Say long term your account is up $100k, market drops 50%, account now worth $50k and stock market shows buy signals, you have to wait to see if your account goes up. Hedged your stock acct is $50k but Index futures is up $50k, see buy signal, liquidate futures and buy more stocks or buy Index futures and hedge those.
There are always risks, but more knowledge one has, risks can be managed better.
i stumbled across this thread and here's deaddog again trying to understand the fascination with cryptocurrencies
i had an epiphany - you will or you won't.I just try and control risk by moving in and out of the market.
That's true. So far I haven't found a convincing argument. Does that mean I should stop looking? So far all I get is that I should be a believer. Almost sounds like a religion.i stumbled across this thread and here's deaddog again trying to understand the fascination with cryptocurrencies
it's not a religion. look at the turkish lira. if you lived and worked in turkey, putting all of your savings into btc/usd/yen/etc., would have been a pragmatic decision. i'm not saying put all of your life savings into btc, i'm not even saying buy some btc., my only point is, i now get it, and i think a bit of crypto belongs in a diversified portfolio. *edit, the caveat being, governments can't crackdown on the entire industry - if they do, all bets are off.
edit i want to build on this a bit: using the example of the turkish lira, and i apologize for excessive speculation - - the man in turkey who decides his government might not make the best decisions and decides to put each pay check into btc instead of a local bank (in any currency). the shit hit's the fan but he can buy a ticket to the US with his btc (it's easy now with Visa/MC/paypal bridges). get's to the states and uses a crypto off-ramp into any US bank. would that be possible with currency in a turkish bank? capital controls could stop the transfer. this is the decentralization argument. again, apologies for rampant speculation
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I’m not sure what you describe is a hedge in a conventional sense. For example Long Short funds are always long something and short something. Some periods they more net long and others more net short. They make money on fluctuations both way.
I didn't believe in crypto for the longest time either. Sure, we can all see that its been the best investment since 2013, but the magic behind crypto goes much deeper. What chance does the world really have against actions of the central banks and all sides of the government? For those people who it benefits, perhaps they like the status quo, but now with all this vaccine mandate crap, you can see how the government wants to consolidate power.
Crypto is perhaps the last chance we have to give the power back to the people. When you look at things like smart contracts, you see how transformative this can be for the side of the population that believes in justice. Imagine insurance companies refusing to pay a legitimate claim. You are literally at their mercy. But with a smart contract, if designed properly, its an issue that can be solved.
My views have changed so much in the past few years. Although I always thought of the government as being an entity that provided so much for the people and allowed for advancement of a country, I now see it as a major hindrance. They are high on power, reckless with their decisions, and in no way promote what will be of long term benefit to its citizens. You first take power away from the government by taking away of their control over the monetary system. Everything else will fall into place. Crypto is almost a better version of democracy because we are now at the limits of what this form of government is capable of accomplishing. Crypto to me is honestly a better way of doing things in the future because it ensures accountability.
Now that makes sense. Thank you.
Thank you. I'm beginning to see what you guys are getting at.
The US dollar, the currency of choice, is backed by the US government. I've seen the US government. It's made up of politicians. And there is nothing more trustworthy than a politician.
Now I have to decide who I trust more, politicians or computers. I'm thankful that I can still wander out in the bush with a gold pan and find a little color.