I'm going to mostly cash in Long-Term portfolio

deaddog said:
Ah; If you had held the fund you would have been down? Is that it?

So in reality you are ahead by being in cash.
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Correct, although with inflation at 0.41% per month I'm less than that. And again, this is too short a time and the motivation to go to cash is a double digit drop.
 
VicBee said:
Correct, although with inflation at 0.41% per month I'm less than that. And again, this is too short a time and the motivation to go to cash is a double digit drop.
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I let my positions take me out. Right now about 40% cash. Surprisingly some positions continue to increase.
 
I put some of the cash back to work. DOCU 42% down in one day WTF!? Will most likely be selling on rips (bear rallies?) So hard to watch the markets everyday and maintain long term view. I hope I don’t churn my account to death.
 
Since I have half my investments now in cash and the other in the market, I don't know if I should smile or cry about today's sell-off!
 
Nine_Ender said:
How many 25-30% crashes have we had since 2009 ? Dial it back to 10-15% corrections that are more common. How many 10-15% corrections have we had since 2009, and on average how much time between each one ?

My point is the chances of 25-30% crash less then two years after the last one is very small. There are reasons for that. For starters, every weak hand that sold off in March 2020 and was very late to rebuy after isn't going to be prone to panic sell now. It's too fresh in the memory bank. Remember, every move down requires sellers that have other plans for their money. Bonds are going to suck for years. Even the most aggressive rate hikes cash will only pay 2-3%. Most quality real estate markets already got bought up.

Now consider the earnings story. Earnings are growing fast. Dividends are growing fast. Share buy back programs suggest companies value themselves more then many retail investors do. Many short term traders aren't keeping up they are still thinking earnings are the same as 2019 or even worse October 2020.

My point is I'm not discounting the possibility of a mild correction at any point based likely on profit taking. My forecast remains no correction at all in 2021 ( I made that forecast a long time ago ), and I'll guess one correction will occur in 2022. No 25-30% crash will occur. If I'm wrong I'll live with it, and certainly the virus could derail markets if we can't control it at all. I just doubt we are unable to control it.

I look forward to hearing about you guys rebuying at the new floor, whatever that is. I'm not saying you won't succeed, but I used this technique a lot from 2009-2019 and on one year I never got back in for most of the year. From a capital preservation point of view, I did amazing. But that one year I missed out on a huge gain.
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since 2008, we’ve had three 25percent crashes (2008, 2009, 2020)
And I think we’ve had three 15ish percent sell offs (2010, 2011,2015, 2018)

and this is with strong tailwinds in the form of low rates.
 
Also worth pointing out, a stock market crash is a reference point but a portfolio's performance drives the decision to got to cash or not.
 
newwurldmn said:
since 2008, we’ve had three 25percent crashes (2008, 2009, 2020)
And I think we’ve had three 15ish percent sell offs (2010, 2011,2015, 2018)

and this is with strong tailwinds in the form of low rates.
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we also had 10percent sell offs in 2016 and early 2018.
 
newwurldmn said:
since 2008, we’ve had three 25percent crashes (2008, 2009, 2020)
And I think we’ve had three 15ish percent sell offs (2010, 2011,2015, 2018)

and this is with strong tailwinds in the form of low rates.
More...

Bear/ correction territory durations seem to be getting shorter and shorter due to help from outside forces. Makes me believe we will just see many more corrections going froward, tighter quicker in nature. Maybe who knows.

when I started following the market we would have months of sideways action, dull trading environments. Seems like now we are either going up at an unsustainable rate or down which gets gobbled up just as quick.
 
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