I'm going to mostly cash in Long-Term portfolio

[qlai]

If you are going to make a move like this, best to back it up by some research. Investment decisions based on feelings will yield random results.

No need, it’s pretty much a given that trying to outsmart the market is a loosing proposition over long time. But you have to consider your mental capital as well. Also, how close to retirement you are.

 

[Spaghetti Code]

No need, it’s pretty much a given that trying to outsmart the market is a loosing proposition over long time. But you have to consider your mental capital as well. Also, how close to retirement you are.

"Past Performance is not indicative of future blah blah bla".... but historically December through February are strong up months for the SP500. If you are serious about not outsmarting the market, and the playbook for the market for the past 100 years is available, why not use it?

For example, September is traditionally a down month, just like it was this year. I cashed out just after the August rally, and bought back in late sept. I'm that permabull that frightens everyone else here, but I absolutely will play the averages.

 

[qlai]

This video pretty much answers all questions better than I ever can. In my book this is a brilliant guy. At the end, he says that his son made fun of him stating that he was only right 5 times in five decades! lol.

 

[ElCubano]

No need, it’s pretty much a given that trying to outsmart the market is a loosing proposition over long time. But you have to consider your mental capital as well. Also, how close to retirement you are.

Where you are at in age is pretty much the biggest factor in this decision. If you had 10/20 plus years Id say stay put. If you are closer than that id take the risk as well. Good luck. You might be able to catch a double double super powerball pullback. The cycles will probably get shorter.

 

[lindq]

This video pretty much answers all questions better than I ever can. In my book this is a brilliant guy. At the end, he says that his son made fun of him stating that he was only right 5 times in five decades! lol.

That's an excellent interview. And IMO, one of his best comments was that he does not try to guess the future. But he does try to make sound investments in good companies, and over time they tend to take care of themselves.

With a long investment horizon, one needs to consider if they are an investor in companies, or are prepared to time the "market", which has not proven to be a winning strategy.

 

[murray t turtle]

"Past Performance is not indicative of future blah blah bla".... but historically December through February are strong up months for the SP500. If you are serious about not outsmarting the market, and the playbook for the market for the past 100 years is available, why not use it?

For example, September is traditionally a down month, just like it was this year. I cashed out just after the August rally, and bought back in late sept. I'm that permabull that frightens everyone else here, but I absolutely will play the averages.

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Good points SP code;
not that i would call SEPT sells ''perma bull''LOL
As far as feelings go, also have to consider feelings when the move is missed OP 25% cash is better than 100% cash.
One lady said ''i'm still out of the market, expecting a crash like 2008'' I dont blame her/ i would not be in the market also if i did not the difference between a bull market\ bear market + a crash + seasonals........
NOT a prediction /not insured by any federal agency.

 

[formikatrading]

Props to qlai for his analysis and instincts!

 

[qlai]

Thanks for kind words! Of course we are talking long-term here, so this is nothing but a small blip of nothing. Buy-the-Dip mentality is still too strong to believe in a crash, imho.

 

[murray t turtle]

Where you are at in age is pretty much the biggest factor in this decision. If you had 10/20 plus years Id say stay put. If you are closer than that id take the risk as well. Good luck. You might be able to catch a double double super powerball pullback. The cycles will probably get shorter.

%%
THAT;
+ what you are in. Rather sell UDOW early , most alll else late+/.................................................................Looks like So African virus = nothing burger, unless like Italy\heavy in old age, heavy in socialized med, heavy in smoking

 

[Nine_Ender]

Props to qlai for his analysis and instincts!

Seems like a bad day today to be arbitrarily in cash. What I'd note is how traders often react to 2% down days ( like Friday ) versus how they react to 2% up days ( like today so far ).