I'm going to babble for a few minutes about wheat...WEAT

[Specterx]

If you want inflation protection, just buy real estate. Maybe toss in some consumer staples shares or gold. Or better yet, just take out a mortgage on your house and put the cash in T-bills.

Buying an ag futures ETF is not like buying a warehouse full of wheat and sitting on it for years, it’s like buying newly-grown wheat coming in the front door at market every single month, then a month later selling it out the back, also at market. How on earth does that hedge you against anything?

 

[Cabin1111]

Since you’re not an experienced options trader, it is better that you stay away from options. There are too many variables, not just greeks, but also slippage on bad fills.

Have a look at DBC (Commodity Tracking Index), the chart looks healthier better than the wheat chart. Obviously DBC can down as well, but at least it’s an index and it provide diversifications.

(DBA - Agriculture fund is already made it’s move and is over extended)

View attachment 337251


Here what will happen:

If you get rid of your wheat, then wheat will go to the moon.

If you keep your wheat, then it will go even lower.

If you’ll sell your wheat and instead buy DBC, then DBC will go down and you’ll blame me.

If you don’t buy DBC, then DBC will go up and you’ll be mad at yourself.

You got me wrong...I probably have traded options before you were born (1980's). As reference look up Cabin111...That's me. I dropped Firefox and couldn't log into ET, so I switched to Cabin1111 (with Baron's approval)...I lost my gmail account too!!

What I am showing people is my most difficult trading decision at this time. I do about 10 to 15 trades a month. The amount is diddly/squat concerning my assets. If I held or sold, it would not effect me in any way.

I bought it for super inflation protection and I think I will semi keep it for that.

I will probably do covered calls...Hoping to not have it get called away.

A small income, while I wait and see where inflation is heading...

PS I have assets everywhere...Including for inflation protection.

 

[schizo]

I bought it for super inflation protection and I think I will semi keep it for that.

But how is WEAT suppose to protect you against inflation when it has been plunging in price? I just don't get it.

 

[Cabin1111]

But how is WEAT suppose to protect you against inflation when it has been plunging in price? I just don't get it.

I believe the dollar would have to drop against other major currencies...

 

[schizo]

I believe the dollar would have to drop against other major currencies...

That's a no-brainer, ain't it? Dollar does lose its purchasing power in an inflationary environment, after all. Anyway, here's a quick pointer on intermarket analysis. Hope it helps.

• The U.S. dollar trends in the opposite direction of commodities
• A falling dollar is bullish for commodities; a rising dollar is bearish
• Commodities trend in the opposite direction of bond prices
• Therefore, commodities trend in the same direction as interest rates
• Rising commodities coincide with rising interest rates and falling bond prices
• Falling commodities coincide with falling interest rates and rising bond prices
• Bond prices normally trend in the same direction as stock prices
• Rising bond prices are normally good for stocks; falling bond prices are bad
• Therefore, falling interest rates are normally good for stocks; rising rates are bad
• The bond market, however, normally changes direction ahead of stocks
• A rising dollar is good for U.S. stocks and bonds; a falling dollar can be bad
• A falling dollar is bad for bonds and stocks when commodities are rising
• During a deflation (which is relatively rare), bond prices rise while stocks fall

 

[Cabin1111]

That's a no-brainer, ain't it? Dollar does lose its purchasing power in an inflationary environment, after all. Anyway, here's a quick pointer on intermarket analysis. Hope it helps.

• The U.S. dollar trends in the opposite direction of commodities
• A falling dollar is bullish for commodities; a rising dollar is bearish

So I am NOT totally crazy!!

 

[kanellop]

Hello.

I decide to write some things for my most favourite Good, Wheat.
I believe that is the most speculate Product for the public traded Commodities.
The Wheat is for me one of the most important Assets that need a Human.
Everyday, many People in this Earth eat Wheat.
From the year 2002 that start my trading in futures contracts,
in that Good never had earn a Penny in total.
All my small profits that had from their trading I lost it in other trades to It.
For to trade, basically, the futures contract of the CBOT Wheat which is the most liquid Agricultural futures contract in the World right now needs huge guts.
But now, I will try to say some personal experience to it.
I will start from the Data that use for to see It.
I use the Metastock 18.4 Version R/T.
Need some monthly or yearly subscription for to use it that Software.
Also, for to receive live quotes for the CBOT Wheat need and a monthly subscription to CBOT Exchange.
Right now, I see quotes of the CBOT Wheat with 10 minutes delayed.
The reason for that, is that I have decide to monitor it without to trade the CBOT Wheat.
I am focus in Tick by Tick Data.
I have the ability to write personal Formulas in the Metastock Software because I now a little programming in the Metastock Formula Language.
Right now, I have focus to study the Moving Averages.
By the way exist and 2 other Metastock Indicators that likes me which are the Linear Regression Indicator and the Chande Momentum Indicator CMO.
I have create a huge number of Formulas in my Metastock for to try them.
Another factor of importancy here is,
in which Futures Broker to trade the CBOT Wheat.
I have try many Futures Brokers like: ThinkOrSwim, RJO Futures, Ironbeam, HighRidge Futures, Cannon Trading.
I have try and the Generic Trade DEMO.
I have find it interesting.
Right now, I use only one Brokerage Account for trading and that is in the ThinkOrSwim Brokerage.
But right now, I do not trade the CBOT Wheat only I see it.
Now for Fundamental Analysis,
I have Subscriptions to the weekly Price Perceptions Report of the Company CIS-OKC and in the CMR Agri Company.
Of course, exist and other Companies that have fundamental analysis for Wheat and for the Grains.
By the way, I watch a little and Weather Conditions basically from NOAA.
Here I want to tell, that exist a Company that provide Data using Weather Conditions and other Data like Satellite Data and make studies in Wheat for many Countries.
But their Annual Subscription to it,
cost about 10000 USD an amount that right now,
I can not pay it based in my current situation.
Never, I had make a Subscription to that Company.
Another difficult Factor that have the most traders is the Time that need it for to study and trade the Market.
Right now, as I have compute,
the Daily Time which is open the CBOT Exchange for the trading of Wheat is: 17 hours and 35 minutes in Daily base.
As you understand is almost impossible for 1 Person to watch and to trade in all the 17 hours and 35 minutes that obtain the CBOT Wheat for trading.
Humans have a regular job that consume time plus the majority of the People have and a Family and Children that need time in Daily base.
So, it is above than difficult 1 Person to follow the trade of the CBOT Wheat.

Kind Regards,

George Kanellopoulos.

It was the Wheat, the Wheat! It was on the move again,
From the farms of Illinois and Iowa, from the ranches of
Kansas and Nebraska, from all the reaches of the Middle
West, the Wheat, like a tidal wave, was rising, rising. Al-
mighty, blood-brother to the earthquake, coeval with the
volcano and the whirlwind, that gigantic world force, that
colossal billow, Nourisher of the Nations, was swelling and
andvancing.

-Frank Norris, The Pit

 

[PPC]

Hello.

I decide to write some things for my most favourite Good, Wheat.
I believe that is the most speculate Product for the public traded Commodities.
The Wheat is for me one of the most important Assets that need a Human.
Everyday, many People in this Earth eat Wheat.
From the year 2002 that start my trading in futures contracts,
in that Good never had earn a Penny in total.
All my small profits that had from their trading I lost it in other trades to It.
For to trade, basically, the futures contract of the CBOT Wheat which is the most liquid Agricultural futures contract in the World right now needs huge guts.
But now, I will try to say some personal experience to it.
I will start from the Data that use for to see It.
I use the Metastock 18.4 Version R/T.
Need some monthly or yearly subscription for to use it that Software.
Also, for to receive live quotes for the CBOT Wheat need and a monthly subscription to CBOT Exchange.
Right now, I see quotes of the CBOT Wheat with 10 minutes delayed.
The reason for that, is that I have decide to monitor it without to trade the CBOT Wheat.
I am focus in Tick by Tick Data.
I have the ability to write personal Formulas in the Metastock Software because I now a little programming in the Metastock Formula Language.
Right now, I have focus to study the Moving Averages.
By the way exist and 2 other Metastock Indicators that likes me which are the Linear Regression Indicator and the Chande Momentum Indicator CMO.
I have create a huge number of Formulas in my Metastock for to try them.
Another factor of importancy here is,
in which Futures Broker to trade the CBOT Wheat.
I have try many Futures Brokers like: ThinkOrSwim, RJO Futures, Ironbeam, HighRidge Futures, Cannon Trading.
I have try and the Generic Trade DEMO.
I have find it interesting.
Right now, I use only one Brokerage Account for trading and that is in the ThinkOrSwim Brokerage.
But right now, I do not trade the CBOT Wheat only I see it.
Now for Fundamental Analysis,
I have Subscriptions to the weekly Price Perceptions Report of the Company CIS-OKC and in the CMR Agri Company.
Of course, exist and other Companies that have fundamental analysis for Wheat and for the Grains.
By the way, I watch a little and Weather Conditions basically from NOAA.
Here I want to tell, that exist a Company that provide Data using Weather Conditions and other Data like Satellite Data and make studies in Wheat for many Countries.
But their Annual Subscription to it,
cost about 10000 USD an amount that right now,
I can not pay it based in my current situation.
Never, I had make a Subscription to that Company.
Another difficult Factor that have the most traders is the Time that need it for to study and trade the Market.
Right now, as I have compute,
the Daily Time which is open the CBOT Exchange for the trading of Wheat is: 17 hours and 35 minutes in Daily base.
As you understand is almost impossible for 1 Person to watch and to trade in all the 17 hours and 35 minutes that obtain the CBOT Wheat for trading.
Humans have a regular job that consume time plus the majority of the People have and a Family and Children that need time in Daily base.
So, it is above than difficult 1 Person to follow the trade of the CBOT Wheat.

Thank you for explaining everything. After reading your post, everything is now clear as mud.

 

[schizo]

So I am NOT totally crazy!!

What does the following chart tell you? Do you call that a hedge? Sorry, but I do think you are crazy. Just kidn'

 

[ironchef]

You got me wrong...I probably have traded options before you were born (1980's). As reference look up Cabin111...That's me. I dropped Firefox and couldn't log into ET, so I switched to Cabin1111 (with Baron's approval)...I lost my gmail account too!!

What I am showing people is my most difficult trading decision at this time. I do about 10 to 15 trades a month. The amount is diddly/squat concerning my assets. If I held or sold, it would not effect me in any way.

I bought it for super inflation protection and I think I will semi keep it for that.

I will probably do covered calls...Hoping to not have it get called away.

A small income, while I wait and see where inflation is heading...

PS I have assets everywhere...Including for inflation protection.

I wasn't going to post but I think @PPC didn't know you are an options expert so this post is also for him.

Your OP is kind of misleading. Most who read it couldn't tell you are a high net worth individual, that you are an expert option trader with decades of trading under your belt and that you have a large well diversified portfolio.

IMHO, you are quite safe even if hyperinflation suddenly appears because you are already well diversified.

Writing covered calls to collect some premium seemed a no brainer especially since it is a black swan protective move and you can afford to hold long term?