I'm going long here

[BlackBison]

yes i misjudged this one too. i was long from 1150 and got stopped out at 1080.
got in too early.


i am taking a small long position in eur.jpy tonight though. tight stop.

dow sub 10k, S&P just broke 1000. nice spot for heavy profit taking by shorts.

this is my second and last attempt to catch a falling knife, i think it is another great r/r spot.

 

[iceman1]

Quote from dsq:

wouldnt be surprised to see a monster morning sell off...however maybe the euro bank infusion in the morning will help stave off a rout.One of these days they are going to have to do something-i mean bernanke spoke and market tanked again...I dont think the market has ever NOT tanked after ben speaks...The guy is useless for markets.

I think paris hilton could deliver a more powerful confident presentation than that nerd!

 

[iceman1]

Quote from legend4life:

I'm just a ripe newb, but I made a bit shorting today, my best gains yet .

Any predictions for tomorrow?

the sun will come up ! (i think)

 

[frank grimes]

hey stock, the market fell another 5%. You are going to be the best contra indicator this place has ever seen.. Assuming you are not a complete psycho (well you may be, but for this forum lets assume not), you cannot possibly keep on whistling past the graveyard forever. One day you will finally be so exhausted from being 200% wrong, that human nature says you will do the cramer flip flop.......at the absolute, no doubt about it mother fucking low! So keep up the bad guessing, praying, whatever you want to call it, those of us who know what we are doing will continue to mock you relentlessly, looking forward to your upcoming sermons.

 

[staffpro]

cramer is right we are headed for dow 7700

 

[tyrant]

Quote from Cutten:

It hit my stops so I got out. I'd rather control risk and miss out on a potential rally, than stay long when I misjudged things and expose myself to an open-ended loss if it keeps going lower.

Hi Cutten,

You said you were long 75%. Does that mean that you took quite a big hit? I was thinking why didn't you scale in your position instead of putting everything in.

 

[piezoe]

Quote from iceman1:

Through all these years I find it so interesting that guys are in still in such rush to be the first on their block to buy a ---down----trend. Like, what's the rush? Guess some traders wil never get the risk reward ratio paradigm.... they only see the reward.

There are always counter moves to any strong major trend. So on any given tuesday anyone can buy counter to the minor/major trends and make some money. In fact a trained monkey could do that randomly and be right... sometimes.

But a trader with longevity in his/her future would wait for a classic sign of an interim bottom and a--- change--- in at least the minor trend. Otherwise you are throwing darts looking to catch some v-bottom reversal. You might catch it but is that really good trading...... buying random entry points and then supporting it with statistics/reasons.... like... the market (or stock) is down too far ?

The proverbial falling knife trade!

I have no argument with that. If you want to wait, fine. I am scaling in (averaging down). Something i would not do as an intraday trader. These are investment accounts i am talking about. And i am for the most part buying via selling puts, so i am locking in prices even lower than todays. So you say, why not wait and sell puts at an even higher price? Ok, fine, just tell me how low the market is going and i'll wait.

So, if the market goes to zero, or the sun burns out, i'm screwed. Nothing wrong with waiting, but i'm selling puts from here on down.

 

[gangof4]

not that you need me to say it, but...

congrats on the discipline. whether your sell turns out to be the 'right' move or not- it's the right move. so many would have leveraged up, held to break even or some other undisciplined action/inaction.

on big 'all in' type calls, it's very hard to stand back and make the unemotional decision to take the loss and move on.

i don't always make that correct decision and pay the price- hence this post...

 

[Cutten]

Quote from tyrant:

Hi Cutten,

You said you were long 75%. Does that mean that you took quite a big hit? I was thinking why didn't you scale in your position instead of putting everything in.

It wasn't one of my better days, let's put it that way. I got out of half at around 1025, the rest at 1016, and also lost a bit trying to get on that late mini-rally which also failed dismally, so overall dropped about 35-40 points per contract.

I didn't scale in just because I had pretty high confidence in the trade, and was expecting some "news" from the authorities. When it came, I just overlooked the likelihood of a big selloff later in the day. Looking back, I should simply have focused more on the downside if I was wrong, rather than the upside if I was right (common mistake after a good run). After the Bernanke news and subsequent rally, I probably should have raised the stop on the whole trade up to around 1240 (the ES was around 1243 when that pre-open rally hit). That would have limited my losses much better - if it was going to be a big up day, it should not have fallen back below there.

That's the problem when you have conviction on a trade, if you're wrong you tend to take a bath It's easy to get fixated only on your own view, especially if the market seems to be proving you right at first. After today I don't feel I have a good handle on which way the market will go, so I'm mostly in cash and just focused on avoiding further losses for now. Got a few puts and calls out-the-money in case of a really big move, but that's about it.

 

[MaxxHeatt]

Quote from staffpro:

cramer is right we are headed for dow 7700

The same tool who was screaming that July 15th was the end of the bear market. He's a joke.

"Mad Money's" Cramer: Get out of the market now
BY ZACHARY R. DOWDY | zachary.dowdy@newsday.com
October 7, 2008
Jim Cramer, the wildly animated cheerleader for the stock market, who on his popular television show tends to be more bullish than most analysts, retreated yesterday, urging stockholders to dump their holdings as quickly as possible.

Cramer, a former hedge fund manager who hosts CNBC's "Mad Money," shocked the business world by going bearish on NBC's "Today" yesterday. He told the show's Ann Curry the market is unsafe for at least the next five years.

"Whatever money you may need for the next five years, please take it out of the stock market right now, this week," he said. "I do not believe that you should risk those assets in the stock market."

Curry called the advice "very dramatic" after asking him to clarify whether people should pull out of the declining stock market despite the prospect of big losses in their portfolios, which may include traditionally prime performers. "I do not care where stocks have been," he said. "I care where they're going."

Cramer is best known on his show for screaming and pacing around the set like a sideline coach as he gives callers instant analysis. But in 2007, Barron's, a financial newspaper, found that his stock picks consistently perform worse than the Dow and S&P 500.