Quote from swtrader:
I think there's something wrong with my charts - I cant see the new high
and what's going on with that volume? it looks higher on the down days
Quote from Ivanovich:
I didn't say the high was taken out. I said it's not looking good.
As far as volume goes, that's been the story for the last six months, hasn't it? Machine volume (no humans) almost the entire time as stocks like AIG get gunned for the stratosphere on nothing. Hell, even Lehman was doing well last month!
Despite the volume (or lack of) on the up move, we sure had no problem hitting new highs.
I hope you're right, honestly. Its just that the odds and recent history are against it.
Quote from swtrader:
the fed succeeded in pinning the market above the 200 month moving average (16.5 year) it' got it above it, touched the next higher signifigant moving avg, then backtested the 200 month sucessfully once. it got us above that zone (the below 200 month avg) before a depression psychology 'jelled'
now, it's facing a dollar that is at risk for collapse
why would the fed keep jamming for new highs in the market, when it's done so much damage to the dollar to get where we are?
my primary basis for the call was technical, but technicals usually tell a fundamental story
Quote from S2007S:
The drop will come when its least expected, anyone who thinks the markets are going to keep on going is just an idiot, everyone believes the economy is going to be good as it was like it was just a few years ago, tech and dot com and all other stocks in between continue to make new highs. Please tell me the catalyst for future growth in some of these companies, how much cost cutting can a company do before it starts to actually hurt their bottom line. Where is the organic growth going to come from over the next 3-5 years?
Quote from Kassz007:
You've been saying this all year. What makes you think you'll suddenly be right?
Quote from wutang:
Makes sense to me (kind of). I think the market could go either way. If the drop was expected (able to be predicted) it would not happen. Logically, an extreme price move has to be unexpected (by the majority of the money) for it to occur or you'd have traders trying to take advantage of it and killing it before it could happen. So it will happen, but when, who knows? Doesn't have to make any sense. We could continue straight up and break new highs on the indexes for the next ten years or crash tomorrow.