I'm calling it - The Top Is In

Quote from USAtrader:

I'll put this out there. This will likely come as 0 surprise to other traders who have been profitable over any extended period of time. I've been trading profitably for around 10 years. Today is a fairly standard breakdown for me: Down in 22 stocks. Flat in 2. Up in 13 stocks. Outside of the top 3 gains and losses you've got 31 stocks left. The gains and losses on those are inconsequential, and essentially neutralize each other. On to the meat, the top and bottom 3: The cumulative gain of the top 3 exceeds by 4 times, the total of the 3 largest losses. THAT is the part that makes my day, and the part that typically will make or break my days. Today was a typical up day. Should (always) have done better.

The point is that the author of the quoted post is spot on. Even the best and most profitable traders may lose 50-75% of the time. It is very much about how you manage being right and wrong, and the unexpected.
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Just imagine what might be possible if you were to stop and think about what you are doing?
 
Quote from Nexen:

Good answer, I think he should just say that he was wrong and swallow his ego which is precisely what kills most traders, the need for, not speed lol, being right.

We all make bad calls, great traders do, great people do. It's part of being human.

It's how we manage the bad calls and how we manage the good ones that ultimately define us as good or bad traders. It was never about being right.

If you were wrong, we won't think any less of you, but if you were wrong and you keep acting like a spoiled kid, then yes, we will think very lowly...
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the moment the call is wrong, i will say the call is wrong

but those who call it wrong, before there is either a new closing or intraday high are doing the exact same thing you are accusing me of

saying that the market will make a new high (which is what you're doing by calling the top call wrong) IS a prediction, and an incredibly hypocritical one at that
 
Quote from increasenow:

hey cat...your call was as bad as mine...terrible
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really.......did the market make a new high i'm not aware of?


for the record, I called the top as one week, before the day I called it confirmed the last day of the month at 1057

the call has been as much as 38 points in the green, and currently sits at 8 points in the red from the moment i called the top confirmed

it has never made an interday or closing new high
 
Quote from swtrader:

the moment the call is wrong, i will say the call is wrong

but those who call it wrong, before there is either a new closing or intraday high are doing the exact same thing you are accusing me of

saying that the market will make a new high (which is what you're doing by calling the top call wrong) IS a prediction, and an incredibly hypocritical one at that
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New highs are a matter of time now, the last retracement was just that, a retracement.

I'm just telling you before hand, just like you did with your top call :)
 
Quote from swtrader:

really.......did the market make a new high i'm not aware of?


for the record, I called the top as one week, before the day I called it confirmed the last day of the month at 1057

the call has been as much as 38 points in the green, and currently sits at 8 points in the red from the moment i called the top confirmed

it has never made an interday or closing new high
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Weren't you only calling for a move down to 1019? That already happened. Are you saying now that this is a longer term top? Just wondering...
 
Quote from FB123:

Weren't you only calling for a move down to 1019? That already happened. Are you saying now that this is a longer term top? Just wondering...
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the thread was saying the top of this run is in, and i meant more than just a week

someone asked how to play it, and i said the 'easy segment' was a run down to 1019, the 200 month moving average (which went 3 ponts higher to 1022 this month)

that happened almost immediately, about 8 market hours

look at the voilume down, vs up in the last week - consistent with distribution
 
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