I'm calling it - The Top Is In
- Thread starter swtrader
- Start date
For those who have been following my commentary at various locations on ET, it was as follows:
1. I noted that an interesting event was unfolding. This was the END of a channel short within the Bull retrace of our present Depression. Ordinarily I comment on a channel level when I am speaking about the outer envelope of a nest of fractals. Four common levels I refer to are: channels, traverses, tapes, and BBT's. There are three finer levels as well. A bull retrace refers to a slower phenomena than a channel.
2. I also noted at that time that there would be a long channel following the just ending short channel.
3. At this point some time has passed and several events have occurred. do daily e mails and they have thoroughly anotated charts attached that may be glued together. I also do logs on a bar by bar basis that note the turning points of all fractals in the nest. I trade with colleagues daily form the open onward. Below is a litany of the consequences of my making others aware of what happened as is related to T666's comment above. As you will see, my statements did happen and they do happen in the way that I state as I contribute to ET.
4. The long after the end of the Bull retrace did ensue. It established a point 3 and the slope was not strong nor were the dominant portions of each of the nested fractals. In the prior short the "longs' which were then mostly nondoinant were not strong retraces either. Thus, a climate became established as the market moved forward after the end of the Bull retrace.
5. On 01OCT09 the long had a series of new pt 3's as a consequence of what is referred to, euphemistically, as a CP4 which means "clean page 4" (a paint chart of the various zones a pt may be in as the market forwards). That is the RTL was being crossed prematurely and the long channel was attempting after point 3 to reach an FTT within the long channel to end the long channel and start the overlap with a new short channel.
6. This process culminated when on bar 19 the long became a lateral and then as they say in CW: "Support became Resistance". The depression we are in now seems to not be able to anylonger complete long trends as non dominants between the short trends. Here, trends means channels.
7. So I commented at length on "non stationarity" aspests of the window one uses to regard the market's operation. The left side is moving to the right at increasingly a higher rate and steps. For example three "new point 2's" were left behind during the pm og 01oct09.
8. This morning, I posted my trades for the first 30 minutes. This was a slot after the pre open chart where the market dropped. I handed out the cash cow chart that showed this. And the trades were before the 10 o'clock news which had the usual three moves ending on bar 10.
9. Naturaly we are establishing the trendline (going to point 3 presently) of the present short channel which is following the prior failed long channel.
10. Items 1 through 9 point out a couple of things. Generally a person can know where the market is from my comments. Implicit in my continuing descriptive comments is the evidence that T666 is screwing up in his comments about me and indirectly he is stating he does not, apparently, know what is going on.
My comments in ET are to forward the use of TA methods for trading and, in particular, the Pool Extraction Paradigm. The mind building associated with using a deductive paradigm affords the person the ability to be in the market, be on the right side of the market and continually take the market's offer. This sums up as "you know that you know". the emotional aspects include support, comfort and confidence as the set of feelings. As you see in my posted print, there are limits and partial fills occur as seconds pass.
So I posted the traditional two way symmetric chart so common when something has begun, retraced on what is called "hope", and then when reality has returned.
For those who observe, you may want to list the order of the methods as they fall in line. Today, Elliot wave folks made the news.
I look forward to seeing several of you in Vegas; the list looks great; it ought to be particularly fun under the circumstances of the Depression resuming and being more than a month into the resumption.
I guess it is pretty clear by now that when I predict a year in advance, it happens. When I decline to predict, there is a reason: these times are very serious and it is important to always be on the mark and not reach too far into the uncertain future.
what the fuck are YOU talking about??? I stopped reading after the third sentence and saw the term "elliot wave" a bit further down. So not sure about the rest of your digression. But one thing for sure is this: This was a simple call, one of the tons of previous ones but based on a lot more sense and logic. The poster did not comment on what he thinks will happen next. Why should he, who knows. So, can you tell us why the heck you present your usual confused salad about something such simple. How can you make it this complex? Thats and art in itself.
I saw the term 'paradigm' used more than once. From my days in IT, that was a snake oil flush word. Maybe there was something to what he said, but he sure didnt take any effort to boil it down, and you always have to ask WHY.
Thanks for your kind words about the call I made. I took an effort to make it everything most calls here arent.
What I really wanted this to be, was a group analysis of what was indisputably a very interesting point in time from a technical analysis point of view. But TA is just academic 'dungeons and dragons' if it doesnt ultimately have a practical output, or is so loaded with 'maybees', 'coulds' or 'might happens' that it's useless
That's why I stepped up to the plate and called it. I felt it was as clear as it ever gets
That's something I had hoped to get out of ET - that critical technical points would never quietly slip by me again
( take a look at what happend to the spx the first sime it closed below the 20 month MA since 2003. go striaight from the bottom, to close back above the 20 month? dont think so)
I honestly don't know wtf your trying to say. Is this some sort of elitist ET talk? Either way you seem to be saying that market=down
not that hard.
On a side note, window dressing is over with. "i now hear this term more and more". Is this going to be a new word in markets for dummies after subprime and bailout. Like, the reason why things melted down again so fast was because a lot of the buying was window dressing. Well where are my damn croutons?
paradigm? That belongs in the "I am a douchebag" category.
not that hard.
On a side note, window dressing is over with. "i now hear this term more and more". Is this going to be a new word in markets for dummies after subprime and bailout. Like, the reason why things melted down again so fast was because a lot of the buying was window dressing. Well where are my damn croutons?
paradigm? That belongs in the "I am a douchebag" category.
Quote from wavel:
Well I read the whole lot and I've been left with a feeling that jack hershey clearly knows something that I don't.
TA is the only thing that works for me, albeit I have developped my own system after a lot of hard work and unfortunately some stupid mistakes and losses. I am eager to listen to whatever you have to say TA related because as far as I am concerned, everything else is just noise and bs.