I'm back in, tomorrow

[GrowleyMonster]

I am still in my TQQQ position though it is not doing what I expected. After much up and down in the premarket I was a few bucks in the red, then it took a pretty hard stabby plunge, putting me almost $200 in the red. The fear factor was definitely there. WTF is the Nasdaq DOING? My eyes and my brains were telling me that this is a time to BUY, not to SELL, but the immediate price action seemed to disagree with me. Okay, now I am only down $106 and looking at the day chart it is definitely scheduled for a climb of several percent. In light of where it is starting from, I don't think it will make a new record high but I am looking for maybe $131.70 partly biased by my simple desire to make $300 today. Finishing the day with my $8k account up to $9300 would give me a warm fuzzy feeling, yeah. And TQQQ is trying to go up for me. There, only down $60. Glad I didn't bail.

Stopping for a second to analyze things. there were two emotional drives in play. One was fear of losing a bunch of money. The other was of course the need to be right. Oh, and simple disbelief that this thing could act so irrationally. It is, after all, a reflection of the Nasdaq 100, which is pretty diversified though still tech heavy. If that makes sense. Logical thinking wasn't much help. Logically, the trend of the past month should continue simply due to inertia unless something happens to greatly influence the market. OTOH, logically there is no guarantee of this and no real reason why TQQQ couldn't drop in a day just from market sentiment feedback, to around $110 or so, or even deeper.

Well I am down $140 at the moment. It should be on the rise but it isn't. It should turn around and rally hard, and it might. I think I will set a stop at $250 loss simply because that is half of what I won the last trade and I would like to keep half of my winnings. Yeah I am thinking like a gambler here, a little. In fact. yesterday's low was $126.53 and the overnight low was $126.80 and it just made a low of $126.65 so I am setting a stop at $126.50 which represents a $220 loss.

Annnnnnnddddd before I could set my stop it dropped to $126.34 so I quickly sold at market. Now I am standing at $8787.81. Shame. I really didn't want to fall below $9k realized. But it is still going down. So I think bailing was the prudent thing. According to my homemade daytrade count reporter, I do not have any day trades available and so I will probably not trade further today.

So what did I do right? I didn't keep trusting my plan when it was obviously not working. What did I do wrong? I kept trusting my plan when it was obviously not working. Yeah I resolved to set a stop, a bit late in the game, and when the price dropped below, I immediately clicked out of the position. And the market sale filled at $126.47, higher than I had reason to expect. BUT... according to the plan I should have been up at least $100 at the opening bell, and it should have been climbing strongly out of the premarket. It didn't do that... which should have been the first warning bell. After making a second new low, I should have immediately bailed because the plan was not working and losses were growing. I would have saved let's see... I would have lost about $100 vs losing let's see... $9010 - 8787.81 = $222.19 loss over two days, so I would have saved myself over $120 if I had made a plan for that or reacted correctly and decisively. A first low after the bell can mean anything, or nothing at all. A second low or a second high and the immediate trend is established, the market sentiment has been read. And now I am down 1.6% for the day. I could have done worse but I could have done better, too. I should have been out of the trade after the second new low.

And now it is up a bit and climbing, with 4 green candles in a row on the 5min chart. Am I buying back in? Hell no. Yeah it looks like a good move but the risk is too high, The downside is a yawning abyss. I would be forced to hold over the weekend by the stoopid PDT rule, with no chance to bail out during the trading day. Ah my thinking is validated. Big red candle forming. And now another one. Headed for the grass, I think, and the day chart's trend might be breaking down. Monday will tell.

Here's the 5 minute chart after I bailed.

And the day chart

And P/L

So, I'm out til Monday. My anti-margincall deposit of $4k should be cleared and I THINK I will have a day trade available.

 

[GrowleyMonster]

In at 0900 with 190 shares TQQQ @ $129.86. All time high a few days ago was $131.93 I think. If I sell there, that's $393 profit so that seems like a worthy goal. Then again, if it goes up $4 from my fill price my profit will be $760. A better goal! Anyway I will get what I get. And now the bell is well and fully rang. I am up and down and up with the morning whipsaw but it looks really good for a very profitable day.

My deposit posted and so now my $8k account is a $12k account with almost $1k profit tacked on so far. I am feeling very optimistic right now. I have set my stop above my fill price, and extrapolating the trend since the opening bell puts a new all time high well within reach by the lunchtime slump.

 

[GrowleyMonster]

Darn. The lunchtime slump hit early and stopped me out. That's okay. Still profitable. And I might go back in with all cash before the closing bell if it looks good for an overnighter. Nasdaq still has a lot of juice left in it.

Pay no mind to the bold blue line. I was just extrapolating from the first 20 minutes, getting an idea of whether or not an all time high was gonna happen. The line said it would. The market said no, not yet. I actually had my stop just below the middle Bollinger line which is also 9EMA for the technocurious. But when I saw my stock (I know, it's not a stock, but the word just rolls off with more rhythm somehow) throw two red candles in a row, I moved it up and shut my eyes rather than give up more profit.

$12787.51 is where I started and now with the board cleared I am at $12941.41 for $154.10 profit or 1.2% so I'll take that for the morning.

Well shucks. I was thinking I would not have a good entry until after noon, but the price was solidly in the upper Bollinger band and my MACD-ish custom indicator threw me a buy signal so I bought 50, knowing I don't have any day trades left and can't sell until morning. Just buying 50 shares still leaves me some muscle, I can hedge with SQQQ if the price turns badly on me and mitigate my losses. But I expect to be showing some profit by tomorrow morning on this trade and at the closing bell I might add to it. As I write this I am down $11 since my re-entry. Okay, then. Can't sell and I don't want to buy more so I guess I will grab a shower and make a run to the bank and stuff. Mrs. Monster is a busy bee this morning and can't do any of our chores, she has a 1300 deadline to finish her latest udacity nano degree. So I have been waiting on her hand and foot while trading except she did make my morning cappuccino as always.

There. I knew I was stalling for a reason. I am in the green again with my 50 shares. Ooooooooh, I am so GOOD! I AM A GOD!!!!! I can still make my goal! Whatever it was I said it is... maybe I will have just one more teensy weensy quad shot cappuccino. It helps me roar louder.

 

[GrowleyMonster]

Okay, so I bought back in, 50 shares TQQQ and right now it is down $6 for the position. Meanwhile there was some grumble about RUMBL and on the big computer with the teeny weeny IB account I bought 30 shares and stopped out for $9 profit before it plummeted. I can't trade TQQQ on the IB account yet. Got to get special permission now, to trade leveraged ETFs, can you believe it? I didn't use to have to do that. I even traded TVIX a couple of times LOL! And I transferred $7k in there on top of the original $2k but of course it hasn't cleared yet. Tomorrow, maybe. So tomorrow I will be trading with $22k and only a little over $1k left in checking so I can't fund up any more. I need to trade up to about $27k, so I can leave $1k in Alpaca for API fun and games, and trade with the big kids on IB.

Meanwhile I really want to see TQQQ go up another $118 before the bell so my equity will be at $13k again. I really really want this. Are you listening, Great Pumpkin?

There. My 50 share position is in the green again. Go, TQQQQ, GOOOOOOO!!!! Mrs Monster is getting frustrated, doesn't think she will pass this final exercise in her latest nanodegree but she thinks if she turns in a failing exercise she gets a two day reprieve and she actually only needs a few hours. I think this makes like 5 python related nanodegrees Shell has paid for her to get. I really need to get her working on my trading bots.

TQQQ is finally throwing another decent green candle and away we go. My eq is standing at $12960, so another 80c on the share price will put me over $13k and it's all gravy from there. I THINK I will have another day trade open tomorrow and I can reload my half empty boat in the premarket if it looks good. Almost positive tomorrow will be another up day for the Nasdaq, maybe a major one. I might buy SQQQ going into the next dip.

I think I said I would get dressed and go to the bank and get some lunch for Mrs Monster and so far all I got is my draws on. I will check back in for an aftermarket report but I do believe it will be pretty good. 1.33% P/L so far. I think this will be a 2% day, at the least.

 

[GrowleyMonster]

End of trading. $13024 total equity. Before the closing bell I put the rest of my cash in TQQQ so now I have 98 shares, no margin and I am up $237 or 1.85% and yeah it coulda been better but that's not bad. And I think I am looking at $50 to $100 improvement in the premarket tomorrow. My high point today was $13076.31 but I got shook out in a big drawdown, then went back in with 50 shares and then added 48 before the bell. Hey, there is a limit to how much risk I am willing to take. The return could have been great but it also could have been so-so, which it was, and I was working without a net cause I had no day trades available and I couldn't sell. The risk to reward just wasn't good enough in my view to immediately go in with 100 shares.

Looking at recent action, I would say I have one more day of excellent profit from TQQQ and MAYBE one more on top of that, and then it heads for China. I hope to get some SQQQ action in there in the next dip, then pick up TQQQ again.

Sorry, no screenshot of the big computer with the tiny IB account. It is in my office and right now I am laptopping in the livingroom. Mrs Monster bought us a terrific couch and love seat with 6 way electric adjustment and drink holders and USB jacks, and I often trade in reclined mode with the laptop on my lap. I don't know why they call them laptops... you can't really use it in your lap unless your feet are propped up or it will sooner or later slide to the deck. But reclined, now that's the way. I have a HDMI cable run across the livingroom to the big screen and sometimes I plug it in so Mrs Monster can watch my trading from her desk as she works. But anyway it looks like I finished a few dollars down on my one share of TSLA on the trading computer in my office. No biggie. I think it is good for a couple percent tomorrow in the premarket. I hadn't been watching it and it made some nice moves the last three days or so. Hopefully it's still got a little juice in it.

So here is my 5min TQQQ chart at 2000. The gedit window is just there to block my account number so I don't have to edit the image. Pretty slick idea, huh? Surprised TradingView doesn't let me hide my account number.

The $83 profit is just from the afternoon trade and doesn't count the morning action. As you can see, we have a new record high and I think it is the new line of support for the premarket tomorrow.

I know, I know. Why am I trading TQQQ when I could have made more picking real stocks from Nasdaq? Well, I really like having just one position open when I am PDT constrained. By trading an index ETF I get better stability and more predictable moves. Sometimes of course I can't sell but three times a week at least, I have a bailout option and if I was doing proper day trading my entire week would be over in two hours or less. And still only three positions. I wouldnt be satisfied with the returns from QQQ but add the leverage and it really isn't a bad payoff.

So today I put my entire checking account except for about $1200 into my two brokerage accounts. I cant say it is really expendable money anymore so I will probably be toning down the risk a little. I really need to get my daytrade allowance built back up, is what I need to do, and start trading with about half of my cash instead of the whole roll. And only trade when I do have at least one daytrade available. So I am going to have to schedule my trading carefully around the cyclical behavior of the security I am trading, and make every daytrade used, count for something. And stay away from regular multi-position short term day trading for now.

$22k all told, in both brokerage accounts. I can probably scrape up another $1k and that makes $23k but when I migrate my funding to my IB account I want to leave about $1k here in Alpaca, so still only $22k max. I got to trade up another $4k to have $26k to actually daytrade with. THEN I will be trading more discrete stocks with a higher payoff, and not so much these ETF's though TBH I have done pretty good sticking with TQQQ the last week or so.

Aaaaaannd I just checked my big computer in the office, and my day's P/L is +$16 but I didn't make an entry until the afternoon and I wasn't really even watching it. Only one share of TSLA, after all, and only $2k funding. But I expect it to gimme some love in the morning cause I am holding it overnight. Now I think I will have a hookah and a glass of tawny port on the verandah and watch the world turn. Sayonarah see ya tamarrah.

 

[GrowleyMonster]

It's always nice to wake up to profits. That's the nicest part of holding overnight. My one share of TSLA on my IB account cost me $1829.65 and it is up above $1900 and now has a stop under it with $40 profit locked in. My 98 shares of TQQQ in my Alpaca account are doing well, too. Since buying back in yesterday afternoon I have over $200 unrealized profit on it and my total equity is over $13140, bouncing around a bit, and it is still only 0858, opening bell not for another 32 minutes. I just placed a stop order to lock in $100 profit and it is sitting just under the lower Bollinger limit but it won't activate until 0930. Life is good. I am not even going to look at my scanner this morning. All my trading money is out there making money for me. This isn't trading. This is accepting anonymous gifts of money which I gladly accept. Sometimes trading is hard work. Sometimes it isn't work at all unless you just want it to be. I think this TQQQ position should be good until lunchtime Friday, maybe into the afternoon. Currently I do not plan to hold anything over the weekend and I am anticipating switching to SQQQ for a couple of days, Monday or Tuesday.

My $7k deposit into my IB account still has not cleared so I am still playing with $2k, hence the single share of TSLA. But hey, 70/2000 is still 3.5% and that's the same percentage I would have if I had bought 100 shares with a $200k account. So don't laugh. I am minting money here.

Okay Mrs Monster just brought my morning cappuccino and it sure looks delicious. I am just delirious with happiness this morning. Everything going my way.

 

[GrowleyMonster]

Done for the day, 1,96% profit at $13202. Movin on up, yeah, dig it.

I had a play by play all ready to post but it was just a little too wordy. Instead, look at the chart. After holding 98 shares of TQQQ overnight, I stopped out in the big dip, and bought back in on the way back up out of it. I set my stop first to break even, then started walking it up to lock in profits and finally set it to lock in my equity at $13200. I resolved to leave the stop there, not run it up any higher, and let it run overnight again but low and behole, it stopped out. The heavy blue line. I planted that there before the stop so I would know where I needed to put that final stop. I don't know if I will jump back in before the closing bell, or not. I will if it dips again and starts back up while I can still trade. I shouldn't have had that last stop in there. It was too close to the action, and the 5 minute trend was too sideways and too volatile. If not for that stop I would still be in, without any real loss.

What did I do wrong today? Not much, but I did sell on the way down into the big dip, at $132.67 and bought back in at $132.99, throwing away 32c per share. I should have stopped out earlier, but of course I had no way to know whether this was a news-driven dip, or a general decline aimed for a new home in the $120 range. I think I was prudent but not wishy washy picking my re-entry. So maybe not such a screwup at that. And I was too quick to put a stop where it would guarantee my account would end the day at $13200. I was too enchanted by the nice round number and it affected my judgement. And first of all, that number just isn't all that important. Second, It was gonna finish above that level, anyway. My stops were otherwise maybe slightly too aggressive and greedy, so maybe I let sentiment interfere with logic. It didn't cost me a profit, but it probably trimmed it back a bit.

I really liked the nice even number $13200 but the only numbers that really matter are the percentages. Hard numbers just make you feel good. Feeling good is not the purpose of trading even though the enjoyment of the game is a definite side plus for me, and I make no excuses for that. I trade to make money but I also trade because I love the game and I love beating it. Anyway setting an arbitrary dollars in the account goal is obviously costing me money and it did today, I think. Yeah locking in some profit is a good thing but it's percentages that really matter, and stops need to be at a logical, price driven level, not a particular dollar objective.

My chart. That's not a dip, that's a chasm. I should have dropped out halfway down the second candle when it had broke down past 3VWMA and bought SQQQ but I didn't want to squander my one day trade and TBH I was just a little lazy about that. The blue line is where I decided my final stop would be, the one that stopped me out.

My P/L page. The flat horizontal segment down at the bottom is where I stopped out the first time. +1.96% isn't too shabby. I just got to keep that up, is all. Percentage percentage percentage. All I can get, not an arbitrary level. The difference between 13202 and 13198 is pretty much the same as between 13198 and 13196. Falling in love with sexy numbers is a mistake.

 

[GrowleyMonster]

I missed out on a lot of profit yesterday by letting myself get stopped out just so I could lock in an arbitrary bottom line. No way was I going to chase it up. When I got stopped out was the big buy opportunity. So I let it run overnight without me and bought 97 shares @ $135.51 at 0915. Stop at $134.90, a dime below support. Looks good. I should crush it today and tomorrow. I got one day trade available and it's in the stop order which I might cancel but I think I should stick with.

 

[GrowleyMonster]

Stopped out. $60 loss. Meh. I don't think I will have a day trade available until Monday and I'm not touching this without a day trade this late in the cycle. It could turn pretty nasty. The down side could be as much as $6/share. Not a catastrophic loss but a frustrating one at my level.

Maybe it's just as well. It just poked down below my stop again. I think maybe the up cycle is ending a couple days early.

I might pick some placid, low volatility steady gainer to hold until Monday, just to make a percent or half percent. Maybe a treasury bond ETF or something, got to check the market and ask Mrs Monster who is pretty good with bonds. Anyway so another lesson re-affirmed? Don't set a stop at the open? Or don't buy until the third candle? I think this just isn't going to be a bullish day for the NASDAQ. Or maybe right now is the big buy opportunity? I'm looking at a possible bottom reversal signal right now, at 0952. But I'm not in without a day trade allowed.

<EDIT> bought 100 shares PENN to hold until until. Volatility is fairly low and trend is up. Should be pretty safe.

 

[GrowleyMonster]

Yeah I haven't been posting on this thread. Nothing good happening. Down to $13k on my $12k account. The good news is I have my IB account up and running with $9k in it. The bad news is I can't make heads or tails of it. I got to learn the platform all over again. Took me 20 minutes this morning to set a stop order. It keeps trying to corral me into all sorts of algo stuff some genius designed to make the platform unusable.

Anyway not sure if I jumped in too early or not but I loaded the boat, or I should say both boats, with TSLA for the next few days. Probably a week. Hope to see the same gains that the last two rallies made on the day chart. Anyway, 10 shares in all, bought at $2001 and $2002 apiece.

My total trading money is $22k now so I really only need about $5k to put me on easier street. The plan is to keep $1k or so in the Alpaca account and the rest in the IB account, then add to the Alpaca account as I earn. If TSLA will be nice and go up another 50% I will be in pretty good shape. If not, I will lose a few hundred bucks stopping out. Risk is high even for me but the upside is tremendous and I believe worth it. Once I have all my day trades available I may rock some day trades with my approximately $1k of leftover cash and my margin. Or maybe just in the Alpaca account. I can't get the orders in quickly enough in TWS until I totally relearn it.