I'm 75% short, $100K

Quote from waggie945:

My guess is that the consensus is going to be completely wrong this year:
...

The trend is definitely your friend, and the trend is still up.
But don't be surprised if 2004 sees global equity and commodity markets rollover to the downside in a major way at some point during the year.

:p
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I concur! 100% downside to go :)
 
newestmember is betting heavy on red and I respect him for that.

Everyone else on this thread is just hanging around the roulette wheel whispering to themselves. If the ball lands Red, they'll want to know newestmember's secret powers of analysis, if the ball lands Black, they pat themselves on the back for being cleverer than newestmember.

:) Guys, either bet or stand back.

I've been skinned a few times last week in ES calling a reversal, but erased my accumulated stop losses with Friday's puke. I think there is a slightly better than 50% chance we'll see 1110 this week. DJIA looks like it's leading the S&P out of it's trending formation and NASDAQ out of it's fantasy world. The divergences between the 3 mkts last week have been very very weird. I would watch the price action in INTC options market very carefully this week.

The real question at this point is : do you take a potshot here or do you call in the heavy artillery? This is an exercise in bet sizing & picking risk exit points rather than crystal ball gazing for direction.


Quote from newestmember:

I've positioned myself 75% short the Nasdaq.

I believe today/Monday marks the top and I'm willing to bet the farm, which is exactly what I've done.

January 9th, 2004
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And I'm willing to lose $3510.

Traders can trade this market seven ways till sunday so long as they are disciplined!

If the market puts in a discernable top here, I will feel like I have a system with which I can make money, but if not, $3510 is a small price to pay....I mean, most of you make/lose 3X that amount in one trading day, so, this is small-fry......
 
FWIW I heard Joe Granville predict last week that we will see a pullback in the DOW and that the market is topping. I have heard a lot of traders have been picking a top in the homebuilders and recall guys bragging about going short CTX when it was at 94. When CTX got to 113, I recall hoping that these market timers had some risk management in place. That being said, I do admire a trader with cajones grande so my best wishes to you Newestmember.
 
Quoted from The Student:

I think there is a slightly better than 50% chance we'll see 1110 this week.

Now that's a ballsy forecast if ever I heard one!

:D
 
waggie,

:) true, it's not much of a stretch.

I don't make the Bill Gross "SPX at 600" kind of forecast because I'm trying to make money on swing trades, not make myself famous by shooting a hole in one.

Guessing on a 10pt move over 2-3 days is not a bad way to make a living if you go in heavy enough.

The nice thing about shorting low vol upward trending mkts is that if you pick a bad top, the potential damage is not traumatic since the likelihood of a gap up is small - makes it relatively safe to step up the leverage.

Trying to catch a technical retracement here - not predict reversals :)


Quote from waggie945:

Quoted from The Student:

I think there is a slightly better than 50% chance we'll see 1110 this week.

Now that's a ballsy forecast if ever I heard one!

:D
More...
 
I think it's worth noting that bill gross was very bearish at the bottom, and just now he is a bullish "convert?". Klaxons should be going off in contrarians minds, especially if this guy is actually trading the way he talks.

Goodluck,

P.S. A bit of an esoteric thought here. If bill is true to the bond investor stereotype, then he would be a conservative realist in his perspective. This would mean the whole way up he would think that the move was just "madness", and finally at the top the madness is quite convincing. Even the most cautious and realistic bond manager/investor may be tempted by greed....
 
I don't remember where I read it, but someone once said (paraphrasing)...

"The market will do whatever is necessary to take the most money from the most people".

I bought some OEX puts on Thurs just after the close after looking at charts and counting the number of "up" days over the past 2 weeks. I was tempted to hold them over the weekend, but closed the pos for a nice gain Fri. This market "should" be pulling back, but its not. Its starting to remind me of late 1994.
 
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