‘I’m 100% in equities. … You’re never going to make enough money if you have 40% of your money in bo

[Specterx]

One story doesn't make a trend. My sense is that 2019 was the bears' last stand - not just the uber-perma-bears who've been waiting on the next crash since 2009, but the broader market's basic assumptions that a secular upturn in rates is likely to start any day, that the Fed's bal sheet will one day be reversed, and so on.

The US election and other geopolitical events could cause volatility and hesitation, but IMO the broader setup here is for a multi-year capitulative blowoff as extreme compared to 2000 as 2000 was to the 65 years before it.

The recent huge run-up in TSLA might be the opening salvo.

 

[Overnight]

One story doesn't make a trend. My sense is that 2019 was the bears' last stand - not just the uber-perma-bears who've been waiting on the next crash since 2009, but the broader market's basic assumptions that a secular upturn in rates is likely to start any day, that the Fed's bal sheet will one day be reversed, and so on.

The US election and other geopolitical events could cause volatility and hesitation, but IMO the broader setup here is for a multi-year capitulative blowoff as extreme compared to 2000 as 2000 was to the 65 years before it.

The recent huge run-up in TSLA might be the opening salvo.

Tesla is a dog. Take it down.

 

[imjohn]

One story doesn't make a trend. My sense is that 2019 was the bears' last stand - not just the uber-perma-bears who've been waiting on the next crash since 2009, but the broader market's basic assumptions that a secular upturn in rates is likely to start any day, that the Fed's bal sheet will one day be reversed, and so on.

The US election and other geopolitical events could cause volatility and hesitation, but IMO the broader setup here is for a multi-year capitulative blowoff as extreme compared to 2000 as 2000 was to the 65 years before it.

The recent huge run-up in TSLA might be the opening salvo.

My guess is another 2017 type steady climb, eventually followed by a “market in turmoil” week that erases a year+ worth of gains, similar to Feb 2018. But I don’t expect any significant returns of volatility during not QE.

 

[S2007S]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/i...ys-cnbcs-becky-quick-2019-12-19?mod=home-page

Like I've said before, I'm don't like to call tops. But everywhere in the media people are saying it's too easy to make money and now an anchor on CNBC admits to being a 100% in equities. Not quite red alert. But getting orange and deep orange now.

Probably be another melt-up 1999 style before the real crash? What ya think?

That's all I'm reading now and the fact economists are one upping each other to provide big gains again for 2020, one guy said he sees returns north of 10% again next year. This is nothing but a fed driven liquidity bubble. I feel value of the market being too rich where companies wont be able to provide the earnings results to keep this market moving. It's getting to the point where "fear of missing out" is getting a bit old. That's the lame excuse as another reason why markets are going higher yet it's really nothing but fed fueling the market higher. There comes a time where you would have to be foolish not to sell a good portion of your holdings especially if you are near retirement or in retirement and have made double digit returns.

 

[S2007S]

My guess is another 2017 type steady climb, eventually followed by a “market in turmoil” week that erases a year+ worth of gains, similar to Feb 2018. But I don’t expect any significant returns of volatility during not QE.

Hahah markets in turmoil ...the market has had so many consecutive historical highs and huge double digit returns that right now a drop of approximately 2% would have cnbc running a markets in turmoil special for days. No one would be able to handle a drop of 2% after such non stop ramp skyrocketing market.

 

[S2007S]

Tesla is a dog. Take it down.

Tsla is nothing but hype. If it wasn't for the government tax credit, that's going away eventually, this stock would be 50% lower. Trading more like a tech stock than a car company.

 

[ironchef]

Tesla is a dog. Take it down.

Tsla is nothing but hype. If it wasn't for the government tax credit, that's going away eventually, this stock would be 50% lower. Trading more like a tech stock than a car company.

Who cares? If you are a Musk fan and bought TSLA after IPO you would be up 20X, laughing all the way to the bank.

Actually reminded me of AAPL after Jobs took it back.

 

[pipeguy]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/i...ys-cnbcs-becky-quick-2019-12-19?mod=home-page

Like I've said before, I'm don't like to call tops. But everywhere in the media people are saying it's too easy to make money and now an anchor on CNBC admits to being a 100% in equities. Not quite red alert. But getting orange and deep orange now.

Probably be another melt-up 1999 style before the real crash? What ya think?

Do you have evidence of some serious economic or financial market imbalance? I'm not talking about the asset inflation engineered by Central banks, because this support can't be destroyed by free forces. Market crash needs a bubble driven by fooled consumers, traders or investors. CNBC guy making calls is not sufficient evidence, though it may look smart to take it as a bad omen based on previous experience.

 

[Edmond]

buffet is always buying good well run companies with nice dividends. He snatches them up like a kid in a candy store... And in doing so he is taking away your/our opportunities.


And if you really know anything about him he is a greedy snake.

 

[ET180]

One story doesn't make a trend. My sense is that 2019 was the bears' last stand - not just the uber-perma-bears who've been waiting on the next crash since 2009, but the broader market's basic assumptions that a secular upturn in rates is likely to start any day, that the Fed's bal sheet will one day be reversed, and so on.

The US election and other geopolitical events could cause volatility and hesitation, but IMO the broader setup here is for a multi-year capitulative blowoff as extreme compared to 2000 as 2000 was to the 65 years before it.

The recent huge run-up in TSLA might be the opening salvo.

Possible. But in order for that to happen, corporate earnings need to start growing again. We just witnessed 3 consecutive quarters of negative S&P500 earnings growth. Current S&P500 P/E is at 25 (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/peyields). There is already a lot of optimism priced into equities and earnings have not kept up.