Illinois Becomes First State to Eliminate Cash Bail

[Cuddles]

The rise in crime in Durham is directly correlated with the elimination of cash bail in June of 2019. Crime quicky started rising.

At the end of 2019 they hoped that things would improve.... it only got way worse in 2020.

With violent year coming to close, Durham community hopes for more peaceful 2020
Dec 30, 2019
https://www.cbs17.com/news/local-ne...urham-community-hopes-for-more-peaceful-2020/

With the progressive city council refusing to fund more police most of the shootings go unsolved...

89 percent of shootings in Durham in 2020 are unsolved, police say
https://www.cbs17.com/news/local-ne...gs-in-durham-in-2020-are-unsolved-police-say/

Even as the community works to stop violence in Durham - it only gets worse. The "violence interrupters" and "community outreach" programs do not appear to help at all -- but they are getting the funding that should go to the police.

After 800 shootings in Durham this year, minister launches community-based effort to stop gun violence
Nov 28, 2020
https://myfox8.com/news/after-800-s...-community-based-effort-to-stop-gun-violence/

Note: Despite the minster's efforts December 2020 turned out to be the bloodiest month in Durham's history (until that time).

from 1st article:

According to recent data, so far this year there have at least 41 homicides in 2019. That’s an increase from the 34 reported murders in 2018 and the 28 homicides in 2017.

Increase in homicides since 2017. If bail system ditching is to show causation, why was there an increase from 2017 & 2018 if the bail system wasn't reformed until 2019?

2nd article:

DURHAM, N.C. (WNCN) — From neighborhood drive-by shootings to rolling shootouts on the roadway, there were 966 shooting incidents in the Bull City last year and 89 percent of those incidents have gone unsolved, according to Durham Police.

According to data released Wednesday, of the 37 homicides in Durham in 2020, 33 percent of those cases have been solved.

This merely shows an increase in impunity and points towards bad policing. Without knowing the previous number of shootings which article doesn't specify, this is poor evidence for the bail bond system being a fix for anything. Hell, you may as well blame it on the politics of "defund the police" and sabotaging stance police exerted on local governments.

3rd article

Community outreach, don't see the point that is different from the 2nd article.

 

[gwb-trading]

from 1st article:

According to recent data, so far this year there have at least 41 homicides in 2019. That’s an increase from the 34 reported murders in 2018 and the 28 homicides in 2017.

Increase in homicides since 2017. If bail system ditching is to show causation, why was there an increase from 2017 & 2018 if the bail system wasn't reformed until 2019?

2nd article:

DURHAM, N.C. (WNCN) — From neighborhood drive-by shootings to rolling shootouts on the roadway, there were 966 shooting incidents in the Bull City last year and 89 percent of those incidents have gone unsolved, according to Durham Police.

According to data released Wednesday, of the 37 homicides in Durham in 2020, 33 percent of those cases have been solved.

This merely shows an increase in impunity and points towards bad policing. Without knowing the previous number of shootings which article doesn't specify, this is poor evidence for the bail bond system being a fix for anything. Hell, you may as well blame it on the politics of "defund the police" and sabotaging stance police exerted on local governments.

3rd article

Community outreach, don't see the point that is different from the 2nd article.

Enjoy your selective quoting.... ignoring the shooting numbers and ignoring all the Durham crime data by week that I posted a link for earlier.

Bottom Line: Immediately after cash bail ended in Durham the violent crime started to rise rapidly.

 

[Ricter]

There have been recent surges in crime in dozens of American cities, including places where there has been no bail reform, Professor Chauhan said, noting other factors that could be affecting crime rates, such as the pandemic, increased unemployment and the dearth of affordable housing.

At a first glance it appears that rents, and homelessness, are rising rather quickly in Durham.

 

[Cuddles]

Enjoy your selective quoting.... ignoring the shooting numbers and ignoring all the Durham crime data by week that I posted a link for earlier.

Bottom Line: Immediately after cash bail ended in Durham the violent crime started to rise rapidly.

"Selective quoting" he says. They're your articles

 

[gwb-trading]

"Selective quoting" he says. They're your articles

Yet... you only quote a couple sentences --- to drive your particular narrative --- which is not the reality.

Go take a look at the Durham weekly crime reports for 2019 and 2020 --- tell me what the trend is for all violent crimes in Durham after cash bail ended in June 2019.

 

[Cuddles]

Yet... you only quote a couple sentences --- to drive your particular narrative --- which is not the reality.

Go take a look at the Durham weekly crime reports for 2019 and 2020 --- tell me what the trend is for all violent crimes in Durham after cash bail ended in June 2019.

You link articles that don't prove your point and get mad when someone points that out?

 

[Ricter]

Gwb's articles are suggestive, but because crime rates have also risen in other places without bail reform, other variables are also suggested.

 

[gwb-trading]

You link articles that don't prove your point and get mad when someone points that out?

Actually the articles show the timeline, provide the full narrative, and demonstrate the point -- especially when combined with the raw Durham weekly crime data.

 

[gwb-trading]

Gwb's articles are suggestive, but because crime rates have also risen in other places without bail reform, other variables are also suggested.

Tell us why the violent crime rates did not generally rise in Raleigh (the city next door) which still has cash bail - while the crime rate rose quickly in Durham throughout the period of June 2019 or later.

 

[Tsing Tao]

Gwb's articles are suggestive, but because crime rates have also risen in other places without bail reform, other variables are also suggested.

This is the problem gwb has on COVID too, and a lot of folks have on a LOT of topics. Equations are rarely binary, and frequently have numerous variables that can, and do, affect the outcome. Most people pick and choose the variables they want to focus on. "See? The dog is barking, therefore he must be hungry!"

Doesn't mean that certain items can't be a major influence.