I'll tell you what's wrong with you

Quote from Roark:

Pretty impressive volume spike in AGO:

Volume: 25,090,837
Avg Vol (3m): 3,168,400

Up 24% on the day. Still didn't achieve the volume that SPY and C usually have. You would have had to buy at around 10 AM and sold about an hour later to make coin on the long side. It was mostly big gap up and then not much after that.
More...

Thanks for the feedback! I actually pulled 5% out of it. Got in about an hour after the open, sold at $18 and left a little on the table. I guess you are right about total volume not getting to the SPY and C levels, so it probably isn't the kind of setup that OP is talking about.

Thanks again.
 
Quote from newtoet:

I guess you are right about total volume not getting to the SPY and C levels, so it probably isn't the kind of setup that OP is talking about.

Thanks again.
More...

I dont think Bbot was talking abt a regular stock getting upto C or SPY levels.
I believe he meant that the Unusual Volume is caused by some NEWS that determines a Herd psychology. At such times Everybody's mom and dad is playing one direction UP or Down. That means, if you see something going UP on Unusual volume, mostly in my observation above 5 to 10 times the average, buyrs run the sellers over. These buys mostly comprise of LONGTERM players who do not sell into the UP move (intra-day) as their targets are even higher. They just want to get in. This causes buyer/seller imbalance (Level 2).
And therefore create a strong trend/ directional move, IDEAL for INTRA-DAY players only.

Key thing here is that If you see the trade going opposite to you position - you should not hesitate to reverse your position as you can trust the Trend and immediately KNOW you were wrong and turn the looser into a winner.

OH and YES ... Use leverage in such plays as hey are higher probability setups. and can make-up for 70% or your monthly returns.
 
Quote from jokepie:

I dont think Bbot was talking abt a regular stock getting upto C or SPY levels.
I believe he meant that the Unusual Volume is caused by some NEWS that determines a Herd psychology. At such times Everybody's mom and dad is playing one direction UP or Down. That means, if you see something going UP on Unusual volume, mostly in my observation above 5 to 10 times the average, buyrs run the sellers over. These buys mostly comprise of LONGTERM players who do not sell into the UP move (intra-day) as their targets are even higher. They just want to get in. This causes buyer/seller imbalance (Level 2).
And therefore create a strong trend/ directional move, IDEAL for INTRA-DAY players only.

Key thing here is that If you see the trade going opposite to you position - you should not hesitate to reverse your position as you can trust the Trend and immediately KNOW you were wrong and turn the looser into a winner.

OH and YES ... Use leverage in such plays as hey are higher probability setups. and can make-up for 70% or your monthly returns.
More...

+1
 
Quote from newtoet:

Interesting thread. Would AGO yesterday (Friday) fit into your method? I traded that for a nice gain, and it seems to go along with what you are saying.
More...

It probably fits retrospectively, I didn't look at it, but that's just because I'm more of a conservative trader: I like trading stocks that have very thick inside bids and offers on normal days, and then suddenly explode in volume. The beauty of those is that you can see the bid or offer dwindle down very fast level after level, but slow enough for you to get in aggressively or add to your position.

If a stock reaches astronomical levels of volume on some day, I want it's ATR for the previous days be as low as possible so I can leverage aggressively. Just pull up your Level2 on stocks like SIRI, CIM, LVLT, NSM, NOVL, or XLF on a normal day and you'll see what I mean by thick levels. Use that as a benchmark because even when volume kicks in on those stocks, the levels still stay thick.

But honestly that's just a personal preference; I'm still a student of the game and I still venture into flimsy-level-type stocks. Just be careful on stuff like AGO because the level2 information isn't as clear as its T&S when volume kicks in: the thinner the levels, the more prone you might be to getting stopped out by market-making intra-minute pullbacks.

And like jokepie mentioned above, these account for the majority of my profits in a given month. Sometimes I might not get such a stock, but hey, that's part of the game.

Also don't forget to STAY AWAY from these stocks once volume dies down. It's very easy to get addicted when one day you made a couple of hundred bucks. THE PRODUCT CHANGES! That's important even when you trade your bread and butter. Avoid the symbol once circumstances change even the slightest.
 
Quote from bbot23:

You're not trading the right product. It's not that you lack discipline, focus, passion, money, or time. It's not that you make mistakes from time to time and have no "edge."

The stock you're currently trading just sucks, and you keep going after it even when it doesn't put out, even when your signal told you to trade it YESTERDAY and not today, even when you lost money, even when there's no volume, even when it's the choppiest piece of crap you've ever laid your eyes on, even when you tell yourself it's the last time you're trading it.

Do you know why I netted 4g's last month on EWJ over 3 trading days? Because there was an earthquake, a tsunami, and nuke alerts that made everyone run for it.

Do you know why I netted 1500 on NSM last week's tuesday? Because there was good news on it and it was HOT.

Do you know why I netted 2g's monday on LVLT? Because it was part of a buyout.

There's plenty more of those, but what do those three have in common? news and VOLUME

Do you know what I've lost since then? A lot! On mistakes! I panicked a bunch of times, made keystroke mistakes, only took 1 or 2 cent profits instead of 5, got shaken out here and here, didn't listen to myself, and yet what happened? I came out on top. Why? Because the instruments I used were amazing. Because any hesitation was quickly confirmed or disconfirmed. Because the stock I played could not be GAMED by some jerk-off with millions to play with when the stock trades ridiculously low volume. Because it was a short when it printed RED, a long when it printed GREEN. Because the L2 didn't fake me out at all.

Oh I almost forgot. All of the above were day trades. I didn't give a damn WHAT news was on them. I just cared that there was something! Seriously, whatever you're doing, you're overthinking it.

Anyway. Guess what I did after that? I didn't go back to those products!

The difference between you and me is that I play stocks that don't bullshit. Your "stats" include a lot of unpredictable events like news and big ballers in Russia and China that manipulate prices to screw with algos and little dudes like you and me. You will get burned by situations like that, so avoid them. But when there's a train, you hop on it. I don't care if you're a sissy, if you make mistakes, if you miss the level, if you've lost on the stock before, if you pay crazy commission, if you're not sure on your technical analysis, or if you're the biggest amateur trader in your prop shop. The point is, you have to pick the right stock. The rest is easy.
More...

Excellent post.
 
Quote from bbot23:

It probably fits retrospectively, I didn't look at it, but that's just because I'm more of a conservative trader: I like trading stocks that have very thick inside bids and offers on normal days, and then suddenly explode in volume. The beauty of those is that you can see the bid or offer dwindle down very fast level after level, but slow enough for you to get in aggressively or add to your position.

If a stock reaches astronomical levels of volume on some day, I want it's ATR for the previous days be as low as possible so I can leverage aggressively. Just pull up your Level2 on stocks like SIRI, CIM, LVLT, NSM, NOVL, or XLF on a normal day and you'll see what I mean by thick levels. Use that as a benchmark because even when volume kicks in on those stocks, the levels still stay thick.

But honestly that's just a personal preference; I'm still a student of the game and I still venture into flimsy-level-type stocks. Just be careful on stuff like AGO because the level2 information isn't as clear as its T&S when volume kicks in: the thinner the levels, the more prone you might be to getting stopped out by market-making intra-minute pullbacks.

And like jokepie mentioned above, these account for the majority of my profits in a given month. Sometimes I might not get such a stock, but hey, that's part of the game.

Also don't forget to STAY AWAY from these stocks once volume dies down. It's very easy to get addicted when one day you made a couple of hundred bucks. THE PRODUCT CHANGES! That's important even when you trade your bread and butter. Avoid the symbol once circumstances change even the slightest.
More...

Thanks bbot, nice thread.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top